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August 29 MLB DFS: Vogt For Stephen
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August 29 MLB DFS: Vogt For Stephen

00:43 Starting Pitchers
10:44 Catchers
13:28 First Base
15:47 Second Base
17:59 Shortstops
20:05 Third Base
22:20 Outfield
27:04 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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August 29 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Jose Fernandez (MIA)

Tier Two

2) Jake Arrieta (CHC)

Tier Three

3) Carlos Martinez (STL)

Tier Four

4) Yu Darvish (HOU)

5) Tanner Roark (WAS)

6) Rick Porcello (BOS)

7) Matt Shoemaker (LAA)

8) Michael Pineda (NYY)

9) Joe Musgrove (HOU)

Tier Five

10) Trevor Bauer (CLE)

11) Rafael Montero (NYM)

Jose Fernandez (MIA) is the clear top starting pitcher on this slate. His dominance has been incredible this season (35.4 K percentage), which gives him a great combination of floor and ceiling. It’s scary to think that his 2.91 ERA might actually be on the high side given a 2.24 FIP and 2.36 xFIP. Facing a below average Mets offense, we like anchoring cash games with Fernandez and see enough flexibility on the offensive side to make it work while still fitting in some high upside hitters.

Jake Arrieta (CHC) is equally as safe as Fernandez. He’s a larger favorite (-290), and we’re expecting a very low IRTA (implied run total against). The reason for the gap is simply K upside. With a 24.5 K percentage, Arrieta doesn’t have the ceiling we’d hope for out of such an expensive hitter. As a result, he actually ranks a bit closer to our tier three starting pitcher, Carlos Martinez (STL), who we love in tournaments. The price isn’t enough of a discount from Fernandez for us to seriously consider him in cash (more viable on FanDuel), but the Brewers swing and miss ways do give him palpable upside (25.4 K percentage against RHP).

On DraftKings part of the reason it’s viable to pay up for Fernandez is the ability to get a second starting pitcher at just above $7,000. The two options that stick out are Matt Shoemaker (LAA) (Reds are 23rd in wRC+ against RHP) and Michael Pineda (NYY) (Royals are 29th in wRC+ last 30 days). While Pineda is one spot lower in our ranking, they’re essentially tied. With Shoemaker’s K rate waning recently, the coin flip in our minds goes the way of Pineda’s higher K upside.

In tournaments you can overpay for a Rick Porcello (BOS) or Yu Darvish (TEX) and hope they wind up with similar scores to Fernandez/Arrieta at a lower tag. On DraftKings, Rafael Montero (NYM) is very interesting at the bare minimum price tag. The Marlins are a good team to pick on with RHP. Montero’s AAA numbers are wretched this season, but the recent results seem to indicate he’s turned a corner. You can pair him with Fernandez and still get plenty of offensive upside in your lineup.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET)

2) Yasmani Grandal (LAD)

3) Russell Martin (TOR)

4) Gary Sanchez (NYY)

5) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

Stephen Vogt (OAK) has been our go to catcher on slates where we can’t afford to pay up. That continues Monday as Vogt gives you a top three lineup spot, on the road in a plus hitting environment, and with the platoon edge against a rookie RHP who will allow some power (great K/BB stuff for Musgrove though). If you’re paying up the best options are Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (in Coors, Gray has struggled recently, positive well-hit delta) and Russell Martin (TOR) (strong second half, plus hitter’s park versus a subpar LHP). With such an elite starting pitcher option in play, it’s also possible to simply full punt the position, and we’ll keep our eye out for these options when lineups are released.

First Base Rankings

1) David Ortiz (BOS)

2) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

3) Chris Davis (BAL)

4) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

5) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

The first base position is absolutely loaded tonight. You’ve got Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) in Baltimore versus Wade Miley (.339 wOBA and .164 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2014 ). Then there’s a scorching hot Chris Davis (BAL) in that same game, facing a decent RHP in Marco Estrada, but one that will give Davis chances to flash his power (35% career GB rate for Estrada). And this is all before we hit an also hot Miguel Cabrera (DET) against the human battering ram that is James Shields and Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) (seven homers in August) in Coors Field against Jon Gray (20 ERs over his last four starts). We’ve got a slight lean the way of Davis’ power, but you can go a multitude of ways here. CJ Cron (LAA) is a viable cheap option, while Brandon Moss (STL) and Mike Napoli (TEX) represent two of our favorite tournament pivots.

Second Base Rankings

1) Matt Carpenter (STL)

2) Daniel Murphy (WAS)

3) Jose Altuve (HOU)

4) Trea Turner (WAS)

5) Robinson Cano (SEA)

The best projected values at the position are Matt Carpenter (STL) (plus park shift and facing a subpar RHP and bullpen) and Jose Altuve (HOU) (nuts splits against LHP and Manaea has struggled, particularly outside of Oakland). These options aren’t ideal for roster construction however. We’d prefer to go cheap. Hopefully Greg Garcia (STL) leads off for the Cardinals, but that’s far from a sure thing. If he doesn’t, the best alternatives are Scooter Gennett (MIL) (Martinez does still have issues with LHBs) and Dee Gordon (MIA) (great price to buy that speed upside almost regardless of matchup).

Shortstop Rankings

1) Corey Seager (LAD)

2) Manny Machado (BAL)

3) Carlos Correa (HOU)

4) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

5) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

Like at second base, viable more expensive options exist here, particularly Carlos Correa (HOU) and Francisco Lindor (CLE), who each face LHPs who will allow power. However, also like at second base, we’d prefer to go cheaper here. Andrelton Simmons (LAA) is a full punt on DraftKings, while on FanDuel Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) and Tim Anderson (CHW) give you mid, mid-low prices targets that hold a bit more upside.

Third Base Rankings

1) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

2) Kris Bryant (CHC)

3a) Matt Carpenter (STL)

3b) Justin Turner (LAD)

5a) Manny Machado (BAL)

5b) Nolan Arenado (COL)

The other corner infield position is also completely stacked on a full slate, and you can go a variety of ways in tournaments. In cash games we’d really like to look the route of Josh Donaldson (TOR) (always a near top play versus a LHP, homered in two straight games, including four yesterday) or Justin Turner (LAD) (reverse splits hitter versus a reverse splits pitcher in Coors Field for the team with the highest total). Kris Bryant (CHC) is the best tournament pivot as ownership could be somewhat reduced if others are flocking to Donaldson/Turner. He’ll face rookie LHP Steven Brault.

Outfield Rankings

1) Bryce Harper (WAS)

2) Mike Trout (LAA)

3) Jose Bautista (TOR)

4) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

5) Kris Bryant (CHC)

6) George Springer (HOU)

7) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

8) Mookie Betts (BOS)

9) Dexter Fowler (COL)

10) Rajai Davis (CLE)

11) Brandon Moss (STL)

12) Trea Turner (WAS)

13) JD Martinez (DET)

14) Joc Pederson (LAD)

15) David Dahl (COL)

Despite games in Coors Field, Bryce Harper (WAS) is our top outfielder and top overall hitter by a pretty clear margin. An improving well-hit rating, elite power splits versus RHP, and a cake matchup against Jake Thompson (walks equals to strikeouts through four starts and 2.33 HR/9, ZiPS projected 4.94 ERA). He’s our preference for a cash game spend, while Mike Trout (LAA) and Jose Bautista (TOR) serve as fine cheaper alternatives. On both sites you’re using a little bit of a studs and duds approach. Or, at least, it’s hard to pound the mid to mid-high options. At mid or mid-low pricing, Jarrod Dyson (KC) sticks out as the best option if leading off. We’re enamored with the speed upside, and he’s currently sporting a career best 0.71 EYE. Some Dyson alternatives or complements (especially on FanDuel where paying up may not be viable) include Carlos Beltran (TEX) (just too cheap on DraftKings for a home matchup against a non-elite SP) and Rajai Davis (CLE) (very accessible price point on FanDuel). Secondary options include the Colorado Outfielders and Detroit Outfielders, all of whom are in high upside situations. The prices may not be exactly where we want them, but you could force some exposure there in cash games or at the very least on tournament teams where price isn’t as important.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Lose Angeles Dodgers

Tier Two

2) Boston Red Sox

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Chicago Cubs

5) Washington Nationals

Tier Three

6) Colorado Rockies

7) Detroit Tigers

8) Cleveland Indians

It’s tough to mini stack any singly particular team in cash games and definitely unnecessary to full stack on a larger slate with a multitude of offensive options. The Jays and Coors Field are likely the most popular tournament stacks. We like the Tigers yet again in tournaments – a multitude of hitters with positive deltas in our well-hit tool and facing a pitcher in James Shields who is liable to yield multiple homers.

Tournament Stacks

-St. Louis Cardinals (a lot of hot hitters in this lineup and a cold one, Matt Carpenter, seems to be getting back to normal finally for the first time since returning from the DL; plus park shift and guaranteed nine innings on the road)

-Houston Astros (Manaea has struggled on the road, likely because of how fly ball oriented he is, which causes him to yield larger power numbers outside of Oakland; Astros always a good tournament team since they are so event oriented)

MLB Daily Analysis

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