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August 3 MLB DFS: Bombs Away With JBJ
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Welcome to August 3 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 3 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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August 3 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
07:56 Catcher
10:25 First Base
13:08 Second Base
16:00 Third Base
18:20 Shortstop
22:24 Outfield
27:21 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

August 3 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Corey Kluber (CLE) is in a tough matchup against a Yankees team that ranks second in wRC+ against RHP, and frankly our model could not care less. He still rates as far and away both the best overall SP and best value SP. Our high baseline K% for Kluber of 34% feels aggressive until you take a look at his game log. He actually hasn’t posted a K% south of 34.5% in any of his last nine starts.

The main competition for Kluber up top is Alex Wood (LAD), who is a hefty favorite (-250) with a low IRTA (3.3). On seasonal metrics this is somewhat close, at least from a value perspective on FD where Wood is meaningfully cheaper. However, we’d only pivot off Kluber to Wood in cash games as gradually declining velocity and some mediocre recent outings has led us to tame our baseline projection on Wood.

The best mid-tier value on both sites is Rick Porcello (BOS), who had his start pushed back following last night’s postponement. Porcello boasts an above average K rate, but is tough to get a handle on as he’s become homer prone the last few seasons – exchanging ground balls and walks for harder hit aerial contact and strikeouts. Regardless, the matchup is phenomenal against a White Sox team that ranks 27th in WRC+ against RHP on the season and boasts a pretty unimposing lineup with Melky Cabrera and Todd Frazier traded and Avisail Garcia on the DL. He’s a nice tournament pivot off of Kluber on both sites if you want to spend more on bats (better value on FD). Porcello is priced more aggressively on DK, and it’s tough to justify paying for him as an SP2 even though he’s our second best SP value on that site.

If you don’t want to dip into the very risky cheap options for your SP2 on DK, Collin Mchugh (HOU) is in play. There’s definitely some uncertainty here as McHugh makes just his third start back from the DL. However, a 12.0% SwStr rate through his first two starts is some indication that he’s fully healthy. The Rays have the third highest K% against RHP.

With Kluber boasting an expensive salary, it’s reasonable to just go nearly as cheap as possible in your SP2 spot on DK. It’s not a move for the faint of heart as this group involves a lot of risk. Our favorite option is Chad Kuhl (PIT), who remarkably seems to always find himself somewhat in play despite an underwhelming skill set (basically below average in the three main skill stats). What Kuhl does have going for him is a hint of upside in the current K rate (based on velocity), a great pitching environment in PNC Park, and a matchup against a below average Reds team that has him with some of the more favorable Vegas odds on the slate (-166, 4 IRTA). The other options are model likes are littered with risk and tournament options only – Trevor Cahill (KC) (nice tag but last two starts are a red flag), Sean Newcomb (ATL) (decent K rates but horrible Vegas odds), and Chris Tillman (BAL) (horrific peripherals but okay matchup and K stuff looks better recently).

Catcher

It’s all about Evan Gattis (HOU) at the catcher position in this slate. Gattis will have the platoon edge and hit in the middle of the Astros’ lineup. Since 2015, Gattis has generated a .213 ISO vs. LHP. The price tag on DK feels appropriate at $4,200, but the Red Sox values make this an easy fit.

If you needed salary relief, Robinson Chirinos (TEX) will have the platoon edge against Adalberto Mejia (.174 ISO allowed to RHBs). He won’t hit in a good lineup spot (we have him projected to hit eight), but the price tag is cheap enough to consider him at an ugly position behind Gattis. Austin Barnes (LAD) joins the salary relief conversation on FD where the price tag is much lighter ($2,400 on that site vs. $4,200 on DK).

You won’t get a discount on Welington Castillo (BAL), but he can be considered in tournaments. He’ll have the platoon edge against a fly ball oriented pitcher in Baltimore.

First Base

Hanley Ramirez (BOS) projects as a cash game lock in this slate. Hanley is by far the top value at the position. His price tag is discounted around the industry, and his matchup vs. Miguel Gonzalez is a good one as Gonzalez struggles to keep the ball in the park and carries a 5.60 xFIP.

The best cash alternative at the position is another cheap player – Mike Napoli (TEX). Napoli will once again have the platoon edge against a subpar pitcher.

On DK, we feel like Yuli Gurriel (HOU) deserves merit as well given the light price tag ($3,200). Gurriel (29.9%) has generated a higher HHR this season than Hanley (22%) and Napoli (24.5%). With this in mind, if you believe that Hanley will be the chalkier target, using Gurriel in tournaments is a shrewd move.

Joey Votto (CIN) (love the matchup vs. Chad Kuhl, a pitcher that can’t get LHBs out – .374 wOBA allowed to LHBs since LY), Miguel Cabrera (DET) and Trey Mancini (BAL) are names to consider in tournaments.

Second Base

Jose Altuve (HOU) is the top projected scorer at second base, and he’s usable in all formats despite an appropriate price tag. With the platoon edge Altuve has generated a .406 wOBA and .188 ISO since 2015.

Eduardo Nunez (BOS) has 2B eligibility on FD, where he’s a viable alternative to Altuve. Nunez is the best value at the position on that site, but if you’re playing him alongside Kluber he might end up being your most expensive spend. We’d rather dip down to Logan Forsythe (LAD) in cash games, who’s really cheap on both sites and will have the platoon edge. Forsythe has been awesome vs. LHP, posting a .384 wOBA and .238 ISO vs. southpaws since 2015.

Brian Dozier (MIN) at $3,300 on FD qualifies as a splits the difference target at the position against the home run prone A.J. Griffin.

Jonathan Schoop (BAL) and Robinson Cano (SEA) are two options to consider in tournaments. Schoop’s HHR has been on the rise lately while Cano finds himself in a matchup against Trevor Cahill, who’s coming off two disaster starts.

Third Base

We have a familiar name at the top as Manny Machado (BAL) is the top projected scorer at third base. Machado’s HHR is on the rise (31.3% over the L15) and the production has been better of late. He’ll have a matchup against Matt Boyd, who’s surrendered a .360 wOBA and a .206 ISO to RHBs since 2015. We love Machado in all formats.

Adrian Beltre (TEX) and Justin Turner (LAD) are the best alternatives at the position on FD while Miguel Sano (MIN) joins the conversation with a light price tag ($4,100) on DK. A.J. Griffin has surrendered a 2.52 HR/9 mark to RHBs this season, but he’s also generated a 25.6% K rate vs. RHBs as opposed to a sub 14% K rate vs. LHBs this season. All in all we like to pick on Griffin more with LHBs, but since he’s so power prone we think picking on him with Sano is fair. Of the group, Beltre likely carries the better matchup against Adalberto Mejia but the price tag feels appropriate on FD ($3,800). This is also a bucket of players that you can dip into with confidence in tournaments.

Logan Forsythe (LAD) carries 3B eligibility on DK, where he’s sub $3,000. He’s the best point per dollar target at 2B/3B on that site but we prefer to use him at 2B.

Shortstop

Our goal is to save salary at the shortstop position on both sites. Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is the best value at the position on DK and second best on FD. Bogaerts is certainly carrying lighter price tags around the industry, but those price tags are a reflection of how cold he’s been for over a month. Still, he gives you access to a Red Sox offense that has the highest IRT in the slate (six runs) and does it at an ugly position.

Elvis Andrus (TEX) is having a much better season than Bogaerts, but that’s also reflecting in his price tags. We prefer him over Bogaerts but it might be a challenge to fit him given the discrepancy in price tags.

Tyler Saladino (CWS) is just $2,800 on DK, where he’s a viable pivot from Bogaerts if you need more salary relief.

Marcus Semien (OAK) is facing a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats (Ty Blach – 11.8% K rate this season) and he’ll have the platoon edge in this matchup. We like his power upside vs. LHP, but the price tags are appropriate around the industry. He’s viable in tournaments on FD but on DK where he’s priced closely enough to Bogaerts you can use him in cash games.

Outfield

Mookie Betts (BOS) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position, followed by Mike Trout (LAA). Betts is the leadoff hitter for the offense that has the highest IRT in this slate and while we like the event upside he possesses, there’s no denying that he’s been cold of late (9.5% HHR over the L15). That opens up the window for a tournament fade, but the projection is telling us to play him in cash games. That’s possible on DK (depending on your SP2 choice, it’s also possible to use Trout alongside Betts on that site), but it’s tougher on FD where Kluber is likely your priority.

Outside of the top plays, our focus is to take advantage of cheaper than usual price tags in the OF. Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. (BOS) get that conversation started thanks to cheaper than usual price tags around the industry. Benintendi has been ice cold in the second half, which is the reason why the price tags have dipped. Bradley’s HHR is sitting at 30.6% over the L15, so if playing that angle we’d lean towards JBJ though you’ll have to swallow a lower lineup spot (Benintendi was going to hit second last night and JBJ fifth). We really love this matchup for the Red Sox as they take on Miguel Gonzalez and a White Sox bullpen that’s probably the worst pen in the league now. Kole Calhoun (LAA) is free on DK ($2,700) and he’ll have the platoon edge. Delino DeShields (TEX) will likely hit leadoff once again as the Rangers will face another southpaw and he’s cheap on both sites ($2,300 on FD stands out). Max Kepler (MIN) is a LHB with power that you can use to pick on A.J. Griffin. Kepler is affordable as well. Trey Mancini (BAL) and Starling Marte (PIT) are just $3,000 on FD and Mancini will have the platoon edge.

Justin Upton (DET) is pricey around the industry, but we could care less about the price tag in tournaments. Upton’s HHR is sitting at a gaudy 45% over the L15 and he’s facing Chris Tillman.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are an outlier with our stack rankings. Their deep lineup faces Miguel Gonzalez, a pitcher we’ve always picked on due to the power he allows, and now he’s having the worst peripheral season of his career thanks to career worsts in both K and BB rates.

Tier Two

2) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are an excellent high end pivot of the chalkier Red Sox. Their team total is high at 5.2 but not among the top three on the slate, which should help keep ownership in line. Opposing pitcher Sean Newcomb has a nice K rate, but his wildness and an above league average Hard-Soft% will result in some combustible outings, which we’ve seen recently.

Tier Three

3) Texas Rangers

4) Baltimore Orioles

5) Houston Astros

The Rangers are a nice contrarian stack. Receiving a negative park shift and with poor team numbers against LHP, ownership will be held down. Mejia is a high BB and high HR guy so there’s still plenty of upside for the Rangers offense despite the preceding information.

Additional Tournament Stacks

-Seattle Mariners: In a good pitching environment, the Mariners don’t really stick out. However, opposing pitcher Trevor Cahill is coming off back to back disaster starts. He posted xFIPs of 5.88 and 7.34 after not recording a single start with a 5-plus xFIP previously. The biggest concerns lay with the plate discipline data that shows he was not generating chases or swings and misses. His SwStr rates combined the last two starts are higher than just one other individual start this season.

-Minnesota Twins: AJ Griffin’s first start back from the DL, and when he’s off his game – it’s bombs away. Dongs win tournaments.