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August 30 MLB DFS: Another Day in the BullDozier
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Welcome to August 30 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 30 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

August 30 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Dallas Keuchel (HOU) heads out SP rankings on Wednesday’s slate. Keuchel, despite technically having a home game, gets a positive park shift in his favor pitching in Tampa Bay and will face a Texas team that strikes out 24.4% of the time against LHP and is 21st in wRC+ in that split. Keuchel may not have the high K rates of most SP1s, but he’s getting crazy high GB rates week in and week out and is coming off a start in which his Hard-Soft% was -23.8%. He’s close enough to the pack that we’ll eschew his hefty price tag on DK, but on FD he’s the best value and easy to fit a strong offense around him.

Jose Berrios (MIN), Jose Quintana (CHC), and Robbie Ray (ARI) all rate similarly behind Keuchel. Berrios has the slightly highest projection of the trio while carrying the lowest price tag as well, making him an excellent cash game choice on DK. He’s the largest favorite on the slate at -210 and faces a terrible White Sox team against RHP receiving a negative park shift. Berrios has 16Ks over his last two starts, and his K upside makes up for mediocre home run and walk rates. Quintana is the safest of the group from a run prevention standpoint, but Ray has the highest K projection of the group, making him a prime tournament target.

An underpriced Jason Vargas (KC) makes for a nice SP2 complement to whichever SP1 you choose to anchor your team with. Vargas has certainly regressed following a hot start, showing some volatility in his recent game logs. The matchup and favorable home park make up for Vargas’ skills slip. The Rays are much worse against LHP, dropping down to 22nd in wRC+ against LHP while holding a 26.2 K% that is second most in MLB.

Vargas doesn’t have a ton of competition as an SP2, but Travis Wood (SD) is very cheap ($6k) given a pitcher’s park (home in Petco) and low IRTA (4, -126) against a Giants team that is 27th in wRC+ against LHP and has been without Buster Posey (thumb injury).

On FD there’s not much reason to dip outside the top 4 Sps in GPPs, but if you’re going to go cheap, just use Vargas.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) is the top catching option on this slate, but we’re monitoring his status as he’s missed two straight games. If he is in the lineup, he’s much too cheap for his matchup with soft-tossing lefty, Travis Wood. Any move in park is a park upgrade for Posey, and he’s been great against LHP, posting a .379 wOBA and .190 ISO since 2015.

After Posey, we’re looking to even cheaper options in Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) and Chris Gimenez (MIN). d’Arnaud is the bare minimum on FanDuel again, and is just $3,000 on DraftKings and hit fifth last night in a huge park upgrade to Great American Ball Park. He hasn’t matched his baselines yet this season, but he comes with serviceable power (.162 ISO) and a matchup with homer prone, Homer Bailey. Gimenez will draw the platoon edge on Derek Holland, and while he’s the worst skills wise in this group, the contextual factors play out better than Posey. In a limited sample size (150 PA) he’s posted a .228 ISO against LHP since 2015, and will draw the platoon edge on Derek Holland.

The aforementioned trio is the focus for cash games, but Salvador Perez (KC), Chris Iannetta (ARI), and Mitch Garver (MIN) all have some secondary appeal as well.

First Base

Wil Myers (SD) and Hanley Ramirez (BOS) are some of the cheap, per dollar plays available to us on the slate. Myers will get the platoon edge on Ty Blach, a contact oriented left-hander that has struggled with RHB, allowing a .174 ISO since 2015. Myers is a cheap option, that will particularly come in handy if paying for multiple starting pitchers on DraftKings, but he’s not the highest upside option in the bunch. HanRam will get the platoon edge in a better overall environment in the Rogers Centre against J.A.Happ. Happ has been better against RHB than Blach, but we’re also trying to utilize Hanley’s’ skills against LHP (.252 ISO since 2015). At $2,900 on FanDuel, he’s an excellent value.

Of course, if taking a cheaper second starter pitcher on DK, or utilizing punts on FanDuel, you can tap into either Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) or Joey Votto (CIN). Goldschmidt’s matchup with Hyun-Jin Ryu is less enticing overall, but he’s gaining the platoon edge in his excellent home park for offense. Votto on the other hand will have the upper hand in an easier matchup with Rafael Montero, in his home park. Montero has been decent this season, but struggles mightily with command. He hasn’t allowed a home run in each of his last two starts, but prior had allowed eight home runs in four starts. On DraftKings, Mitch Garver (MIN) comes back into play with dual positional eligibility with a matchup with Derek Holland (.378 wOBA, .231 ISO allowed to RHB since 2015). Both Albert Pujols (LAA) and Kendrys Morales (TOR) fit the mold of cheap secondary options at the position, but neither has a matchup to die for. Pujols will get the contact oriented Kendall Graveman, while Morales has a better overall context, but a lesser matchup with Rick Porcello.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) again is the darling at second base. The matchup with Derek Holland pits the excellent platoon splits of Dozier against the horrible splits of Holland. The price tag will force you to pay, but with potential options to save elsewhere, we’re finding a way to fit him in. On FanDuel, again you could look to use Eduardo Nunez (BOS) as a way of salary cap relief. Nunez brings an $1,100 discount over Dozier, but won’t have quite the same matchup with the platoon edge over J.A. Happ. Nevertheless, Nunez is event oriented and the Red Sox are the road team, making him a valuable road leadoff hitter.

On FanDuel, Dozier and Nunez are flanked by Scooter Gennett (CIN) and Jose Altuve (HOU) two higher priced options with good matchups overall. Gennett will draw Montero in his home park, while Altuve draws the overperforming Andrew Cashner.

On DrafKings, you can look to Chris Taylor (LAD) and Josh Harrison (PIT) as potential cheap options. Neither will draw particularly strong matchups, as Taylor draws Robbie Ray and Harrison gets Jose Quintana, but both will hit with positive lineup spots on the road, and will hold the platoon advantage. Another Dodger, Logan Forsythe (LAD) will get the platoon edge and has been solid against LHP, posting a .231 ISO and .383 wOBA since 2015 against southpaws.

Third Base

Justin Turner (LAD) is one of the top per dollar plays on both sites on Wednesday, as he’ll hold the platoon edge on Robbie Ray. The park upgrade for Turner is notable, but Ray too has allowed a.168 ISO to RHB since 2015. On DraftKings, Eduardo Escobar (MIN) holds 3B eligibility and will get the platoon edge on Derek Holland. At $3,800, he’ll hold viability as the shortstop or the 3B option in cash games.

Eduardo Nunez (BOS) holds 3B eligibility on DraftKings, but so too do Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Evan Longoria (TB) two potential options on either site. Donaldson holds the raw projection edge as the top player at the position, but Rick Porcello isn’t the easiest matchup. Nevertheless, Porcello has struggled with the long ball, allowing 1.65 HR/9 this season. Longo comes with worse contextual matchup, but will draw a cheaper price tag and a similar lineup spot. The matchup with Jason Vargas also provides him the platoon advantage, a split he’s taken to the tune of .196 ISO since 2015.

After the four aforementioned options, a slew of multi-positional eligible guys come into play. Sean Rodriguez (PIT) is cheap and will get the platoon edge, Jose Reyes (NYM) has been leading off, and Logan Forsythe (LAD) has great platoon splits as well. All three come at slightly cheaper costs, but can be utilized at other positions as well.

Shortstop

Eduardo Escobar (MIN) is again the top dog at the position as he holds eligibility on both sites, and is particularly valuable at $2,700 on FanDuel. The matchup with Derek Holland is a gold mine for RHB, but Escobar too has been valuable against LHP, posting a .167 ISO against them since 2015. At a shallow position, he’s an excellent option.

Jose Reyes (NYM) can take of dual position eligibility again as well, but will need to ensure that he finds himself in the leadoff spot against Homer Bailey. Reyes is $4,000 on DraftKings, not much of a savings overall but at $2,500 on FanDuel he provides great value. Zack Cozart (CIN) finds himself around this tier, but the matchup with Rafael Montero isn’t overly enticing for a right-handed batter. Cozart’s bread and butter has been against southpaws, yet at $3,200 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings he’s enough of the middle of the pack to warrant his services. Marcus Semien (OAK) brings one of the top SS upsides to the table against Parker Bridwell. Bridwell has been very contact oriented and has overperformed (4.83 xFIP vs. 2.89 ERA). His inability to put balls on the ground will also aid Semien who comes with a good lineup spot and one of the better overall power bats at the position.

Outfield

Byron Buxton (MIN) has been on an absolute tear since August started. Despite elevated price tags on both sites, he’s a primary target on FD and secondary target on DK where his high event upside meets a plus matchup against LHP Derek Holland and the White Sox bullpen. Buxton will cost you a pretty penny though, forcing our hand to some cheaper options in Chris Young (BOS) or Andrew McCutchen (PIT). Both will get the platoon edge on their respective pitchers, but Young comes at a much cheaper cost at $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. He’s posted a .379 wOBA and .208 ISO against LHP since 2015. Cutch holds a similar edge in the platoon department, but overall is dealing with worse context in Wrigley Field and a better pitcher in Jose Quintana. Otherwise, his $3,400 tag on DK and $2,900 on FanDuel is firmly in play. Billy Hamilton (CIN) remains very cheap on both sites and will face a starting pitcher who struggles to command the zone, a blessing for the Reds. Mike Trout (LAA) again floats to the top ranks against mediocre Athletics starters, but he was out of the lineup with neck stiffness in each of the last two games. Starling Marte (PIT) joins McCutchen as a cheap alternative that will get the platoon edge against Jose Quintana. He doesn’t possess the same upside, but is a viable candidate to improve at the position. Kike Hernandez (LAD), AJ Pollock (ARI), and Mookie Betts (BOS) all rate well in our model behind the first four or five options. Hernandez has always been a brute against LHP, and whether or not the situation needs to be handled by just one arm.

Hunter Pence (SF) is very cheap on both sites at $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. Pence has aged, and deals with a less than enticing park but has posted a .190 ISO against LHP since 2015. J.D. Martinez (ARI), Kyle Schwarber (CHC), and some other featured bats face a the platoon edge in their matchups. . Schwarber will get the platoon edge on Ivan Nova, while Pence draws the easier matchup overall with Travis Wood. Neither is an exceptional cash game play, but is cheap enough to consider for tournaments. Jose Bautista (TOR) is still stupid cheap on DK and will draw an exploitable matchup with Rick Porcello who has allowed a .160 ISO to RHB since 2015.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Cincinnati Reds

A home matchup against Rafael Montero (5.64 ERA, 4.62 xFIP) and a below average Mets bullpen (10th highest xFIP)  earns the Reds top stack consideration on a reduced slate.

Tier Two

2) Minnesota Twins

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

The Twins may be the most popular stack on the slate given a slate high 5.6 IRT against Derek Holland. Their plethora of RHBs hold underrated power upside, and Byron Buxton has SB/HR upside combination while on an absolute tear.

The Diamondbacks are our favorite contrarian stack on the slate, or at least they should carry the most leverage among the top two tier stacks. While Ryu is a solid pitcher, the Diamondbacks are set up extremely well against LHP with high event players Pollock, Goldschmidt, and Martinez and Iannetta hitting second covering a cheap player at a scarce position.

Tier Four

4) Los Angeles Dodgers

While Ray is a good DFS commodity because of his high K rate, his hitter friendly home park and routinely high Hard% make him an underrated option to pick on, especially for plus offenses receiving large positive park shifts like the Dodgers.

Tier Five

5) Chicago Cubs

6) Boston Red Sox

7) Houston Astros

 

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