August 30 MLB DFS Picks: Tiger Town
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his August 30 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft – where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
Full slates are good for the soul, but less so when Coors Field is an option. The Dodgers will look to take advantage of a massive park shift in their favor, but unfortunately to do so they’ll have to get through left-hander Tyler Anderson. Not only has Anderson been solid in his time in the bigs (3.41 xFIP) but the Dodgers have also been horrible against left-handed pitching, posting the third worst wRC+ in the league against southpaws. Luckily though, the horrible marriage of Anderson and the Dodgers inability to produce against southpaws has presented reasonable price tags and solid values for many of the Dodger hitters. Justin Turner ($8,700) will hold the platoon advantage and slide comfortably in the third spot in the order and left-handed specialist Kike Hernandez ($7,800) should get a start, preferably at the top of the order. While grabbing Hernandez and Turner will be priorities for cash games, other Dodgers such as Howie Kendrick ($7,600) or Rob Segedin ($6,000) will also hold the platoon edge at even more reasonable price tags.
Aside from the Dodgers, both the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers have enticing, stack-worthy matchups. The Cardinals get the chance to crack Wily Peralta, but this time doing so in Miller Park. The notable positive park shift is just one pro on a long list that includes Peralta’s 4.65 xFIP, 34.5% hard hit rate and 1.52 HR/9. The Cards will be headed by left-handers Matt Carpenter ($9,600) and Brandon Moss ($8,800) but you can complement them with any number of Cardinal options at reasonable prices.
The Tigers get a matchup with right-hander Anthony Ranuado and once again are holding the night’s highest implied run total at six runs. Ranuado presents a lot of opportunity for the opposition given his propensity to induce contact (nearly 35% of which is hard in nature) and his inability to keep the ball in the park (2.75 HR/9). In just three starts he’s managed a 6.71 xFIP and he’ll be facing a team that has built the league’s seventh best wRC+ against right-handed starters. Miguel Cabrera ($10,400) is finally priced accurately given his skill set but the rest of the Tigers starters carry reasonable price tags. Furthermore, with outfield Cameron Maybin leaving the game last night value might be available at the top of the order with left-hander Tyler Collins ($5,200).
These three teams hold the best set of circumstances for tonight, but don’t sleep on the high priced nature of the Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians or Toronto Blue Jays. All three have exploitable matchups, just simply less valuable prices.
On the Bump..
Target the Phillies! The Washington Nationals will look to expose of their division rival once more with Mad Max Scherzer ($26,400) taking the mound as a huge road favorite (-217). Max possesses the best strikeout projection on the slate and gets a dream matchup with the third worst wRC+ int he league against right-handers and an opposing implied run total of just 3.2 runs. Given the value available in Coors Field and some of the other great run scoring environments it won’t be a complete stretch to fit Max as your number one starter, but you’ll still need to find a way to be creative at the second starting pitching spot.
One way to do that is to inherit some risk with cheap starting pitching options like Adam Wainwright ($13,800) or Josh Tomlin ($10,200). Neither Wainwright or Tomlin will show as elite run prevention options on this slate but both take the mound as huge favorites against strikeout prone teams. Wainwright draws a matchup with the Brewers, a team that has produced the fifth worst wRC+ in the league against right-handers while striking out the most often. While Wainwright’s production in terms of strikeouts and in run prevention have taken a hit this season, taking a chance on his upside against a weak, primarily right-handed lineup presents opportunities to be more flexible offensively.
Tomlin draws a matchup with the eleventh highest strikeout rate against right-handers, the Minnesota Twins. While Tomlin hasn’t been the ideal starting pitching candidate this season (4.17 xFIP, 2.10 HR/9) his reverse splits (Minnesota features a left-handed heavy lineup) and his price make him an enticing play. The Indians are a huge favorite (-206) at home and the opposing implied run total for the Twins falls below four runs. Rostering any pitcher near the bottom of the barrel in terms of pricing is risky, but you can reap great rewards with a solid outing from Tomlin.
While it’ll be difficult to pair some of the other top arms with Scherzer there isn’t a shortage of other high-end options. Johnny Cueto ($21,600) and Drew Pomeranz ($22,500) both draw matchups with weak opposing offenses. Cueto will face the Arizona Diamondbacks on a huge negative park shift, inheriting their bottom five wRC+ in the league against right-handed starters. The Diamondbacks have an implied run total of just 2.8 runs, making Cueto a great option for cash games and a solid alternative to Scherzer if you’d prefer to spend some extra on offense given the discount.
Pomeranz has a bit more risky matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays, but one that comes with much more upside given his ability to produce the strikeout and the Rays inability to put the ball in play against southpaws. The Rays have the highest strikeout percentage in the league against left-handers (25.6%) and Pomeranz has been able to bounce back this season largely on the back of his 27% strikeout rate. The Rays are getting a positive park shift which will do Pomeranz no favors, but the Red Sox remain notable favorites (-170) and the Rays hold an implied run total under four runs. He’s not as safe as Scherzer, but he offers a similar upside for a discounted price making him worth a shot in tournaments.