Welcome to August 5 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 5 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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August 5 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:55 Starting Pitcher
10:37 First Base
14:22 Second Base
17:02 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
August 5 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
It’s another night of picking on the watered down White Sox lineup at the starting pitcher position as Drew Pomeranz (BOS) joins Danny Salazar (CLE) and Gerrit Cole (PIT) in our top tier of starting pitcher options. Pomeranz and Cole come with the lower implied run totals against (3.7 and 3.5 respectively) as they face two of the weaker offenses in the league. While the White Sox have ranked inside the Top 10 in wRC+ against LHP most of the season, their talent has been severely depleted. The Padres rank 27th in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K Rate (25.3 percent). While Cole and Pomeranz come with a higher likelihood of run prevention, Salazar comes with the highest projected strikeout number on the slate (6.9). Salazar has returned from the minors throwing his four seam fastball more instead of his sinker and the results have been fantastic. The Yankees provide a boom-or-bust matchup for Salazar who is still vulnerable to power pitching up in the zone. With Cole priced well above Salazar and Pomeranz, your SP anchor likely comes from Pomeranz or Salazar. On DraftKings, it’s possible to pair these two options and still have enough salary to build through plenty of Coors Field exposure.
On FanDuel, if you want to load up on Coors Field bats Jon Gray (COL) serves as a source of salary relief ($6,700) and projects as our top value. Of course Gray has a horrible pitching environment but it’s one he’s accustomed to and the Phillies’ offense ranks 24th in wRC+ against RHP. The Phillies have an unusually low implied total for Coors Field (five). Our lean is to build away from Gray in cash games, but he’s a viable alternative on both sites and a strong GPP target.
The other primary mid-tier GPP target we like on this slate is Luis Castillo (CIN). His price tag has risen alongside his early season performance but he continues to generate lots of swinging strikes and strikeouts. The Cardinals are getting a big park upgrade for their power but Castillo will hold the platoon edge against most of the lineup and has our third highest projected strikeout total after Salazar and Gray. Secondary GPP targets on this slate include: Alex Cobb (TB), Charlie Morton (HOU), Mike Foltynewicz (ATL), and perhaps Tyler Skaggs (LAA) who gets a great matchup and pitching environment but wasn’t sharp in his rehab outings.
In hopes of once again saving at the catcher position, it’s Robinson Chirinos (TEX) who remains at the top of our value rankings. Chirinos does not come with a good lineup spot (has been hitting 9th) but the price tag provides plenty of salary relief and he comes with power upside and a good macro environment. Kyle Gibson can keep the ball on the ground, but he allows a lot of hard contact and struggles to put hitters away (14.4% K%). Particularly on FanDuel at $2,200, Chirinos is an exceptional price play.
On DraftKings, Salvador Perez (KC) is just $3,100. We’ve talked previously about the dip in groundball rate and the struggle to keep the ball in the park for Felix Hernandez, and Perez has shown a power surge so far this season. His home park is not great for offense, but he’ll come with a better lineup spot and is still provides enough salary relief. Both Jonathan Lucroy (COL) and Gary Sanchez (NYY) rate better than Chirinos from a per dollar perspective on FanDuel. Lucroy has joined an excellent park, but still comes with very little upside and a bad lineup spot. Sanchez holds the most upside in the bunch and runs into a matchup with Danny Salazar who can struggle with allowing power. James McCann (DET) is a better lineup spot play for just $2,400 on FanDuel and a matchup with Wade Miley.
Hanley Ramirez (BOS) and Chris Davis (BAL) are the top two per dollar plays at the first base. Ramirez and the Red Sox hold the second highest implied run total on the slate getting a matchup with gas can, James Shields. Shields is moving into hilariously bad territory, pitching to a 6.17 xFIP while allowing 2.38 HR/9. The price tag on FanDuel is perhaps a bit steep at $3,600, but on DraftKings, $4,000 is a reasonable price to pay for Ramirez. Davis comes at a slight discount on FanDuel, and is the same price over on DraftKings. The matchup for Davis is expected to be with young right-hander Drew VerHagen, an arm that ZiPS projects for 5.37 FIP. Perhaps the biggest benefit to Davis though, is VerHagen’s inability to register the strikeout, having posted a 16% K% in AAA.
Mark Reynolds (COL) follows just after HanRam and Davis in per dollar rankings. He comes with a higher tag ($4,100 on FD, $5,000 on DK) but gets a matchup with Nick Pivetta which brings significant home run upside (Pivetta has allowed 1.77 HR/9). A 40% Hard% in the last fifteen days helps for Reynolds as well and the Rockies implied run total is now seven runs. Matt Carpenter (STL) and Miguel Cabrera (DET) are another pair of cheaper first base options. Both hitters will get the platoon edge in good parks against homer prone arms.
Coming off a multi-homer performance, Brian Dozier (MIN) is the top second base value on the slate. Not including last night, Dozier has posted a .248 ISO against LHP since 2015, and his matchup with Cole Hamels is not one to be fearful of. Hamels has seen a huge drop off in strikeout rate while allowing the most hard contact of his career and the highest xFIP by a full point. At $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel you’re getting plenty of upside at the top of the Twins order.
The two opposite ends of the spectrum present D.J. LeMahieu (COL) and Ozzie Albies (ATL). LeMahieu doesn’t represent a sexy upside pick, but he’ll get a premier lineup spot in Coors Field against Nick Pivetta. The Rockies implied run total speaks for itself, but you’ll need to pay for DJ at $5,100 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel. Despite the price tags, he rates as one of the best per dollar plays. Albies is a way to simply take a really cheap option at just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. An extremely young bat with some stolen base potential, Albies won’t come with a great lineup spot but instead extremely raw talent and the platoon edge on Dan Straily. He’ll open up the floodgates.
Tyler Saladino (CHW) rates a bit better and will come with a better lineup spot than Albies, but is probably already a worse player. Eduardo Nunez (BOS) is 2B eligible on FanDuel, the top per dollar play on the site at $3,900.
Nolan Arenado (COL) projects more than two full fantasy points ahead of all other third basemen on both sites. As such, he’s our top play at the position and a priority for both cash games and GPPs. Nick Pivetta has been able to generate the strikeout, but has allowed a ton of hard contact and plenty of home runs. Him meeting Coors Field and Arenado will not benefit his health.
Though we’d love to be able to utilize Arenado in all formats, the third base position is loaded just behind him. Eduardo Nunez (BOS) draws James Shields, Miguel Sano (MIN) will get the platoon edge, and Manny Machado (BAL) draws Drew VerHagen. One way or another, this is going to be a position that will require some sort of spend, and choosing between this group, or an option like Freddie Freeman (ATL) fits that mold. Sano is the cheapest of the group, and has the “most difficult” matchup with Cole Hamels, pushing him furthest into the “tournament” conversation, but realistically any of these options has cash game viability.
Nick Castellanos (DET) will get the platoon edge on Wade Miley and heads up a cheaper, secondary cash game tier. He’s been quietly fantastic against LHP, posting a .259 ISO since 2015.
It seems that Jedd Gyorko (STL) and Luis Valbuena (LAA) are the absurdly cheap values at the position. Gyorko gets a tough right-right matchup with Luis Castillo, but also a meaningful park upgrade and an arm that can be exploited for power. Valbuena is simply cheap, and will get the platoon edge.
Shortstop requires much less time on this Saturday slate. Trevor Story (COL) provides you access to the Rockies and Coors Field, and despite a weak lineup spot, he’s one of the cheapest ways to get access to an implied run total of seven runs. Add in the lack of depth at the position and you’ve found yourself a match. At $3,500 on FanDuel, the spend might seem a bit excessive but his $4,100 price tag on DraftKings is a bit easier to swallow.
Both Marcus Semien (OAK) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) follow Story in the positional rankings. They are priced in the same tier, but it’s Bogaerts who comes with the much better matchup against James Shields. His recent lineup spot demotion does take a toll on his value, but at just $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel, he’ll give you Red Sox exposure for cheap at a weak position. Semien will draw the platoon edge on Tyler Skaggs, and although he gets a better lineup spot, a slightly increased price and worse park makes him less enticing. Still though, he’s posted a .205 ISO against LHP since 2015.
Tim Anderson (CHW) is an ultra cheap SS option that should hit at the top of the order with the platoon edge. We like Pomeranz in this matchup, but feel the salary relief is enough to warrant consideration of Anderson. Paul DeJong (STL) is just $2,900 on FanDuel and has a ton of power upside, with plenty of swing and miss as well.
Ho-hum, Charlie Blackmon (COL) back in the top spot of the outfield rankings. The Rockies have an absurd implied run total of 7 runs, and Blackmon leads it all off. On FanDuel where you might only be able to generate one top spend, he’s a strong candidate to fill that void.
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) provides a cheaper way to get exposure to Coors Field, albeit with much less upside as well. Mookie Betts (BOS) and Andrew Benintendi (BOS) have an easier matchup overall James Shields. Hosting the second highest implied run total on the slate, the Sox offer plenty of upside for a bit cheaper than their Coors Field counterparts.
Keeping teammates together, but Mike Trout (LAA) and Kole Calhoun (LAA) stand out from a per dollar perspective against Paul Blackburn. Blackburn is the best arm we’ve mentioned thus far in the outfield, but even still has posted a 4.92 xFIP and a 10.6% K%. In specific values, you can get Jose Bautista (TOR) for $3,000 on DraftKings. The matchup with Charlie Morton doesn’t instill a lot of confidence, but at just $3,000 for a leadoff hitter, you could do worse. Derek Fisher (HOU) is still sub-$3,000 on FanDuel, and youngster Jesse Winker (CIN) is just $2,500 as well. Winker plays in a fantastic ball park for offense and will get the wide platoon splits of Lance Lynn.
1) Colorado Rockies
The Rockies very clearly outpace the rest of the offenses on this slate. Nick Pivetta is a similar starter to Vincent Velasquez but comes with less pedigree. He relies on fly balls, walks too many batters, but can certainly miss bats. Coors Field deflates strikeouts and inflates the impact of balls in the air making this a dangerous matchup. Individual players on the Rockies (Blackmon and Arenado specifically) will carry heavy ownership but the complementary parts will likely check in at lower ownership levels like they did last night. The Phillies bullpen projects as the second weakest in the league behind the White Sox.
2)Boston Red Sox
The only thing that can outpace James Shields in a small ballpark is Coors Field. The Red Sox are once again in a fantastic spot against the weakest starter on the slate backed up by the weakest bullpen. They’ll assuredly carry ownership.
3) Baltimore Orioles
4) Texas Rangers
5) Philadelphia Phillies
6) Houston Astros
7) St. Louis Cardinals
8) Detroit Tigers
9) Miami Marlins
10) Cincinnati Reds
The third tier is where you’ll find opportunities to get contrarian. With the top two stacks very clearly ahead of this group (reinforced by the implied totals), we expect lower than usual ownership on this third tier. The Tigers-Orioles game is one of the first places to target. The Orioles get one of the weakest starters on the slate (Drew VerHagen who had a 4.68 xFIP in AAA) backed up by one of the weakest bullpens on the slate. They’re also affordable, especially on FanDuel. The Tigers lineup has lost a lot of depth but they still have a group of hitters that can hit LHP very well and the big park shift for power suits their skills. The Astros continue to hit no matter who they’re missing (last night Correa-Springer-Altuve). Their individual pieces all seem to be outperforming baseline expectations but they draw another strong matchup for upside against Marco Estrada‘s struggles with home runs and walks. The Rangers are one of our favorites in this group given Kyle Gibson‘s historical struggles against LHBs, the Twins bad bullpen, and their failure last night against a worse pitcher fresh in the minds of DFSers.