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August 5 MLB DFS: Warning – Hot Cargo On Board

August 5 MLB DFS: Warning – Hot Cargo On Board
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – August 5 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

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Weather: Games in ATL and especially in CIN deserve to be watched for thunderstorms…

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.


Top Play:

Brian McCann (NYY) – McCann has an elite home matchup (Yankee Stadium is second most favorable park for LHBs) at home against Steven Wright. In 94 big league innings, Wright has a 4.21 ERA and 1.24 HR/9 allowed. Projections systems actually expect a much worse ERA moving forward. Wright struggles with control and limiting the long ball, both problems exacerbated by a below league average K rate. Meanwhile, McCann continues to take a higher upside approach at the plate, which has translated to a nice bounce back season in both real life and Fantasy. He’s swinging more aggressively (SwStr rate up) but that’s actually a good thing when combined with increased patience (BB rate up). When he does make contact, it’s much higher quality than last season, and he’s pulling the ball at a career high rate, which is ideal in Yankee Stadium. McCann’s upside is further bolstered by a Red Sox bullpen that has the fourth highest xFIP and most HR/9.

Value Plays:

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – Grandal and the whole Dodgers offense disappointed yesterday, but he’s still someone to target today. He gets a small but positive park shift playing in Philadelphia and faces another subpar RHP in Aaron Harang, who has allowed a .338 wOBA and 1.11 HR/9 to LHBs since 2013. While Grandal is a switch hitter, he’s far superior from the left side, where he’s posted a .362 wOBA and .196 ISO for his career. The Dodgers will have a run total settle in somewhere between 4 and 4.5 this evening. I’d defer to McCann where the two are closely priced (FanDuel), but on sites where the gap in pricing is a bit wider (DraftKings), Grandal emerges as a viable cash game option. UPDATE: Dodgers lineup has been released and it does not include Grandal.

Yadier Molina (STL) – Molina is best used on sites like FanDuel where he’s minimum priced and meaningfully cheaper than the above two names. While his power days are behind him, Molina still makes a lot of contact and a lot of that contact is in the form of line drives. He should have some RBI opportunities for a Cardinals offense that I believe is getting short changed by Vegas today (implied run total right around 4). The Cardinals get a significant park shift playing in the most hitter friendly venue in play on the evening slate. They’ll face David Holmberg, who both ZiPS and Steamer project to post an ERA right around 5.00 with a HR/9 mark of 1.35. In his very short career, Holmberg has started seven games and appeared in nine total leading to 39.2 innings in which he’s walked as many as he has struck out and allowed 2.04 HR/9. Holmberg hasn’t discriminated in that time, being owned by both handedness of hitters, but we’ll consider it a plus that Molina holds the platoon edge.

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