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August 6 MLB DFS: Good Benintentions
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Welcome to August 6 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 6 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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August 6 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
07:05 Catcher
09:26 First Base
12:42 Second Base
15:56 Third Base
18:30 Shortstop
21:10 Outfield
26:07 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

August 6 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Chris Archer (TB) headlines the SP position on a Sunday slate that removes Coors Field on both main slates and leaves far more room to spend on pitching. Archer gets a favorable matchup with a Brewers’ offense that ranks 19th in wRC+ against RHP and gets a big park downgrade for their primary weapon: power. Archer is appropriately priced on both sites but makes for a very strong cash game target. He carries the lowest implied total against (3.5) on the slate and comes with the highest strikeout projection (eight).

There are a few alternatives to Archer as the slate has some depth on the pitching side. The primary two values behind Archer are in different projection and price point tiers. Carlos Carrasco (CLE) is the second highest projected starter on the slate. The Yankees bats have been cold of late and the park downgrade for their power helps play into Carrasco’s hands. While the Yankees rank second in wRC+ against RHP on the season, they rank 24th in wRC+ over the last 30 days with a composite .238/.306/.399 line. The next alternative is Jameson Taillon (PIT) who is coming off consecutive disaster starts. Taillon’s velocity and hard hit rates weren’t much different over the last two outings but he generated fewer swinging strikes and had BABIPs of .500 and .529. We’re looking at those two outings as more likely just some bad variance than anything is actually wrong with him. Vegas seems to agree enlisting him as a -180 favorite with a 3.7 implied total against. Taillon doesn’t project as high as Archer or Carrasco but is noticeably cheaper on both sites ($8,000 on DK, $7,300 on FD).  The cash game conversation looks to pretty clearly involve those three starters.

In tournaments, Jimmy Nelson (MIL) gets the strikeout prone and slumping Rays’ offense that hasn’t scored a run in the first two games of the series. Nelson’s price tag is a bit elevated above Taillon on DK and right around Carrasco on FD so he gets caught a bit in pricing limbo but has more upside than Taillon despite the more difficult matchup. Mike Fiers (HOU) and Jose Berrios (MIN) are other secondary GPP alternatives with softer price tags than Nelson.

Catcher

Victor Martinez (DET) has catcher eligibility on FD, where he’s the best point per dollar target at the position. The matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez is as good as it gets for Martinez, who will hit from the left side of the plate. Since 2015, Ubaldo has surrendered a .360 wOBA and .217 ISO to LHBs.

The position is cloudier on DK where Martinez is 1b eligible. On that side, we’re looking at Francisco Cervelli (PIT) for salary relief. Cervelli is $2,700 and will have the platoon edge for a Pirates offense that carries a hefty IRT at home (4.9) vs. southpaw Clayton Richard.

The best alternatives are pricier. We love Russell Martin‘s (TOR) lineup spot (hits second) and environment, but the matchup sucks and he’s now $4,200 on DK. We have more interest in J.T. Realmuto (MIA), particularly on FD where he’s sub $3,000. Realmuto’s HHR has been phenomenal of late (32% over the L15) and he has a matchup against a rookie SP. Realmuto has 12 HRs and 5 SBs this season. He has some event upside at a barren position. He’s likely your best cash game alternative on DK as well at $3,700.

Play Willson Contreras (CHC) in tournaments. His HHR over the L15 is sitting at 32.4%, and that’s not taking into account the HR he hit yesterday. We’re hoping that the ownership stays tame given the big price tags ($5,000 on DK). It’s possible to include him in your cash game plans on FD where he’s $3,500 but that still feels like paying up on that site.

First Base

Chris Davis (BAL) projects as a cash game lock on both sites. Davis has the second highest projection at first base, and he’s carrying very light price tags ($3,600 on DK and $3,300 on FD). Anibal Sanchez gives up tons of hard contact (18% hard minus soft hit rate) and that contact tends to be aerial as well (GB rates for him have been hovering around 38% over the L3 seasons).

Davis’ boom or bust production sets up well for a potential fade in tournaments as his ownership will likely be through the roof. We have strong alternatives in that format. Freddie Freeman (ATL) gets that conversation started with the platoon edge in SunTrust Park, though his HHR has been trending downwards lately (13% over the L15 – he did homer last night). The price tag is strong on FD ($3,700). Anthony Rizzo (CHC) is another big spend with the platoon edge against rookie Erick Fedde. Rizzo’s HHR is up to 34.4% over the L15. Joey Votto (CIN) has the platoon edge in Cincinnati. Rizzo and Votto are our leans when thinking of cash game alternatives but the challenge is they’re pricey. Matt Carpenter (STL), Hanley Ramirez (BOS), Miguel Cabrera (DET) and Eric Thames (TB) remain cheap on DK where they carry sub $4,000 price tags. Of that group, Carpenter would ideally be the cash game alternative of this group given that he’s a road leadoff hitter in Cincinnati vs. Homer Bailey, but he’s been ice cold of late (10% HHR over the L15). We prefer him in tournaments as well.

Second Base

Jonathan Schoop (BAL) represents the top projected scorer at second base, and our projections aren’t even taking into account the hard contact he’s generated of late (32% HHR over the L15). Schoop’s $3,800 price tag on FD looks good on the periphery but he could end up being your most expensive hitter if using Archer. The $4,600 price tag is an easier fit on DK.

Brian Dozier (MIN) is next up for us in terms of projection at second base, and his price tag is similar to Schoop’s. Nick Martinez has surrendered a .364 wOBA and .209 ISO to RHBs since 2015, so this matchup is perfect for Dozier. He’s viable across all formats.

On FD, there’s a good chance that you won’t be able to reach for Schoop or Dozier but the alternatives are light. Yoan Moncada (CWS) would be our choice for pure salary relief. Moncada has event upside, which we’ll gladly take for $2,600 against Doug Fister. At AAA this season, he hit 12 HRs and stole 17 bases in 361 PAs.

This is a perfect matchup for SB upside for Dee Gordon (MIA) as Tyler Flowers has been a poor catcher over his career in terms of controlling the running game (-14 rSB over the L3 seasons), but the price tags are full around the industry. Gordon is a fine target in tournaments.

Third Base

Manny Machado (BAL) carries the top projection at third base. Machado’s price tags are more appropriate now around the industry, but we’re willing to pay them in this matchup. Here are Anibal Sanchez‘s HR/9 marks over the L3 seasons: 1.66, 1.76 and 1.90. Machado gets this matchup at home as well, and Camden Yards is regarded as a very strong hitting environment.

Miguel Sano (MIN) and Freddie Freeman (ATL) are strong alternatives. We prefer Sano a bit more strongly as an alternative given the awesome matchup vs. Nick Martinez. Sano was out of the lineup last night (hit by a pitch on Friday), but he’s expected to come back right away. We like Freeman in tournaments despite the recent struggles. Since 2016, Freeman has generated a .411 wOBA and .298 ISO vs. RHP.

Kris Bryant (CHC) and Josh Donaldson (TOR) are viable alternatives to the group above in tournaments. $4,400 for Bryant is too cheap on DK, which puts him in the cash game conversation. Jedd Gyorko (STL) is a cheap play we’re fond of in tournaments. His HHR has been trending in the wrong direction of late but his context is very strong (Homer Bailey in Cincinnati).

Shortstop

Saving salary is our priority at the shortstop position. On FD, you’ll feel good about who you’re using for cheap as Paul DeJong (STL) has a $2,800 price tag on that site. As a group the Cardinals haven’t been swinging it well (DeJong included), but at a scarce position we’re willing to overlook that. Especially with someone like DeJong, who’s shown power upside (14 HRs are backed up by a 43% FB rate and a 37% HHR according to fangraphs). Tim Beckham (BAL) has been red hot since his trade to Baltimore (35% HHR over the L15), and he’s also sub $3,000 on that site. He’s viable in all formats.

On DK, we’re intrigued once again by Ozzie Albies (ATL). This isn’t a complicated play – Albies is dirt cheap ($2,300) and carries some speed upside (21, 30, 29 SBs over the L3 seasons in the minors). If Tyler Saladino (CWS) hits second, he’d be interesting on DK as well given the big park shift and plus matchup (Doug Fister) at a decent price tag.

Outfield

It’s not a familiar face we have at the top of our OF rankings, but with the Coors Field game and Mike Trout not a part of this slate, Andrew Benintendi (BOS) headlines the position. Benintendi will have the platoon edge against Mike Pelfrey, which is meaningful given how terrible Pelfrey is in that split. He’s surrendered a .390 wOBA and .198 ISO to the L500 LHBs he’s faced. Benintendi’s best price tag can be found on DK where he’s $4,300, but he’s also the best value at the position on FD where the price tag feels a little more appropriate ($3,700). Teammate Mookie Betts (BOS) also rates well, but he’s been ice cold of late (7.7% HHR over the L15) and Pelfrey has been better vs. RHBs. We prefer Betts in tournaments today.

Adam Jones (BAL) as the leadoff hitter for an Orioles offense that carries a hefty IRT once again (5.9 runs) qualifies as an excellent value on both sites. Jones’ HHR is up to 30% over the L15. Max Kepler (MIN) has been really cold of late but as a result he’s really cheap and the matchup against Nick Martinez is a strong one. His salary relief is more useful on FD. Jose Bautista (TOR) doesn’t have a good matchup, but he’s free on DK ($2,900). It’s possible to play another pricey OF on DK alongside Benintendi, and that’s where Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) enter the conversation. Our lean is with Stanton given the difference in projection and a stronger hitting environment, but Cutch has the platoon edge and over his L200 PAs he’s generated a massive .445 wOBA and .239 ISO. Christian Yelich (MIA) is also viable in the mid-tier if you wanted to split the difference.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (BOS) hits in the worst lineup spot possible (ninth), but the strong matchup against Pelfrey puts him in the tournament conversation. He’ll be the less chalky Red Sox given the lineup spot.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Boston Red Sox

2) Baltimore Orioles

3) Chicago Cubs

The Red Sox lead the way in the stack rankings with a 6.2 implied total that is well above the rest of the offenses on this slate. The challenge with the Red Sox is they’re lineup isn’t conducive to top of the order stacks with everyone fully priced. There are some opportunities for wrap-around stacks with Jackie Bradley Jr. moderately priced. The Orioles are our favorite stack on this slate. Anibal Sanchez struggles limiting the long ball and gets a big park downgrade for home runs. He’s also more vulnerable to RH power which the Orioles have in droves. Throw in reasonable price tags on some key players and the Orioles are our preferred stack target. The Cubs are another strong stack target with Erick Fedde looking like a well below average starter (5.57 ERA in AAA, rocked in first start). We’re awaiting a total but with the wind blowing out slightly they could get a total that challenges Boston and pushes them up the rankings. The Cubs have the highest composite team hard hit rate over the last 15 days.

Tier Two

4) Miami Marlins

5) Minnesota Twins

6) St. Louis Cardinals

7) Texas Rangers

The second tier is filled with more contrarian targets. The Marlins are the most intriguing when considering relatively modest ownership, Giancarlo Stanton swinging it well of late and a nice park upgrade for power. The Cardinals also fit this mold except their offense is really struggling of late with a composite hard hit rate below 15 percent. The only team lower on the slate is the White Sox over the last 15 days.

 

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