Welcome to August 7 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 7 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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August 7 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:49 Starting Pitcher
11:20 First Base
13:46 Second Base
16:27 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
August 7 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
We’re anticipating Max Scherzer (WAS) to return for this slate. If that’s the case, he’s a cash game lock on both sites on a shorter slate. Scherzer, who had a neck issue and left early last game, likely won’t be limited, although some potential high end scenarios are likely removed (like 115-plus pitches). Scherzer’s absurd 35.7K% on the season gives him an incredible floor/ceiling combination. Our 8.7 K projection for Scherzer is three full strikeouts higher than any other pitcher on the slate, making him an outlier in both raw total projection and projected value.
Behind Scherzer on this slate is Jake Arrieta (CHC) and Carlos Martinez (STL). Arrieta is the safer option pitching against a weak Giants lineup (dead last in wRC+ against RHP) in the best pitcher’s park all of baseball. As a result he’s a heavy -184 favorite with just a 3.4 IRTA, nearly a full run lower than any other SP outside of Scherzer. Arrieta has pitched much more consistently recently. The main issue with him is price tag. Martinez carries more risk but also the same K projection at a much lower cost, especially on DK where it’s possible to fit him as an SP2 next to Scherzer (and not Arrieta). The odds for Martinez aren’t as good as expected (4.3 IRTA, -104) as he undergoes a negative league shift. Martinez is a volatile pitcher, due to inconsistencies in both K and BB rates. The overall whiff ability is an asset at this price tag (26 K%), and the Royals are 23rd in wRC+ against RHP.
It gets pretty ugly on this slate after that. That brings our attention to Ian Kennedy (KC) and Tim Adleman (CIN). Neither have the desired skill sets we generally look for in an SP, but they strike out just enough hitters to be useful at their prices and in their respective matchups. Kennedy gets a righty heavy Cardinals team that is 27th in FanGraphs 14-day Hard% and a slightly above average matchup on the season from a wRC+ and K% standpoint against RHP. On DK though, if you’re going cheap at SP2 you might want to simply drop down to Adleman. He’s a bad pitcher – 5.42 ERA/5.70 FIP/5.06 xFIP – in an unforgiving park. However, he’s been missing more bats this season (20.8 K%) thanks to an increase in SwStr%. That’s just enough to make him intriguing against a Padres team that represents one of the best DFS matchups in all of baseball for RHP.
We’re not on Ervin Santana (MIN) at this price tag, but he may be popular against a K prone Brewers team. The K rate is only average, and the run prevention (ERA) is going to regress (has already started).
Manny Pina (MIL) as the headlining catcher points to the lack of depth at the position today. Pina and the Brewers will get a league shift moving to Target Field to take on Ervin Santana. Pina is not an exciting bat, but we’re focusing on the price tag ($2,700 on DK, $2,400 on FD). Santana has pitched above his head this year in part due to a .223 BABIP and 83% LOB%.
Matt Wieters (WSH) is an even cheaper option on DraftKings at just $2,400. He carries a bit more pedigree offensively, but still isn’t a terrorizing threat, particularly from the right side. Furthermore, his opponent, Chris O’Grady is a much worse pitcher than the aforementioned Santana (5.37 xFIP).
Austin Hedges (SD) is a bit more expensive at $3,400 on DraftKings, but he’s only $2,300 on FanDuel. The Padres are getting a huge positive park shift playing at Great American Ball Park and Hedges is one of the lone Padres who has power potential. Despite normally being lauded for his glove, Hedges has posted a .203 ISO this season. Tim Adleman isn’t quite James Shields level home run bad, but he’s close.
Votto is the expensive spend of the group, but holds the highest raw projection and gets the wide platoon splits of Jhoulys Chacin. He’s a better tournament target on FanDuel, where each dollar counts a bit more, but if you choose to spend down at SP2 on DK, you can make it work.
It’s more likely that you’ll fall into the Thames, Myers, Carpenter range for cash games though. Myers, like Votto, will get the luxury of playing in Great American Ball Park. He’s just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel and as previously mentioned, Adleman has had his struggles with the long ball (2.03 HR/9). Thames has taken a swing down since his lofty early season production, but he still has a ton of power upside and has been hitting leadoff now for the Brewers against RHP (though he hit fifth yesterday).
Carpenter is priced in between Myers and Thames and though he gets a bad offensive park, he gets the homer prone Ian Kennedy and will hit at the top of the Cardinals order. He’s dealing with a rough last fifteen days (strong negative delta in Hard%) and projects a bit less in raw projection, but is reasonably priced and has strong numbers against RHP.
Brian Dozier (MIN) and Yangervis Solarte (SD) are the top two per dollar plays at the 2B position on Monday. Dozier has seen his price finally jump up, but still gets the platoon edge on left-hander Brent Suter. Dozier has been a monster against LHP, posting a .258 ISO against southpaws since 2015.
Solarte carries less upside, but also comes with a lower price tag on both sites ($3,700 on DK, $2,600 on FanDuel). Solarte is by no means a powerful bat, but he has posted a respectable .174 ISO against RHP since 2015. The other side of that game provides a bit more upside in Scooter Gennett (CIN). Gennett will get the wide platoon splits of Jhoulys Chacin (.178 ISO allowed to LHB since 2015) and comes with a price tag that falls in the middle of Dozier and Solarte. Furthermore, he’ll give you exposure to a Reds team that holds the second highest implied run total on the slate.
Carlos Asuaje (SD) is a much cheaper option that comes with a good lineup spot, despite little upside. Jonathan Schoop (BAL) is a mad man this season and is just $4,100 on DraftKings. The park is bad, but his upside is only second to Dozier’s.
There are a few different routes to go at the hot corner on Monday. If paying up, Miguel Sano (MIN) is our preferred option should he be back in the lineup after being HBP. Much like his teammate, Sano holds massive upside against LHP, having posted a .266 ISO against them since 2015. Jedd Gyorko (STL) and Luis Valbuena (LAA) are two different cheap options at the position. Gyorko has been quite powerful against RHP (.201 ISO since 2015) and will get the fly ball prone Ian Kennedy. He’s just $2,900 on DK and $2,700 on FD, a cheap enough option with upside as well. Valbuena is even cheaper, but comes with a worse park and a more difficult matchup with Dylan Bundy. It’s likely that for cash games you’ll be making a decision between Gyorko and Valbuena, but if he’s in the lineup, Jeimer Candelario (DET) is the bare minimum on FanDuel. Eduardo Escobar (MIN) holds 3B eligibility on DraftKings, but is best served for salary relief on SS.
Previously noted, Eduardo Escobar (MIN) is the top per dollar value on both sites. He’s drawn a top four lineup spot in four of his last five starts and will likely be there again against a LHP in Brent Suter. Escobar has posted a .155 ISO this season, and has been even more powerful against LHP in his last 366 plate appearances, posting a .174 ISO. At $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, he’s our preferred option in cash games.
After Escobar, there is a big drop off. Brandon Crawford (SF) is cheap and will get the platoon edge, but he’s also getting a horrible park and a matchup with Jake Arrieta. Jorge Polanco (MIN) is $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel, but will draw a horrible lineup spot. Paul DeJong (STL) is a tough spend on DraftKings at $4,500, but he’s only $3,000 on FanDuel where he’s the second most valuable per dollar play. He has a ton of swing and miss, but also possesses the most upside of any of the players at this position.
Mike Trout (LAA) is the best player in baseball, so it is no surprise that he would be one of our favorite spends on the entire slate offensively. Dylan Bundy is not an arm to fear (5.16 xFIP) as he’s seen his strikeout rate dip and he still allows a ton of balls in the air. At $5,700 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel it represents a huge spend and is only possible if skimping in other positions, but it’s a viable use of funds in both tournaments and cash games.
After Trout we’re looking to the midtier for our per dollar value. Starling Marte (PIT) gets the deteriorating arm of Jordan Zimmermann (1.73HR/9, declining GB%, 5.18xFIP) and is $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings. Billy Hamilton (CIN) and Jesse Winker (CIN) should hit 1-2 in GABP against Chacin. Hamilton has nearly doubled his seasonal Hard% in the last fifteen days and comes with the obvious stolen base upside. Winker, is the cheaper option of the two and projects (ZiPS) for a reasonable .146 ISO rest of season.
Domingo Santana (MIL), Ryan Braun (MIL), and Eric Thames (MIL) (DK only) rate near the top ten in our per dollar rankings on both sites. Ervin Santana has pitched well above his head, and while the Brewers are getting a park downgrade, it’s still a park best suited for right-handed power. In all the ways Santana has succeeded this season, he’s allowed 1.49 HR/9.
Kole Calhoun (LAA) and Gregory Polanco (PIT) are a pair of bats that will grab the platoon edge on Monday, and despite less than ideal park environments are reasonable per dollar plays (particularly at $3,100 on DraftKings). Stephen Piscotty (STL) is back in the Cardinals lineup and is just $2,500 on both sites. Bats like Jim Adduci (DET) and Albert Almora Jr. (CHC) don’t bring about much upside, but are extremely cheap and could generate decent lineup spots with the platoon advantage on Monday. Their salary relief can help you spend up in other spots.
1) Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are 13th in HRs and fourth in SBs on the season. They’ll face a subpar RHP in Jhoulys Chacin, who is undergoing a large negative park shift.
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) San Diego Padres
4) Washington Nationals
The Brewers are a good contrarian stack. On a slate where there are no outlier offenses to targets in terms of IRTs, we cover their event upside at very low ownership. As mentioned previously, we’re still expecting ERA regression for Ervin Santana, and the bullpen behind him has the second highest FIP on the season (and now no Kintzler).
The Padres are a safer value stack, facing a homer prone SP in Great American Ballpark, but expect the ownership to be higher.
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
6) Chicago Cubs
Jordan Zimmermann continues to allow hard hit aerial contact. Over his last four starts, he had GB rates of 33.3% or lower in three of them and a hard percentage of 40 or higher in three of them. The Pirates often get overlooked because of their park and against RHP when Marte and McCutchen lack the platoon edge.
7) St. Louis Cardinals