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August 7 MLB DFS: Good Morning Baltimore!
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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August 7 MLB DFS: Good Morning Baltimore!

00:49 Starting Pitchers
09:03 Catchers
10:24 First Base
12:10 Second Base
14:35 Shortstops
16:54 Third Base
18:25 Outfield
20:41 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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August 7 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Yu Darvish (TEX)

2) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

3) Gerrit Cole (PIT)

4) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

Tier Two

5) Jacob deGrom (NYM)

6) Adam Wainwright (STL)

Tier Three

7) Marcus Stroman (TOR)

8) Kyle Gibson (MIN)

9) Dylan Bundy (BAL)

10) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)

It’s a fun day at the starting pitcher position. There’s not one obvious direction to head in, but it’s not for a lack of situations we can take advantage of. Starting up top, Yu Darvish (TEX) is a great tournament play on DraftKings (should be low owned at that price tag) and firmly in the cash conversation on FanDuel. Darvish isn’t risk free from a run prevention standpoint (high upside offense in a pitcher’s park), but it’s still a pretty low implied run total against (3.6). More importantly, his 34.6 K percentage on the season meets a strikeout prone Astros offense.

Most of the value comes in our three through sixth ranked starting pitchers, particularly with Gerrit Cole (PIT) (great matchup against the Reds, especially with Jay Bruce gone; lowest implied run total against and second largest favorite), Carlos Carrasco (CLE) (the riskiest of the bunch given pitching in Yankee Stadium and personal volatility shown; Yankees are 23rd in wRC+ against RHP), and Adam Wainwright (STL) (extremely safe and affordable; largest favorite on the slate brings him in play on FanDuel). However, Jacob deGrom (NYM) could see a boost if the implied run total against him drops, something we could definitely see happening.

Those three pitchers seemingly give the best combination of cost and upside. However, the tier three options shouldn’t be automatically dismissed. Marcus Stroman (TOR) has been on fire, allowing a 3.06 xFIP or lower in six straight starts, posting a K rate of at least 20 percent in each of those outings. With a positive park shift and as a heavy favorite, he could definitely be used on FanDuel if you want to shift more of your budget to the hitting side of things. While our confidence is lower on Kyle Gibson (MIN) (we’d rather pay $1,500 more for Stroman on FD with the win weighted heavier), he’s quietly been very solid since returning from the DL. He’s posted an xFIP of 3.88 or lower in eight of nine starts and has missed just enough bats to have some semblance of upside. The matchup helps boost the ceiling as the Rays strike out 24.1 percent of the time against RHP. Last but certainly not least is Dylan Bundy (BAL) who has recorded 21 or more DK points in three straight outings, posting a 20:2 K:BB ratio over that time. Price wise though we prefer him in tournaments (more comfortable with Stroman, more savings with Gibson).

Catcher Rankings

1) Jonathan Lucroy (TEX)

2) Buster Posey (SF)

3) Matt Wieters (BAL)

4) Victor Martinez (DET) (where eligible)

5) Brian McCann (NYY)

The catcher position is a very difficult one to find upside as the most talented catchers on the slate (with the best lineup spots) all are in difficult matchups, which makes it tough to justify paying up at the position. If you aren’t punting the position, Jonathan Lucroy (TEX) (of the usual catchers found in our top five rankings, he’s the only one in a good park and not in a very difficult splits matchup like Posey, Martinez, Ramos, etc.) and Matt Wieters (BAL) (good park environment, low lineup spot somewhat mitigated by hitting on road, by far the best matchup of the top five options). It is completely fine to punt the position though.

First Base Rankings

1) Chris Davis (BAL)

2) Brandon Moss (STL) (if cleanup) (where eligible)

3) Matt Adams (STL) (if cleanup)

4) Carlos Santana (CLE)

5) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

While Chris Davis (BAL) still has a negative delta in our well-hit tool, it’s trending in the right direction. This is a good day to take a chance on him breaking out of his slump, although it does need to be noted he hasn’t had an extra base hit since July 16th. Despite the epic slump, Davis has an elite matchup against James Shields (allowing greater than 1.40 HR/9 for the second straight season) in US Cellular Field, and there’s not much opportunity cost at the position, which lacks the usual amount of power upside and overall depth. The best alternatives to Davis are whomever of Brandon Moss/Matt Adams (STL) hits cleanup or top five for the Cardinals, putting them in good position to take advantage of Mike Foltynewicz‘s wide splits (.392 wOBA, .270 ISO allowed for his career to LHBs).

Second Base Rankings

1) Matt Carpenter (STL)

2) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

3) Jose Altuve (HOU)

4) Neil Walker (NYM)

5) Josh Harrison (PIT) (

Especially on DraftKings, we like paying up for Matt Carpenter (STL) (.385 wOBA, .202 ISO, 15.0 BB rate against RHP since 2014) in an excellent splits matchup. However, alternatives to exist on both sites. If hitting second, teammate Greg Garcia (STL) would represent a cheap way to take advantage of Foltynewicz’s issues with LHBs. On FanDuel, you can also play the mid-tier game with Jason Kipnis (CLE) (large park shift and Tanaka has allowed 11 ERs and 3 HRs his past two starts). On DraftKings, Josh Harrison (PIT) represents a good cap relief option as he’s too cheap for a leadoff hitter, especially against this poor Cincinnati Reds pitching staff.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL) (where eligible)

2) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

3) Carlos Correa (HOU)

4) Greg Garcia (STL) (if hitting second) (where eligible)

5) Brad Miller (TB)

There’s not much value at the shortstop position so if at all possible, we’d like to pay up here with Manny Machado (BAL) (highest implied run total on the slate, great hitter against same handed pitching) and/or Francisco Lindor (CLE) (out of his well-hit slump, big park shift against a slumping Tanaka). If unable to do so, we’d lean towards punting the position, something you’re more likely to have to do on FanDuel rather than DraftKings.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Matt Carpenter (STL) (where eligible)

3) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

4) Miguel Sano (MIN) (where eligible)

5) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

Similar to shortstop, the lack of mid-tier values is driving us to pay up where possible for Manny Machado (BAL), who has posted a .377 wOBA and .219 ISO against RHP. In terms of mid-tier values, there’s not much. The most obvious cash game candidates are Adrian Beltre (TEX) (Musgrove can definitely miss bats but allowed power at AAA) and Jung Ho Kang (PIT) (simply a play against Cincinnati if Kang is given a top four lineup spot).

Outfield Rankings

1) Adam Jones (BAL)

2) Brandon Moss (STL) (if hitting cleanup)

3) Hyun Soo Kim (BAL)

4) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

5) Curtis Granderson (NYM)

6) Jose Bautista (TOR)

7) Jay Bruce (NYM)

8) Starling Marte (PIT)

9) Adam Eaton (CHW)

10) Shin-Soo Choo (TEX)

11) Mark Trumbo (BAL)

12) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

13) Ian Desmond (TEX)

14) Carlos Beltran (TEX)

15) Matt Holliday (STL)

It’s difficult to find valuable sources of cap relief at the outfield option, but four of our top five ranked out fielders have mid to mid-high pricing, making them our focus in cash games. Adam Jones and Hyun Soo Kim (BAL) will hit towards the top of the Baltimore order, a team with an implied run total nearly half a run higher than any other team on the slate. Brandon Moss (STL), who we covered at first base, possesses some of the highest power upside on the slate. We haven’t touched on the Mets much, but using Curtis Granderson (NYM) is an excellent way to get some exposure to them receiving a park upgrade and adding a DH to their lineup as they take on the woeful Anibal Sanchez (6.26 ERA/5.08 FIP/4.82 xFIP; 13.3 hard minus soft hit rate). Depending on the Rangers lineup, several secondary values could pop there (Shin-Soo Choo/Carlos Beltran/Ian Desmond/Nomar Mazara (TEX)). Any punt option that emerges is a reasonable tool to use as a third outfielder, particularly on FanDuel where it’s very difficult to find any useful sub-$3k outfielders.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Baltimore Orioles

Tier Two

2) New York Mets

3) St. Louis Cardinals

The Orioles make a lot of sense as a cash game mini-stack. They represent the most upside both from a run expectancy standpoint and from a power standpoint. Throw in their affordability and you should get exposure to multiple pieces of this offense.

Given Mike Foltynewicz‘s wide splits, we have more Cardinals as specific cash game considerations as Mets, bit in a GPP format, the Mets offense as a whole on the road probably has a touch more upside.

Additional Tournament Stacks

-Toronto Blue Jays (third highest team total, yet you can still likely get them at low ownership on a slate where there’s not much opportunity cost)

-Cleveland Indians (fifth in wRC+ against RHP; large park shift; recent issues for Tanaka; big downgrade in bullpen)

MLB Daily Analysis

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