BeepImaJeep DraftKings World Fantasy Baseball Championship Qualifier Run
Anyone who plays DFS dreams of that heater where we go on a spectacular run, maybe pull down a large prize in a GPP or qualify for a live event. As much as a dream as it is, there’s merit to the survive and advance approach in DFS where if you can just hold steady with the rake and keep your hat in the ring, eventually that heater will come and BAM – just like that you’ve achieved a huge profit. All of the grinding pays off.
Well, one DFS player who kept his hat in the ring over the past couple of weeks is BeepImaJeep. To say he went on a heater would be a gross understatement. BeepImaJeep, who already had qualified once for the DraftKings $4Million Fantasy Baseball World Championship, won four more qualifiers….in a row! Let’s take a look at 1) Just how astounding of an accomplishment this is and 2) Try and figure out just how the heck he pulled it off.
Want to hear BeepImaJeep talk about his epic run? He sits down with Tony Cincotta on RotoRadio.
How unlikely was his run?
— DHP (@DHP) May 21, 2015
I won’t lie, I did zero fact checking of DP’s Tweet, but when was the last time he ever led anybody astray on Twitter? To put those odds in perspective, what BeepImaJeep did by winning four qualifiers in a row was statistically more difficult than someone winning last years NFL Milly Maker contests with a single entry.
How much were the wins worth?
The DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship has a $4Million prize pool and 80 entrants. Simple math tells us the expected value of a seat is $50,000. Now the overall EV of a seat actually shrinks a bit with each additional seat (since you cap yourself to an extent), but more or less BeepImaJeep netted about $200,000 in EV over the course of a week. Not to mention he already had one seat and now is up to five. Outside of expected value, BeepImaJeep has an absolute floor of $50,000 (five entries at a min cash). Additionally he and a boatload of friends (each entry comes with a plus-one) get an awesome four-night stay in Las Vegas. As someone who got to attend one of their live events previously (thanks Dink!), I can tell you there’s a ton of value in the experience of the trip itself. The DK staff knows how to take care of its guests.
What are his chances of winning?
BeepImaJeep’s chances of winning the event (a $1Million grand prize) are roughly 5/80 (6.25%) assuming all players are equal and there’s no correlation between his entries. However, the way BeepImaJeep plays (full stacks teams, more on that below) means the extra entries perhaps benefit him more than any other player. The live final is a nine game slate, meaning if BeepImaJeep chooses to full stack five different teams, he can cover 27.8% of them. That’s a big advantage, especially at a final where a lot of people have a single entry and can sometimes be hesitant to full stack.
How did he do it?
Let’s take a look at BeepImaJeep’s last three winning teams over the course of his absurd run (scoreboard for the fourth is too old to load):
As you can see, each team is a full stack. Here are some observations:
-The fact that he won full stacking a Tigers team that put up two runs is absolutely remarkable. It was a short slate with a ton of really tight scores up top, which leads me to my next point.
-Stacking can be controversial but the fact is, it’s effective for a variety of reasons. For starters, there’s a high correlation between RS and RBIs, making it a good boom or bust strategy. Secondly, it’s a good way to force yourself to go contrarian. Of the three winning scoreboards we have access to, two of BeepImaJeep’s stacks were incredibly low owned. On his Cardinals stack, five of the six Cardinals players were used solely by him and the sixth was used by just one other person. On his Rays stack, all six players were owned solely by BeepImaJeep.
-Even when stacking, pitching is important. The disappointing Tigers stack was still able to win on a short slate because BeepImAJeep got 61.3 DK points out of his two pitchers. That accounted for 49.3% of his total points. On these three winning teams BeepImaJeep’s six pitchers averaged 27.5 DK points with a low of 20.95. Is he good at stacking? Yes. Does he win all these qualifiers without nailing the pitching? No.
-Of the stack fillers used by BeepImaJeep, he got at least something out of all of them, earning an average of 10.17 DK points per player for these six hitters.
Thoughts on BeepImaJeep’s incredible run, stacking or qualifiers in general?