CBB DFS Picks: Getting it Dunn
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of DCoop328’s CBB DFS Picks. Today we will break down the best plays at each price range (based on Fanduel pricing). Glad to be back giving you guys the College Basketball DFS plays of the day!
Ben Simmons (LSU, Forward)- Everyone better know Ben Simmons by now. He is the #1 NBA Draft Prospect, the do it all big man that everyone wants in their lineup. Most times this year I have faded him because of his outrageous price, but tonight he gets the Auburn Tigers. Auburn plays extraordinarily fast with the 47th (out of 351) ranked Adjusted Tempo nationally. Simmons is one of the top scorers, rebounders, and assisters in the country. If you can feel comfortable fitting him in your lineup with a few of the cheap plays, I couldn’t blame you, because that is absolutely one way to go.
Kris Dunn (Providence, Guard)- Dunn is another Top 5 NBA prospect that can do it all. Dunn’s usage rate of 30% is off the charts and he gets a matchup against Depaul who turns the ball over at an astounding 21.3 Turnover Rate (320th nationally). Kris Dunn comes into this game second in the country in steals, with a hot streak of 15 steals over his last three games. Dunn’s steals should be a nice 6-12 point boost to his fantasy score.
Note: At their current prices, it is going to be hard to fit in both Simmons and Dunn into the same lineup, so you will have to choose which way to go. If you put a gun to my head I am going Simmons over Dunn because of position scarcity and higher upside. Neither are absolutely necessary tonight, but each are very solid plays.
Yante Maten (Georgia, Forward)- Yante is coming off back-to-back games where he only played 20 minutes, so most casual DFS players will just put him on auto-fade. In CBB you have to look deeper, because foul trouble has run rampant in 2016, especially among forwards. Maten was in foul trouble those back-to-back games, which lead to his lack of run. Luckily today he gets to face the two South Carolina European Long Range Bombing Bigs of Chatkevicus and Kacinas. If Maten plays his full allotment of minutes (between 33-38) he should easily destroy his 4x value threshold. Honestly, if he had not gotten into foul trouble the last two games his price would be in the 9.5-10k range. If you want to fade Ben Simmons this is a great way to go to try to replace his points. Yante also gets a tempo boost against Carolina, the 51st fastest team in the country.
Derrick Walton Jr. (Michigan, Guard)- Derrick Walton Jr (PG) and Zak Irvin (SG) have been absolute monsters since Caris LeVert, one of the best players in the country, went out about a month ago. I have played each of these players in every slate, and they have provided a fantastic return. Now their prices have properly adjusted with each rising approximately $2,000 as a result of their newfound usage. With LeVert out, Walton has been extremely safe, racking up 24 or more fantasy points in every game. He gets a so-so matchup with Indiana, but he is about as safe as your going to get tonight, and should realize between 25-35 fantasy points.
Others Top Plays: Retin Obasohan
Upper Mid Range Plays ($7000-$8000)
Craig Sword (Mississippi St, Guard)- Sword, Quindary Weatherspoon, and super Frosh Malik Newman all are good options tonight. For my money, Sword is the superior of that group. He leads the team in usage by a hefty margin, he’s a triple-double threat every single night, and has top 300 steal and block rates nationally (As you will learn, steals and blocks are a huge part of CBB DFS. Those crucial stats can add 10 points if your player can produce just 5 of them combined, which is a huge number, considering your player may only score 10-15 points without those bonuses). Sword has been extremely consistent with his 5 category upside and has been a lock for 22+ fantasy points since conference play started.
Marcus Georges-Hunt (Georgia Tech, Guard)- MGH is the Georgia Tech offense – there are no if’s, and’s, or but’s. The ball is going to be in his hands, regardless of whether the Yellow Jackets run out their big or small lineup tonight. His price has risen with the conference play minutes increase, where he has recently played against some of the best defenses in the country (Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia). In these difficult matchups, Hunt played with high proficiency. However, taking a moment to exclude those games, MGH has been outstanding, scoring over 30 fantasy points in all but one game during conference play. That is exactly the type of production we’re looking for out of a $7,700 guy. Tonight, MGH gets Duke, who has been terrible defensively in ACC play (110 defensive efficiency). Another nugget is that MGH leads the ACC by a hefty margin in fouls drawn, which could hurt the Duke bigs when he drives into the paint for And-1’s.
Other Top Plays: Quindary Weatherspoon, Jameel Mckay
Lower Mid Range Plays ($6000-$7000)
Troy Williams (Indiana, Forward)- It seems crazy to see Troy Williams with a “6” at the front of his salary – but that’s exactly what we’re seeing. His minutes have dropped down to approximately 27 per game recently. Reason? The Hoosiers have played in some serious blowouts of late. Williams gets to face the Michigan interior of Duncan Robinson and Mark Donnal, which I believe to be the softest interior of all Power 5 teams. This is reflected in Michigan’s 12th place ranking in the Big 10 in Two Point Defense, in spite of their great defending wings. Troy Williams is one of those players that you know is going to break out for a 45-50 point game, and if it is going to happen, tonight is definitely the matchup we’re looking to exploit.
Derek Willis (Kentucky, Forward)- Willis is another player who will be on auto-fade by many as he is coming off of a foul trouble game against Perry Ellis and the Kansas Jayhawks. Before that game he had been extremely consistent. Now he draws a favorable matchup against the worst interior in the SEC. Let me rephrase that, they are tough, but their center is just 6’4″. Willis, Kentucky’s tallest starter at 6’10”, should tower over Moore and Baulkman, putting him in fantastic position for an easy double-double.
Cinmeon Bowers (Auburn, Forward)- Cinmeon is coming off a game and a half behavioral suspension, so we may need to monitor his situation up until lock to see if he has any minutes restrictions (I do not believe that will be the case). As stated earlier, Auburn is one of the fastest teams in the country, but their opponent in the LSU Tigers play even faster (26th in the country). This game is projected to be the highest scoring affair of the day and Bowers is simply underpriced. He makes up the third piece in the trio of Auburn studs and comes at a significant discount of $2,000 compared to the other two pieces of the triforce (Harris, Canty). When facing LSU, you always worry about foul trouble for players guarding Simmons, but Bowers only fouls an average of 3 times per 40 minutes, which is outstanding for college forwards.
Trevor Cooney (Syracuse, Guard)- Jim Boeheim is the best coach for DFS players because his athletes play the entire game unless they get in foul trouble. Cooney hardly ever fouls, so he always sees 39-40 minutes per contest (second on Cuse, 21st in country). Cooney does not have great rebounding or assist rates, but with 40 minutes of play, he usually can get you 3 or 4 of each. Cooney’s value comes from his ability to score, which he is great as he’s averaging 14 points per game on the season. At this low price (was $7.5k last week) I’m all over him, especially against the worst defense in the ACC.
Other Top Plays: Malachi Richardson, Jordan Roper, Craig Victor, Malik Newman
Value Plays ($4500-$6000)
Shannon Hale (Alabama, Forward)- Hale actually leads Alabama in usage and shot %, but his problem has been getting on the floor. He has been hampered with numerous injuries this season, but recently was moved back into the starting lineup. Buy Shannon Hale while you can – before his price jumps back into the $6k-$7k range.
Andrew Chrabascz (Butler, Forward)- If you played CBB DFS last year, you likely remember rostering Chrabz at $6k and $7k. He has been a different player this year (and I have heard rumors of injury), but at this price he is just so cheap, given his potential. He is still getting the same consistent minutes as last season, so I am going to assume his scoring is going to come back eventually. With his current scoring averages, he still represents a more than serviceable value selection, but he also brings last seasons 40 point upside to the table.
Antonio Blakeney (LSU, Guard)- This is purely a price play for the Super Frosh – and at this point – there are not any huge sub $5k values. As the day goes on and injuries come out, new value play opportunities may come to fruition. For now, we are stuck with Antonio Blakeney, a great shooter playing in the fastest game of the night. The increased tempo should give Blakeney an extra 10-15 possessions to knock down three’s and get a few more rebounds & assists.
Other Top Plays: Charles Mann, Bradley Hayes, Mark Donnal
* statistics courtesy of kenpom.com