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CBB DFS Picks: Shot Through the Hart

CBB DFS Picks: Shot Through the Hart
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Welcome to Saturday’s edition of DCoop328’s CBB Daily Plays. Today we will break down the top plays at each price range using FanDuel pricing.

Studs ($8000+)

Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, Forward)- Denzel is coming off of back-to-back blowout wins where he got to rest during the last 5-10 minutes of the game, hampering his fantasy output. In those games he put up 31 and 36 fantasy points, which is serviceable at his price. Today he faces in-state rival Michigan in a game where Michigan State is only a two-point favorite. If Denzel plays his normal allotment of minutes, he has easy triple double upside from his 77th ranked Offensive Rating, 7th ranked assist rate, and 143rd ranked rebounding rate. To be top 150 in these categories is unthinkable and only done by two or three players a season. Denzel is a complete stud and is worth the high price, especially in a rivalry game where he will have to exert his top effort.

Devin Thomas (Wake Forest, Forward)- The Wake Forest-Florida State game is absolutely the top game to target on the day. This will be a common theme throughout the article. FSU owns the ACC’s 2nd fastest adjusted tempo while Wake holds the ACC’s third fastest. Thomas is the Demon Deacon’s team leader in every important big man statistic including usage, rebounding, and blocks. The senior leader’s high usage combined with his great matchup makes Thomas an elite forward play.

Josh Hart (Villanova, Guard)- Josh Hart is Villanova’s best overall player. He also leads the team in usage and shot percentage. Nova’s starting center and second most used player, Daniel Ochefu is injured and remains doubtful for today’s game against Providence. With Ochefu probably out, Hart is going to have to continue to take on an even bigger role in the Nova offense. Hart also brings into play a top guard rebounding rate and with more rebounds available on the floor from the Ochefu injury (21st in country in rebounding) Hart has 15 rebound upside to go along with his scoring.

Other Top Plays: Retin Obasohan, Trevon Bluiett

Mid Range Plays ($6000-$8000)

Gary Clark (Cincinnati, Forward)- Clark has been one of the most consistent players in college basketball since the turn of the New Year. Last season and early this season, Clark and fellow forward Octavius Ellis split the lead forward role. Recently Clark has taken charge of that role and become a stud. He has scored double digits in 6 of 9 games since the New Year and has recorded double digit rebounds in 5 of those 9 games. To go along with Clark’s great scoring numbers, he has elite steal and block rates giving him a nice upside in tournaments.

Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon (Florida State)- As stated earlier the Wake Forest/Florida State game is the top game to target. Beasley and Bacon are two super-frosh who each come in at $7600 (Beasley G, Bacon F). Both players hold top 300 national usage rates and lead FSU in scoring. They have very similar stats in terms of assist, rebounding, steal, and block rates and honestly on paper look like near identical players. Out of the two, Bacon gets the edge for me because he won’t have to be guarded by Codi Miller-McIntyre, generally regarded as a very good defender in the ACC. With the matchup both are elite plays at their respective prices.

Abdel Nader (Iowa State, Forward)- With the recent suspension of Jameel McKay someone is going to have to pick up the scoring and rebounding slack for Iowa State. I think the minutes will slide to Deonte Burton and the starting lineup will just realign positioning. Burton is risky because the lineup will not be out before lock and there is no guarantee he will be in it. The safer option is Abdel Nader, who comes in second on the team in usage. Nader gets a matchup against a very week interior of Chris Olivier and Jeffrey Carroll, one that he and fellow forward Georges Niang should be able to dominate.

Troy Caupain (Cincinnati, Guard)- At this price if you are not playing Caupain you are going to be in a bad spot to cash anything. He is a hard fade even in tournaments. Caupain plays the most minutes for Cincy, along with a team leading 23% shot percentage and an elite 28.4 assist rate. Caupain and the Cincinati Bearcats face Memphis the 7th fastest team in the country. Coming off a monster 40 point game, Caupain’s price inexplicably dropped to its lowest of the year. With the huge tempo boost Caupain would be in play at 8k but at 6k he is a near must play.

Other Top Plays: Andrew White, Georges Niang, Anthony Gill, Prince Ibeh, London Perrantes

Value Plays

Obi Enechionya (Temple, Forward)- Obi stepped into the starting lineup last week with Bond out and has continued in it since Bond came back over the last two games. Since joining the lineup Obi has consistently put up 20-25 fantasy points, even in a game where he had to battle early foul trouble. Obi is second on the team in shot percentage while on the floor and is a great three point shooter (40%). He also holds an elite 4.1 block percentage and gets a matchup against lowly Central Florida.

Leyton Hammonds (Oklahoma State, Guard)- Stud point guard Jawun Evans is a game time decision with a shoulder injury. If he sits both Hammonds and fellow value guard Jeff Newberry are elite plays but if Evans plays they both lose a bit of value, but are still very safe cash game plays playing 30 minutes against up-tempo Iowa State (fastest team in Big 12). Hammonds gets the edge over Newberry because he is a much better rebounder.

Codi Miller-McIntyre (Wake Forest, Guard)- I just don’t know what to think about CMM right now. At this point last season he was approaching 9k and was worth every penny. Now we see Codi as a cheap value option. He gets a great matchup in the super fast FSU-Wake game, which should allow him enough possessions to hit his 4x value. CMM is also in play for tournament because we all remember from last season that Miller-McIntyre has triple double upside.

Darryl Reynolds (Villanova, Forward)- Assuming Ochefu is out with his concussion (80% chance he is out in my opinion) Reynolds makes for an elite cash game play. He is not much of a scorer but is locked into 28-32 minutes of play. Reynolds value comes with his top-300 rebounding rate. Reynolds has utilized this over the last two games, recording 9 and 13 rebounds respectively. Fellow teammate Mikal Bridges is also in play as a value forward and is usable alongside Reynolds. Villanova normally uses a 4-man big man rotation but with Ochefu out Reynolds-Jenkins-Bridges are splitting the minutes leaving between 24-35 for each player. I predict Reynolds and Jenkins to be around 32 minutes and Bridges to be around 25 minutes.

Other Top Plays: Jeff Newberry, Mikal Bridges, Deonte Burton, Jalen Reynolds

Good luck today everybody and as always if you have any questions hit me up in the forums or on twitter @dcoop328dfs !

 

*All statistics courtesy of kenpom.com *

1 Comment

  1. DCoop328

    February 6, 2016 at 11:22 am

    Newberry/Hammons/Burton are now top Guard options with Evans/McKay officially out.

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