Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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There’s a variety of ways to build rosters tonight given a 12-game slate that features a handful of strong center values at a variety of price points. If paying up for a point guard, there are two clear options: Chris Paul (LAC) and John Wall (WAS). Paul exceeded expectations in a difficult matchup against Memphis the other night and he’s capable of that due to increases in his usage rate, assist rate and minutes per game with Blake Griffin out. He’ll have a tough individual matchup tonight facing Patrick Beverley (questionable), but Paul will benefit from one of the better overall game environments (215.5 total, 3.5 point spread). If you can’t quite afford Paul, the next option is John Wall. Wall is fairly priced but has an excellent matchup against an up tempo Minnesota team (seventh in the NBA in pace) that struggles defensively (dead least in team defensive efficiency, 29th in defensive efficiency against point guards). This game has a tight spread of two points.
Ricky Rubio (MIN) – Rubio doesn’t have a great matchup on the surface (Washington is 16th in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency against point guards), but Rubio should have some success in pick-n-roll situations as Washington’s defense is susceptible to those play types. More importantly, though, Rubio is underpriced. Sites are not yet reflecting the effects of the Mo Williams trade. Rubio has averaged 36 minutes per game over his last three contests with the minutes rising in each one. The increase in minutes has translated to DFS success as he exceeded 40 DraftKings points in each of those contests. At $7,000 on DraftKings (12 percent above the average cost of a roster spot), Rubio has a value threshold of 36 DraftKings points. We expect Rubio to play around 36 minutes and with a 1.13 DraftKings points per minute average, there’s a strong probability of him hitting or exceeding his value threshold for a fourth consecutive game.
Mo Wiliams (CHA) – Williams, like Rubio, benefits from being underpriced as a result of his trade. Williams has played 38 minutes in back to back games for a Hornets team fighting for the eighth seed in the East. With that amount of playing time, his salary should be much higher than $5,600 (10 percent less than the average cost of a roster spot). Based on his seasonal average of .95 DraftKings points per minute, Williams will on average hit his value threshold in 32 minutes. The matchup is also favorable. We previously mentioned that Williams’ move to Charlotte was a fit stylistically as he succeeds in pick-n-roll situations as the ball handler (39 percent of his play types, .82 points per possession, both above league average) and Charlotte runs that play type more than any other team but two. Meanwhile the Bulls have specifically struggled defending that play type. Teams run that play type 17.7 percent of the time against the Bulls (league average is 14.96 percent) and average .85 points per possession (.78 is the league average). Furthermore, Derrick Rose is out, which means Mo Williams could see some of Aaron Brooks who is horrific in those situations.