Very soon the BC Lions will be having to make a choice between two quarterbacks, one who started the season as “their” guy and one who has played like more than just “a guy”. Of course I’m talking about Jonathon Jennings and Travis Lulay. Luckily for everyone involved, the choice between those two is not one I have to make. Whatever quarterback is chosen by the Lions will have an impact on our CFL daily fantasy lineups though… Or will it?
I took a dive into the numbers to see what kind of production each receiver and running back has generated with each quarterback throwing them the football. First, let’s take a look at the two quarterbacks themselves…
It’s very clear that Travis Lulay is the better DFS option, especially considering we haven’t seen much of a price decrease when it comes to the lesser producing Jonathon Jennings. Lulay has been more effective, throwing for more yards and touchdowns per game than Jennings, and it’s not even close. This is one comparison that is quite simple for us.
When doing this research, I was lucky enough to find that each of the Lions top three receivers played in every game. Emanuel Arceneaux, Bryan Burnham and Nick Moore are very clearly the top three targets to look at when dissecting these numbers.
Between these three receivers only one of them saw a major boost in fantasy production with either quarterback under center, Nick Moore. Moore saw his stats rise 7.78 fantasy points with Lulay at quarterback. Look deeper into these stats though and you’ll see that if you take away his 10/220/1 game in week four his numbers see just under a one fantasy point difference when comparing with Lulay to with Jennings.
3.5 fantasy points is the difference between Emmanuel (Manny) Arceneaux with Lulay under center compared to Jennings. Like Moore, Manny and Lulay have just been a better combination. He’s finding the end zone more as of late and those three touchdowns are making up for a decrease in yardage.
Bryan Burnham has seen a 2.75 fantasy points increase with Lulay under center for the Lions. In those four games he has seen a significantly smaller amount of targets (9.3 to 4.8), but he has found the end zone twice in the last four games with Lulay compared to zero with Jennings. To go along with that, the 100+ yard bonus has also been reached twice in these last four games.
Looking at the three main targets for both BC quarterbacks, all three saw an increase in fantasy production, but only two of those player’s numbers should totally be trusted (Arceneaux and Burnham). Those two players saw an increase of just 3.5 and 2.75, something significant but only a small part of the story that needs to be told here.
With Lulay under center, the upside of each of these receivers has seen a significant increase. Lulay at quarterback owns the four best performances with each receiver owning a top three position. In total, he owns seven of the top 10 performances compared to Jennings’ three. Lulay has three more data points, so this could be skewed but when looking at average place finish (out of 21), Lulay’s average finish is 9.67 compared to Jennings’ 12.78.
Lu-lu-lu-luving Lulay at Quarterback
At the end of the day there’s no doubt who should be at quarterback if you were to ask CFL daily fantasy players. Give us Lulay or give us death! Ok, it’s not that serious, but it’s hard not to be enthusiastic about this quarterback “battle”. Bryan Burnham certainly has our approval, as Lulay has connected with him for the most fantasy points and two of the top four BC Lions’ fantasy performances in 2017. As average as Manny has been in 2017, he too has to approve as chicks dig touchdowns (and the long ball). As for the Lulay to Moore connection everyone seems to love? Well, it happened one time, but besides that one time the connection has been similar to the cellular service in classrooms at Virginia Tech – really really poor.
The Lulay vs Jennings battle really isn’t one in our eyes, but of course these coaches that are paid to make decision will surely go against what we think. Jennings will be moving back into the starting quarterback role soon and we should account for that when picking BC receivers. Either way, we are set with the research needed to help us draft the best CFL daily fantasy lineup.
Hit up myself, @RealestChrisKay, or Ben, @benyamen, to discuss this very topic or CFL daily fantasy sports in general as week eight approaches.