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CFL Daily Fantasy DraftKings Week 16 – Alex of Green Gables

CFL Daily Fantasy DraftKings Week 16 – Alex of Green Gables
Chris Kay
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Week 16 CFL daily fantasy action is exciting us right now! After a few weeks of diminishing slates and odd featured slate selections by the powers that be, we have ourselves a normal big slate that is being filled up quite well! It’s up to us to keep it going and play as much as we can. Let’s fill these games up and show DraftKings that 2018 should be a huge season and we’re game for it! Let’s start it off with projected team totals before getting to the plays…

PROJECTED TEAM TOTALS

Winnipeg – 35.25
Edmonton – 29.5
BC – 28
Toronto – 26.75
Saskatchewan – 25.25
Ottawa – 23.5
Montreal – 22.5
Hamilton -22.25

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected:

Matt Nichols, WPG – $10,900
Mike Reilly, EDM – $11,300
Kevin Glenn, SSK – $9,900

Let the Winnipeg love begin! It all starts under center with Matt Nichols who has performed admirably generating an average of 23.7 fantasy points per game in 2017. His matchup against Hamilton is a great one and with the highest implied team total in the slate (35.25), it makes sense to start your lineup here. All things considered, Nichols feels like a safe play for low 20s with obvious upside because of the extremely high total.

Mike Reilly is an elite quarterback that’s usage ranks him second to one this week. With an implied team total of 29.5, the Eskimos including Reilly are loved by the projections. There is a very thin margin of difference between Nichols and Reilly, leaving it up to you to decide which quarterback you can afford. Pricing is tight this week, so it might make sense to “spend down” a little and grab Nichols, but it’s hard not to love Edmonton’s projected 64 offensive snaps in this one against Montreal. Personally I’m going with Reilly in my lineups, but only if I feel comfortable with the last flex player that I have to slot into my lineup.

Kevin Glenn poses as a nice option because of price and season averages, but if you look at his play recently and on the road, this is one to avoid. Projections can’t decipher between home and away and it’s these road games (against a good defense I should add) that he has really struggled with in 2017. There’s a 15-fantasy point total difference between his home (28.7) and away (13.4) averages.

Punt Single:

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $8,700

Hamilton has turned it around a little after starting off horrible to start the season. They have three of their last five games and have scored 20+ points four times. Jeremiah Masoli has led the way as the Tiger-Cats quarterback in those five games and this week poses as an interesting tournament option. He gives you great salary relief with a price tag of just $8,700 but is extremely limited when it comes to upside. His ceiling is in the 23-25-fantasy point range, which is essentially the floor for guys like Nichols and Reilly.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected:

Andrew Harris, WPG – $8,600
C.J. Gable, EDM – $6,900
Alex Green, HAM – $5,400

If there was a DFS CFL MVP this season it would have to go to Andrew Harris. The man is doing it all, likely ending the season with over 1,000 rushing and receiving yards to go along with seven touchdowns to date. The Blue Bombers are projected to score five touchdowns, leaving us with no reason to believe he doesn’t end up with at least one in this one. The game script also plays in Harris’ favor, as they are almost two-touchdown favorites. Finally, Harris projects five fantasy points higher than every other flex player this week and third overall (including quarterbacks).

C.J. Gable is a fresh face in Edmonton where his talents may really be shown to the max in a capable offense. In Week 15 he dominated on the ground rushing for 157 yards and two touchdowns and now is on an Edmonton offense that is projected to run 64 plays and is notorious for 15+ touches for their running backs. Because he is new to the team we are somewhat leary, but his price ($6,800) and high upside leave him extremely desirable this week at Montreal.

Who would have guessed that Alex Green would be a fantasy relevant player in 2017? Not us! We had very little idea who he was before he burst onto the scene at BC rushing for 140 yards and bringing down two receptions. Hamilton’s offense has improved and we’ve seen Green and Gable perform much better in the past five games or so. With Gable gone, this leaves Green with a great opportunity at a moderate cost. This is definitely a great week to use three running backs in your lineup and Green should be considered in all formats.

Punt Single(s):

Tim Flanders, WPG – $5,300
Trent Richardson, SSK – $5,500

Tim Flanders moved into a slotback role a few weeks back and has been great there ever since. This move has obviously increased his role as a receiver but he’s still being used as a running back, tallying five and seven carries in the last two games. With the game script pointing towards the Blue Bombers having a lead in the second half we definitely could see 5+ carries to go along with whatever usage he has in the passing game (11 receptions in the past two games).

Trent Richardson is an interesting option going into this week. Because he is priced at $5,500, he’s not an automatic play like he would be if he was min-priced like many new players to the player pool. He should be considered in large format tournaments at a 10-15% rate though because of speculation that Saskatchewan wants a bulldozer type running back like Jerome Messam. Some believe they signed a run first, pass protect last type running back to pound the rock and be used around the goal line. Richardson is that guy and while he may see the typical 6-8 carries and a few targets through the air, there’s the chance he sees Messam type numbers (15 touches).

RECEIVER

Top Projected:

Naaman Roosevelt, SSK – $8,000
Derel Walker, EDM – $8,700
Brandon Zylstra – EDM – $9,200
Darvin Adams, WPG – $8,200
Duron Carter, SSK – $8,600
Greg Ellingson, OTT – $8,500

Naaman Roosevelt rates as our top play at receiver but isn’t the man you want to pay up for at the position. He’s coming off an upper-body injury and sees his quarterback on the road (Glenn) where he struggles immensely. This isn’t the week to pay up at receiver where pricing is tighter and the upside is limited in Roosevelt’s situation.

As long as CFL daily fantasy contests have been around, there have always been two top-tier Eskimos receivers to target. Last year it was Adarius Bowman and Derel Walker. This year it has gone from Adarius Bowman and Brandon Zylstra to Zylstra and Duke Williams or Vidal Hazelton or Bryant Mitchell. It’s been a wild ride but one worth taking. Reilly is a top-tier quarterback and he always seems to find a way to get his receivers the ball. This time around it’s Zylstra and Walker in that order. Projections love both this week and Walker really pops out at us. Since coming back to the CFL, Walker has averaged just fewer than eight receptions per game to go along with a little less than 90 yards receiving per game. Zylstra has shown the high upside games you love to see out of a high-end receiver thus making a great option week in and week out. He’s generated 25 fantasy points in five games this season. Consider both great options and completely viable options if punting the position with Christion Jones, a receiver we recommend below.

Darvin Adams is the clear best receiver in the Winnipeg offense but that hasn’t always resulted in the best numbers. Regardless, he has as high of an upside as everyone else in this slate and comes at a cheaper price than every other top projected receiver listed in this article. How do you pass this man up when the Blue Bombers have the highest team total by almost a full touchdown? Adams does come with a lower floor than the previously mentioned receivers but has elite upside you’re looking for in a high-end play.

Let’s keep this next play simple… Duron Carter. See above (Naaman Roosevelt).

Greg Ellingson has a little bit of the same issue as the Saskatchewan receivers in that he’s super talented but has quarterback issues. It looks like Trevor Harris will be back under center this week, giving him some hope for resurgence, but any players first game back from injury can be sketchy. Ottawa also has an implied team total of just 23.5, not something we’re looking to invest in considering the slate’s pricing.

Punt Single(s):

Clarence Denmark, WPG – $5,500
Christion Jones, SSK – $3,000

Clarence Denmark really pops in projections and rightfully so. The Blue Bombers are the clear best offense to target and he’s an extremely viable target in this offense. He won’t put up huge reception totals, but whose to say he won’t catch two touchdowns like he has done in two of the past five weeks? The price tag is $5,500, a price tag we see as a good one to target considering the slate.

Christion Jones had a big week last time out scoring a return touchdown and easily crushing value because of it. This week he maintains his full return duties, which to us is enough to warrant using in a decent exposure to him in lineups. He’s minimum priced and should be able to hit value on average returns alone. If he has a great day he could easily exceed 10 fantasy point and make our minimum priced dreams come true.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Winnipeg – $5,100
Saskatchewan – $4,800

To me, Winnipeg is the clear top defense to target in this slate as the matchup is great and the defense is big on turnovers. They have generated three straight games of double digit points and now face Jeremiah Masoli, a lesser quarterback in the CFL. It’s tough to pay up for a defense this week but if you have the money to do so then this is the team to do it with.

Saskatchewan’s defense has been great this season and they’ve also produced in the past three weeks. They’ve generated almost 10 fantasy points per game over the last three and have games of 29 and 30 fantasy points. What’s not to like about that?! The upside is there with this team and with Ricky Ray chucking it 40+ times there will be plenty of opportunities to put up a big game.

If you’re looking to punt at defense then look towards Toronto and BC, teams facing inadequate offenses with flashes of greatness on defense in the past.

LIGHTNING ROUND

Projections really love Winnipeg and Edmonton players and with good reason. Because of that there were a few teams that were not represented in the rankings. Here are a few players at different price points to help you manage your roster if you want to shy away from Winnipeg/Edmonton players in a few lineups. We expect these players to be lower owned…

Jeremiah Johnson, BC – $7,500 – Great option in just an unfortunate week. There are other very solid options that cost less than Johnson therefore leaving him off of the article.

Luke Tasker, HAM – $7,200 – Has produced recently but still is limited in upside because of his quarterback. The game script favors Hamilton passing a ton so there’s always reason to consider him in large format tournaments.

DeVier Posey & Armanti Edwards, TOR – $8,300/$6,600 – Posey is extremely touchdown dependent while Edwards is more dependent on receptions. Both are decent options but aren’t too sexy because of implied team total, quarterback play, and lack of high target rates.

Bryan Burnham, BC – $8,300 – Burnham is the receiver I would target of the BC options. He’s had some huge games this season and while Manny Arceneaux has had some good games lately as well, Burnham is the one I covet going into this week.

Tyrell Sutton, MTL – $6,200 – Sutton is the check down king and we have seen that recently, generating 4, 5, and 4 receptions over the past three weeks. At Calgary and Toronto he saw double digit carries, something that is enticing thanks to the price tag and usage in the passing game.

If you want to chat CFL daily fantasy then please hit me up at @RealestChrisKay or pester Ben at @benyamen on Twitter. We’d love to chat CFL with
you!

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