The best offences to stack in GPPs for CFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings have high implied team totals, have receiving corps with condensed market shares of targets, and have high offensive pace projections. All three of Calgary, Edmonton, and Hamilton check off the boxes this week and provide good options for lineup construction with some of the value plays available elsewhere. It should be a high scoring and entertaining Week 16.
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Implied Team Totals
Calgary – 33.25
Edmonton – 31
Hamilton – 29
Saskatchewan – 27.25
Winnipeg – 25
BC – 22
Montreal – 20.75
Toronto – 19.75
At first glance everything about checks out with the implied team totals and there’s no weather concerns in any game on the forecast. It should be a straightforward week to stack Stampeders versus Toronto and let others fall for Jonathan Jennings fool’s gold versus Hamilton to cover the rake. Be sure to keep an eye on injury news for Andrew Harris, Don Jackson, Eric Rogers, and Brandon Banks as all are expected back this week but any of them being inactive would significantly affect builds for this slate.
Mike Reilly, EDM – $11800
Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $11200
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11000
Mike Reilly and the Eskimos offence laid an egg for fantasy players on Saturday in Ottawa. The offence lacked any sense of urgency or rhythm and never got on track versus a Redblacks defence that is fine but not dominating. Reilly and the offence lollygagged their way to the line after each play as though they were up multiple touchdowns throughout the game rather than down. It was excruciating to watch. The offence should expect a slight bump in pace this week versus Winnipeg as the Bombers allow the third most plays per game to opposing offences. The passing matchup versus the Bombers isn’t good given they allow a below average number of passing yards per attempt (7.89) and the second fewest total passing touchdowns (10). Reilly is always in the conversation, but this matchup makes him less than a slam dunk to be the top play.
Bo Levi Mitchell on the other hand gets to lead the second most efficient passing attack in the CFL (9.24 Y/A) versus the most generous pass defence to this point (9.74 Y/A). The Argonauts made the Saskatchewan passing offence look dangerous at times last week. Even with an injury depleted receiving corps – that may get Eric Rogers back this week – Mitchell leads the league in touchdown passes (27) and faces off against an Argos defence that allows the most touchdown passes per attempt to this point and that has allowed the second most plays of 30+ yards (26). Even if Rogers doesn’t suit up, Mitchell is set to have one of his best games of the season.
Jeremiah Masoli and the TiCats passing game have looked somewhat sluggish the past two weeks without Brandon Banks. With Banks speed to take the top off the defence, Tasker has been unable to get open with consistency and the whole offence has bogged down. With Banks back at practice this week, it’s likely he returns to game action and the Hamilton offence returns to the dynamic aerial attack it had shown with the duo of Banks and Tasker wreaking havoc. Masoli passes for the most yards per attempt in the league (9.49) and BC defence is about the league average in the regard. With Alex Green on IR, it’s likely more of their TDs come through the air as well.
Andrew Harris, WPG – $8200
John White IV, HAM – $5400
Don Jackson, CGY – $7100
William Stanback, MTL – $5700
Martese Jackson, EDM – $3800
Andrew Harris got off to a great start versus the Alouettes last week before leaving the game early on with a lower body injury. He returned to practice Wednesday, so things are looking hopeful. If Harris plays, he’s the clear top play at RB and no one else comes remotely close. Winnipeg averages the most yards per carry this season (5.87) while Edmonton allows the second most yards per carry (5.75) to go along with an above average rate of TDs per carry allowed. If active, Harris is a priority spend on this slate and if he misses Kienan LaFrance becomes a solid value at $3400. Winnipeg’s playoff hopes will live or die with their running game.
The drop in projections after Harris is precipitous but so is the salary level for the most part. John White was an adequate Green replacement last week compiling 16 fantasy points on 19 carries and two receptions. His 3.3 yards per carry weren’t great but Hamilton as a team averages 5.51 yards per carry while BC allows 5.05 yards per carry themselves, so a workload like that for White in Week 16 could easily see him crack 20 fantasy points despite a mean projection closer to 14. Even at that level though, he’s an excellent value as BC allow the third highest rate of rushing TDs per attempt.
Romar Morris has done an exceptional job filling in for the injured Don Jackson over the past month in Calgary but the Stamps are usually a one man show in the backfield. If Jackson is fully healthy again following the bye week, he will likely get the start and the vast majority of the workload. Toronto has gone from allowing the second fewest yards per rush in 2017 (4.84) to allowing the third most in 2018 (5.3) and have been trending downward since midseason. A rested and healthy Jackson could have a field day on Friday chewing up clock and yardage in the second half in a game that is not expected to be close with Calgary a -13.5 favourite.
The trade of Tyrell Sutton to BC on Tuesday cemented William Stanback as the Als running back going forward. Stanback had his best game as a pro in Week 15, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, versus a reasonably stout Bombers rush defence that allows the third fewest yards per carry this season (4.98). The Als offence is still the lowest scoring in the league at 15.4 points per game and also runs the fewest offensive plays per game (49.7) so Stanback’s ceiling is somewhat low but at only $5K he’s still a great value with a defined workload.
If players are looking for another punt option for their flex spot, Martese Jackson looks to be getting the kind of workload in Edmonton that he deserved in Toronto. He should see a couple of carries and receptions each week going forward along with full-time duties in the return game. He’s a poor man’s Chris Rainey in a more powerful offence. Winnipeg allows the third most yards per kickoff return (23.4) so Jackson should have opportunities to produce on special teams. He’s a boom or bust option.
Eric Rogers, CGY – $8800
Duke Williams, EDM – $10100
Brandon Banks, HAM – $9600
Reggie Begelton, CGY – $7500
Luke Tasker, HAM – $8700
Marken Michel, CGY – $7400
Bryant Mitchell, EDM – $5400
Bryan Burnham, BC – $8900
Rashad Lawrence, HAM – $3500
Bralon Addison, HAM – $3300
Eric Rogers is back at practice this week with the Stamps and looking in good form. The Argos present the most desirable matchup in the league allowing the highest rate of yards per catch (9.74) and the highest rate of receiving touchdowns per target. With Kamar Jorden and DaVaris Daniels sidelined, Rogers would instantly become the top target for Mitchell on a week the Stamps have the highest implied team total on the slate (33.25) all while remaining priced below other teams top receiving options. His teammate Reggie Begelton has performed well in the absence of his running mates, but he doesn’t have the same physical skills as Rogers. None the less, Bageltown is open for business and cooking up some delicious value for his price despite a significant bump in salary.
As mentioned earlier, the Winnipeg pass defence isn’t nearly the pushovers they’ve been in the previous couple seasons, allowing only 7.89 yards per reception and the second fewest plays of 30+ yards this season (16). Duke Williams has the physical tools to dominate any game, but this isn’t the most likely setting for him to excel in. Working in his favour though is a pace projection for 57.6 plays – second highest on the slate – and an Eskimos passing game that is still third in the league in yards per attempt and second in passing TDs per attempt. His teammate Bryant Mitchell may be a more attractive play at $5K in Eskimos stacks but he doesn’t have the same ceiling as Duke.
Hamilton’s dynamic duo round out the top of the projections with Banks expected to return to game action this weekend. Banks may be the most dangerous receiver in the CFL when healthy, having eclipsed 100 receiving yards in eight of his eleven starts this season and compiling six receiving TDs in his last five games. His teammate Luke Tasker is also likely dependent on Banks health for his own value as the offence without Banks hasn’t shown nearly as much life. If Banks is back, Tasker is worth consideration as part of a Hamilton double stack. Rashad Lawrence hasn’t flashed any big play ability but PPR scoring provides him some reasonably safe value while he averages six targets per game in the injury depleted TiCats receiving corps. Teammate Bralon Addison may also be worth punt consideration as he may get a couple targets in the receiving game along with punt and kick return duties.
Bryan Burnham is a difficult spend at nearly $9K. He has six receiving TDs in his past five games and had over 30 fantasy points versus the strongest pass defence in the CFL last week, however it’s difficult to believe Jonathan Jenning can look that good in such a difficult matchup two weeks in a row. It’s likely a mistake to completely fade Burnham, but at this price he’s not a player it would be wise to highly invest in either.
Saskatchewan Roughriders – $5100
Calgary Stampeders – $5300
Montreal Alouettes – $4000
There are a number of different ways to attack the slate on defence but the top option has to be the Roughriders big play defence facing off against the low scoring and turnover prone offence of the Als led by Manziel. The Riders are first in forced two and outs (78), second in forced turnovers (32), and third in sacks (31), while Montreal is second in offensive two and outs (76), fourth in turnovers (28), and first in sacks allowed (48). There should certainly be opportunities for the Riders pass rush to create opportunities for defensive scores.
The Stampeders matchup is similarly appealing in terms of a points allowed and turnovers standpoint as they lead the league in forced turnovers (37) and points allowed (20.7) while the struggling Argos offence has given up the most turnovers in the league (30) while scoring the second fewest points per game (22.1). Calgary’s ability to turn turnovers into points can’t be overlooked.
If players are looking for a cheap defence though, Montreal may be the best option available. They have noticeably improved their play over the past month and although they are not a good defence, the Roughriders are a notably bad offence. The Riders score the second fewest offensive points per game (19.6) so if the Montreal offence can minimize mistakes this has a 19-13 kind of final score well within its sights. The Als defence could be a cheap source of fantasy production.
That’s it for Week 16. Stack your Stamps, Eskimos, and TiCats, fill in the values and hope June Jones doesn’t burn the slate to the ground. Good luck in all your contests!