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CFL Daily Fantasy DraftKings Week 10: Splitting Harris

CFL Daily Fantasy DraftKings Week 10: Splitting Harris
Chris Kay
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Welcome to week 10 of the CFL daily fantasy season where prize pools are getting smaller and the salaries are getting tighter. It just makes you really want to max enter everything doesn’t it? Well, it doesn’t, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be profitable this weekend. While people are tending to their NFL research, this is the perfect weekend for tight pricing. This weekend’s action will surely get the best out of CFL daily fantasy players as it’s impossible to just pick names out of a hat and be successful. When you’re setting your lineups, deciding between players will kind of be like splitting hairs. Let’s take a look at the implied team totals and get right to the rankings shall we…

Team Totals:

Calgary – 32.5
Edmonton – 30.75
Ottawa – 28.5
Winnipeg – 27.75
Montreal – 26.75
BC – 26.5
Saskatchewan – 23.25
Toronto – 22.5

Quarterback

Top Projected:

Mike Reilly, EDM – $11,400
Matt Nichols, WPG – $10,200
Trevor Harris, OTT – $10,500

Punt Single:

Kevin Glenn, SSK – $9,600

Another week of projections are here and yet again we see Mike Reilly dominate the numbers. The Edmonton signal caller has been mighty impressive recently, generating 31+ fantasy points in five straight contests. His rushing potential (32 carries in those five games) keeps his floor quite high and makes up for throwing just 35.25 times per game this season. I’m expecting Brandon Zylstra to be back for this one raising his floor even higher with such a reliable receiver back for the Eskimos. It’ll take some creativity to get him in your lineups thanks to tight pricing, but he’ll certainly be worth it.

After Reilly is a bunched up group of quarterbacks that just seem so bland when comparing to the leader of the group. Matt Nichols projects the second best in this slate and will provide some salary relief from Reilly. The Blue Bombers have won four straight on the backs of Nichols and Andrew Harris. Thankfully, Harris is a talented running back that does a ton of damage through the air. Nichols has been extremely efficient and faces off against Montreal’s defense who ranks middle of the pack when it comes to opposing quarterback fantasy points.

Trevor Harris
has shown his cards at this point in the season. He’s a fairly high floor guy with limited upside when it comes down to it. In 2017, he has played nine games, thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns, yet has never broken 30 fantasy points in a game. Let’s call a spade a spade here. BC isn’t the best of matchups and while his receiving corps received a nice boost with the return of Kenny Shaw last week, Harris is a guy I’ll be using sparingly this weekend.

When I saw the projections for this one I couldn’t be more upset. I like Kevin Glenn, but I can’t get myself to use him in anything but large entry formats. Thinking positively about him, he has a very solid receiving group led by Duron Carter and Naaman Roosevelt and has thrown it 40+ times three times in 2017. Glenn is the guy I’d go with in tournaments at this cheap a salary, with Ricky Ray in the rear view mirror.

 

Running Back

Top Projected:

Andrew Harris, WPG – $7,900
Jerome Messam, CGY – $7,500
LaDarius Perkins, EDM – $6,700

Punt Single:

Roy Finch, CGY – $5,300

It is Andrew Harris’ world and we are all just lucky to be living in it. That’s how I currently feel about the Blue Bombers star running back. The man who looked to be splitting a backfield with Tim Flanders has done nothing but impress in the past two weeks. Ben and I were worried about his usage in the passing game, but last week’s contest against Edmonton certainly changed that. He caught eight passes for 120 yards, so it’s safe to say he’s going to be used in the passing game still. Montreal gives up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2017 and Harris is the best option there is right now.

As if this weekend could not get any tougher, the projections love Jerome Messam. Look, I’m all about Messam and rolled him in the majority of my lineups last weekend, but the man is coming off a knee injury scare! If you told me that he would be 100% healthy for this matchup against Toronto I would be all about him, but that’s just something you’re not going to be able to get this weekend. With his high cost it’s tough to pick him over Harris, which should at least give you low ownership on Messam.

After rushing for 105 yards in the week seven game against Hamilton, LaDarius Perkins has rushed for just 100 yards on six more carries in two games since. Nonetheless I’m still a fan of Perkins this weekend against Saskatchewan. His usage against Winnipeg last week was abnormal for an Eskimos running back and I would expect that number to be closer to 18-19 touches than the 13 he received last week. Considering the options around his price tag, this is (another) good week to roster two running backs in your lineup.

Using Roy Finch this week will definitely be a tough pill to swallow, but there’s some upside to this play. Calgary can’t possibly feed Jerome Messam the football after last week’s injury scare and Finch has sure fire points built into his box score because of his return duties. Finch is the guy you would have in just about every lineup at this price point (especially this week), so why not take the chance that he’ll see an uptick in touches (4.3 per game over his last three) and have a big game against Toronto? (UPDATE: Terry Williams will start over Messam if he is too injured to play in this week’s game NOT Finch).

 

Receiver

Top Projected:

Brandon Zylstra, EDM – $9,200
Greg Ellingson, OTT – $10,100
Darvin Adams, WPG – $8,000
Naaman Roosevelt, SSK – $8,200
Marquay McDaniel, CGY – $8,500
Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $8,300

Punt Singles:

Armanti Edwards, TOR – $6,000
Clarence Denmark, WPG – $4,200

Going into this week I’m expecting Brandon Zylstra to be active against Saskatchewan, and so we see him back on top of projections as the top receiver. Before getting hurt against Hamilton in week seven, he had put up three 100+ yard receiving games with 25 total catches. The man is a machine in Mike Reilly’s offense that is super efficient. If Edmonton is to reach their implied team total than Zylstra has to be a good sized portion of that and while pricing is tight, it’s clear that a healthy Zylstra is the guy you want this weekend.

Greg Ellingson took advantage of a prime matchup against Hamilton last weekend and went HAM. 10 catches for 155 yards and one touchdown later, we see Ellingson as the highest priced receiver of the slate. Unfortunately, he seems pretty unplayable all things considered. His floor is fairly high (15-17 fantasy points), but at that cost in a week that has little to no value it’s very difficult to pay up for him in an average matchup.

Don’t look now, but Darvin Adams is putting up some big numbers for a guy that isn’t targeted at huge rates. Last week’s game against Edmonton was a good one as he generated 22.25 fantasy points against a defense that hadn’t given up more than 15.4 fantasy points to a top two receiver on opposing offenses. There are a ton of targets to go around in Winnipeg with Weston Dressler remaining out, so Adams will continue to have big upside from week to week.

The Edmonton Eskimos will be in the lead for most of the game against Saskatchewan which is great news for those wanting to use Naaman Roosevelt. Roosevelt was a high volume guy going into week seven, but has been slowed to just three catches per contest over his last two games (both against BC). He is a very safe play going into the weekend as his floor is easily double digits, but his upside feels limited. With the tight pricing this weekend, it’s tough to really want to pay $8,200 for what you’re likely going to get out of him (13-17 fantasy points).

Don’t shy away from Marquay McDaniel this weekend as it might just be the perfect time to use him. All things point his way as Kamar Jorden continues to be out and now we see Jerome Messam somewhat banged up. Bo Levi Mitchell, the man with three first names, was just not good last week and if we see typical BLM then that means big things for McDaniel. When it comes to this Stampeders’ offense who else would have a big game? DaVaris Daniels has potential, but it’s McDaniel that typically sees the most targets of those likely to play against Toronto in week 10.

Brad Sinopoli has been a very consistent performer this season and so it’s no surprise that he comes with a hefty price tag this week. He leads the CFL in receptions and is third in yardage, so he’s obviously a successful player, but combining price tag and per game rates result in him losing his appeal. Unfortunately, I just can’t get behind using him in formats other than large entry tournaments. Roosevelt, Adams and McDaniel all rate better than him and subsequently I see myself using all more than him because of it.

Armanti Edwards doesn’t pose as a huge value, but I’m writing about him here because of his price and potential. There isn’t a whole lot to choose from in the 5-6k range and so he is the guy I’m targeting the most when looking at this price range. He had a nice game last week with Ricky Ray healthy and under center, catching six passes for 48 yards and a touchdown. With Anthony Coombs out, there is going to be some slack picked up for by the other receivers and Edwards should be one of those guys. I like him a good bit in a week where value is hard to come by.

I’m reaching really deep here with this one, but when looking at super cheap receiving options I keep landing on Clarence Denmark. It’s a tough choice, but he has been very consistent four or more catches in three straight games and he does have two touchdowns on the year. With Weston Dressler continuing to be out, it’s only a matter or time before one of Denmark or TJ Thorpe breakout for a huge game.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Winnipeg Blue Bombers – $4,800
Toronto Argonauts – $4,400

Winnipeg’s defense is quite the turnover machine as they have 14 turnovers so far in 2017 and have added 20 sacks to that total so far. With Hamilton off this week, it’s tough to peg a clear number one defense, but I’ll be going with Winnipeg for a few reasons. They’re facing a Montreal offense that either will be running slow and will likely be limited in their scoring or will be moving up-tempo and have turnover machine Darian Durant throwing 40+ times. Either way this is big for those that want to use Winnipeg’s defense.

Choosing Toronto’s defense in this spot is more about saving a few hundred bucks than it is the actual matchup. Sure, Calgary looked awful last week, but you can’t expect Bo Levi Mitchell and crew to be that bad every time out. With that being said, you’re looking at a Toronto defense/special teams that has three touchdowns on the season. They’ve also really put some pressure on the quarterback, sacking him 30 times so far. I’ll be using Winnipeg mainly in my lineups, but when needing a few extra bucks Toronto is who I’ll be targeting.

That does it for week 10. We’ll keep updating this article throughout the week as depth charts roll out and projections adjust. Be sure to join in the conversation in the DailyRoto Forum and hit us up on Twitter at @benyamen or @RealestChrisKay. Enjoy the games, and good luck in all your contests!

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