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CFL DFS Week 13: A Reilly Reilly Tough Week Ahead of Us
Chris Kay
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DraftKings has tightened it up this week, so value is at a premium in week 13. Punting a position is certainly a possibility and there’s no such thing as a sure fire cash game lineup. With that being said, it’s week 13 and I’m tired of churching up this intro paragraph. Let’s get right to it, my Canadian friends…

Vegas Totals:
Hamilton – 31.5
Calgary – 31.5
Edmonton – 30
Winnipeg – 28.5
Saskatchewan – 25
Ottawa – 22.5
Toronto – 22
Montreal – 21.5

Quarterbacks

1. Mike Reilly, EDM
2. Zach Collaros, HAM
3. Matt Nichols, WPG
4. Darian Durant, SSK

This week Mike Reilly hops into the number one spot even though I bashed their offense in my strategy article this past week. There is a mixture of reasons why this has happened: matchup, implied team total and pricing. Reilly’s matchup against Saskatchewan is an elite one as the Rough Riders are the worst team in the CFL, consistently giving up big numbers through the air. The Eskimos have struggled this season to put up points week in and week out, yet Vegas still has their implied team total at 30, third best of the weekend (Hamilton and Calgary have the two highest totals at 31.5). Lastly, Zach Collaros’ price has continued to rise and is now sitting at $11,800. With the lack of cheap flex options, saving $800 by going down to Reilly is a valuable pivot.

draft_promo_forumBo Levi Mitchell is my favorite cash game option in week 13. His price is very appealing being considerably less than Collaros and his consistency ranks him ahead of Reilly in cash games, where Reilly struggles the most. He does have limited upside, which is why Reilly ranks ahead of him here. Over his past four games, Mitchell has generated no more than 29.52 Fantasy points, but no less than 22.02 Fantasy points. During this long season, he has recorded less than 20 Fantasy points just three times.

Zach Collaros struggled last week at Toronto, but I’m still high on him going up against Montreal. Sure, the matchup is difficult, but Vegas doesn’t seem to think it’ll be that tough (implied team total of 31.5). With his high price tag, ownership levels should be low making him an elite tournament option in this slate. He has great options to throw to and while they might not rank as the highest players on the board at their position, together they make things very easy for Collaros.

Darian Durant makes for an interesting tournament option and one that could be used in multi-entry formats. He’s performed great against Edmonton this season in two games (315.5 yards per game and six total touchdowns), but has struggled mightily the majority of the season. His favorite receiver, Naaman Roosevelt, could miss this game due to injury and if that is the case Durant would become unplayable.

Running Backs

1. Shakir Bell/John White, EDM
2. Jerome Messam, CGY
3. Brandon Whitaker, TOR
4. Tyrell Sutton, MTL

James White is battling an injury, so I’ve slotted both possible starting running backs here. White hasn’t been as great as people thought he’d be this season, struggling to break 15 Fantasy points over the past five weeks. Shakir Bell has had one start this season and it was against this very defense. In that game he ran for 138 yards on 18 carries and added four more receptions. Whoever gets the nod in this one becomes my top running back.

Jerome Messam will cost you a pretty penny thus making him a tournament only option. With his $8,300 price tag, you must use a quarterback like Durant to squeeze him into your lineups. Once you do get him into your lineup you’re feeling great, as he’s averaging 64 rushing yards per game and has at least one touchdown in five of his last six games. What I love most about this big fella is that he catches the football. Messam is averaging 3.5 receptions per game this season and 4.2 since week three.

Brandon Whitaker poses as an interesting option this weekend at Winnipeg. The Argos offense should rely on him to carry the load with their struggles and injuries at the quarterback position. Like Messam, Whitaker has done quite well through the air, averaging 4.1 receptions per game in 2016.

Tyrell Sutton is the cheapest running back listed in my rankings this week, just $100 cheaper than the Edmonton backs. Bargain shopper beware though, Montreal has the lowest implied total of the slate and they are expected to lose by double digits. Sutton’s value will have to come from the passing game and/or a touchdown or two. He’s the pivot tournament option to the two Edmonton running backs in this slate.

Wide Receiver (High Priced)

1. Adarius Bowman, EDM
2. Naaman Roosevelt, SSK
3. Luke Tasker, HAM
4. Weston Dressler, WPG
5. Terrence Toliver, HAM

So, I might have “bashed” on the Eskimos’ offense last week in my strategy article, but I wasn’t expecting them to face the worst defense in the CFL coming off a game where the offense played very well. Adarius Bowman ranks up at the top coming off a 10/119/1 game against a very solid Calgary defense. Bowman has been very good against Edmonton, recording games of 4/81/0 and 6/141/3 against them this season.

dr_300x250_nflNaaman Roosevelt might have an injury issue, so be aware of that heading into this slate, but if he’s healthy then I love him against Edmonton. He’s about $2,000 cheaper than Bowman this week and carries about the same upside. Like Bowman, he’s had some success against his matchup this week, bringing down 11 catches for 175 yards against Edmonton in week 10. Keep an eye on his health, but if he plays then he’s a great option in this slate.

Luke Tasker disappointed last week, but we shall not turn our back on the one who brought us all the monies over the past few weeks! Before his dud against Toronto last week, he’d caught a touchdown in four straight games and averaged seven receptions per game. Montreal is a tough defense, but it’s a reliable receiver like Tasker that will help Collaros be on his “A” game in week 13.

As Ben talked about last week, Toronto’s defense is amongst the worst in the CFL against the pass. Well, Weston Dressler gets this great matchup in week 13 coming off some very good games. Over his last four games, he has gone for 23.5, 14.7, 20.1 and 33.8 Fantasy points. He does have some upside like we saw when he went for 12/118/1 against Calgary in week five, but he’s known more for his consistency and reliability. Consider Dressler the cash game pivot to Roosevelt in this slate.

Terrence Toliver is a big tournament option because he doesn’t command a lot of targets per game (six). He also has a tough matchup and is priced pretty high all things considered. With all of this being said, Toliver has a touchdown in five straight games and has gone for 100+ yards three times during that span. He won’t hit value based off of receptions, but instead because of yardage and ability to find the end zone. Against Montreal that’ll make this play riskier, but one that could pay big dividends if he plays like he has recently.

Wide Receiver (Mid Range)

1. Greg Ellingson, OTT
2. Bakari Grant, CGY
3. Davaris Daniels, CGY

Greg Ellingson is certainly not the model of consistency as he followed up a 5/142/0 game with one where he caught one pass for negative three yards, but he’s got himself a chance at a big game against Calgary in week 13. I’ve already mentioned times where talented receivers have gone for big games against the Stampeders and that could certainly be the case with Ellingson here. He’s a risky option, but might be the tournament option of the entire slate with how low owned he’s likely to be this week.

Bakari Grant is the first Calgary receiver I want to target this week, which is a surprise considering the team’s implied total (31.5). Grant needs a little luck on his side as Joe West’s return would hurt his value in this one. Keep an eye on West’s health, but if he’s out then most definitely look to Grant in this matchup against Ottawa. He has scored in three of his last four games and has caught six passes in three straight games.

Ben has done a great job talking about Davaris Daniels in the past, so I’m not going to overdo it here today. He’s a very high risk/high reward player that has capitalized plenty on limited targets that are thrown a long way. Lately he’s been great, going for 100+ yards and at least one touchdown in two of his last three games. Like Grant, his value depends on Joe West’s health.

Wide Receiver (Cheap)

1. Kevin Elliot, TOR
2. Ricky Collins, SSK
3. Armanti Edwards, SSK

Kevin Elliot and Ricky Collins are the top two “punt” type options in this slate, which should tell you something about how DraftKings’ scoring system has changed. It’s much tougher this week and quite honestly these two are options that could do well this week or straight up disappear. Elliot has caught 12 passes for 180 yards and one touchdown over the last two weeks, but a new quarterback that isn’t all that great could seriously hinder his state line. Ricky Collins’ value comes mainly from punt/kick return value mixed with some action in the passing game, so Roosevelt missing this one would likely be a huge bump for Collins.

If for some reason Armanti Edwards starts at receiver for Saskatchewan then he’s a guy you definitely want to target. He’s a punt option that would be a returner AND starter, making him very valuable especially in this slate. I wouldn’t expect a big stat line, but instead plenty of return yardage would hopes for a 3/50/0 type day through the air at the least.

Defense

1. Toronto
2. Montreal

Toronto and Montreal have two things going for them this week – they’re both cheap. Both are below $4,500 and in a week where pricing is tight, I don’t mind using them even though they both have average to bad matchups. Toronto ranks ahead of Montreal here because they’ll be facing Montreal who could be without Andrew Harris. Montreal faces a Hamilton offense that is coming off of their worst performance of the season with Zach Collaros under center. I’m certainly not projecting a bad day out of Collaros, but considering their cheap cost and ability to play great defense, I don’t mind some Montreal usage here.

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