CFL DFS Week 6: Enjoying the Wild Wild Weston
Let’s get to my CFL DFS Week 6 picks right away, shall we?
Edmonton – 31
Ottawa – 28.5
Calgary – 27.5
Montreal – 25.5
Saskatchewan – 24.5
Winnipeg – 22
BC – 22
Toronto – 20.5
1. Mike Reilly, EDM
Mike Reilly is the clear number one quarterback in this slate. He has generated 30+ Fantasy points in three straight games and has done this by throwing 41 times per game this season. He has thrown for 10 touchdowns this year and faces a defense that is missing multiple starters in the secondary. This matchup might be the best he’ll have in 2016.
After Reilly, things get very confusing. There is a possibility that Darian Durant is back at quarterback for the Roughriders this week and if he is then he ranks number two. The salary relief he provides from Reilly is quite nice and allows for easier roster construction. If Mitchell Gale gets the start then he becomes a great option as well. (UPDATE: Durant is out for the game Friday, meaning Gale will be getting the start).
Matt Nichols is getting the nod against Edmonton and has a $7,500 price tag. He looked good in limited action last week against Calgary, throwing for 88 yards and one touchdown on 15 attempts. He won’t light up Edmonton’s defense, but they should be playing from behind all game long and he does have some solid weapons around him (Dressler/Adams/Harris). Edmonton’s defense is weak against the pass (2.39 points per drive is worst in the CFL. 9.45 yards per attempt) and makes for a great matchup.
Ottawa has recently announced their quarterback and it’ll be Henry Burris, the former MOP. His price ($10,500) will keep people off of him, but he’s an elite quarterback in the CFL facing a Toronto defense that gives up nine yards per attempt. Use Burris as a pivot from Reilly in tournaments, but you can’t accept the risk of his price tag this week in cash games.
1. Brandon Whitaker, TOR
2. John White, EDM
3. Andrew White, WPG
4. Nic Grigsby, OTT
5. Anthony Allen, BC
In terms of pure talent, I’m not a huge fan of Brandon Whitaker, but when it comes to DFS, he’s my cup of tea. After just six touches in week one, he has averaged 16.3 touches and 16 Fantasy points per game. With a backup quarterback under center, you can expect Whitaker to see plenty of touches against Ottawa.
John White and Andrew Harris are two high-priced running backs that make for great tournament options in this slate. The smart money is spending down at this position to pay up for the quarterback and receiver positions, but using White or Harris will create nice lineup variation. White should see plenty of touches with Edmonton being big favorites, while Harris will need check downs from the backup quarterback to overcome a high likelihood of not reaching the end zone.
In Nic Grigsby’s first three games, he has generated 19, 14 and 18 touches. With a price tag at just $6,300, he makes for an elite cash game option at this position. Toronto is a middle of the road defense, giving up 6.15 yards per play and 4.62 yards per carry. Anthony Allen makes for a very interesting option when BC faces off against Calgary this week. BC has an implied total of just 22 points (second lowest in the slate) and Allen isn’t the best of pass catchers. He has seen just five targets over his first two games and hauled in four catches. I like Allen more for multi-entry tournaments.
1. Adarius Bowman, EDM
2. Derel Walker, EDM
3. Naaman Roosevelt, SSK
4. Weston Dressler, WPG
5. Chris Williams, OTT
6. Emmanuel Arceneaux, BC
7. Marquay McDonald, CGY
8. Darvin Adams, WPG
9. Ottawa Receivers Not Named Williams
10. Duron Carter, MTL
Any way you look at it, Adarius Bowman is the top receiver in this slate. After his third game of double-digit targets, he’s averaging 11.5 targets per game in 2016. His price per target currently sits at $957. He’s also facing a defense that is down multiple defensive backs including their two best in the secondary. In cash games, the question isn’t if you should play Bowman, but how you fit him into your lineup this week. Derel Walker, Robin to Bowman’s Batman, is another elite option that provides slight salary relief. After a 14-target game, he’s now averaging 10 per game and has a price per target of $1,040.
Naaman Roosevelt is the next man up in my rankings and it’s all because of usage. The man once saw less action than a geek in the 9th grade, but he’s come on strong with games of 12 and 10 targets. Montreal’s pass defense is one of the worst in the CFL, allowing 9.28 yards per attempt and only has three interceptions in four games. Roosevelt could see Darian Durant back in action on Friday, and if not, we saw Mitchell Gale was plenty good enough for Roosevelt to perform well.
Weston Dressler was a guy I loved last week because of the injury to Ryan Smith and an increased role in the offense coming off injury. He showed up big time, catching 12 passes for 118 yards and one touchdown in the week five loss to Calgary. Even with a new quarterback under center, I fully expect for him to see 10+ targets against Edmonton. He’ll be a staple in my cash game lineups, hopefully paired up with an Edmonton receiver.
We finally reach Chris Williams and his sticky situation at quarterback. I can’t possibly roster him unless Henry Burris is back from injury. Last week we saw Williams struggle to see targets and the end result was just one catch for 14 yards. With so many great receivers around him, it’s tough to feel safe about Williams at his current price and quarterback situation.
Emmanuel Arceneaux and Marquay McDonald are two receivers that I feel are underpriced and should be well worth a look in week six. Arceneaux’s price per target sits at $800 while McDonald’s is at $1,000. They see plenty of usage (9.8 and 8.5 targets per game) and provide a nice step down in pricing from the elite receivers this week. Arceneaux is more of a tournament option for me while McDonald is better suited for cash games.
After those seven receivers, the options become pretty bleak. Darvin Adams, Duron Carter and every Ottawa receiver not named Chris Williams make for interesting options in tournaments, though they all come with obvious inherent risk.
Wide Receiver (Value)
1. Anthony Parker, BC
2. Kenny Shaw, TOR
3. Shawn Gore, BC
4. Jace Davis, WPG
5. Thomas Mayo, WPG
Price per target was a huge fan of Anthony Parker last week, but even then I ranked him sixth on my value receiver rankings. He ended up having a huge game (7/81/1) and won’t be overlooked again. Joe West is likely out again this week meaning Parker has a chance at seeing similar targets as his last two games (8.5 per game). Parker is a core value option this week in all formats.
If you’re looking for a mid-5k option on DraftKings then look no further than Kenny Shaw. He’s a much different player with Tori Gurley hurt. Over the last two weeks with Gurley sidelined, Shaw has generated a 16/180/1 line. In the three games Gurley has played, Shaw has produced a stat line of 10/153/0. If Gurley is out again this week then consider Shaw a great mid-range play.
Shawn Gore and his 6.8 targets per game are slightly underpriced in this matchup against Calgary. His price per target is $874, which is just $41 more than Shaw. If you’re not a fan of Toronto starting a new quarterback due to Ricky Ray’s injury, then roll Gore for almost the same price.
Jace Davis and Thomas Mayo are two options from Winnipeg that have great price per target numbers. They actually come in at one and two this week with Mayo’s being ridiculously low at $545. While I truly believe there is validity in using this stat, Mayo’s usage feels shaky to me. I’m going to use both in tournaments when needed. Mayo would be a great way to get Bowman and Walker in the same lineup. (UPDATE: Thomas Mayo is a late scratch and is not playing this week. Instead look at Geraldo Boldewijn from BC for your punt WR needs).
All three defenses this week could be facing backup quarterbacks, which makes for a huge reason why they’re ranked the way they are. Ottawa faces Toronto’s backup quarterback, Logan Kilgore. Canadian Vegas has the Argonauts at an implied team total of just 20.5. The offense isn’t very explosive to begin with, but with Ricky Ray out and Tori Gurley questionable, this matchup is great for the Redblacks.
Edmonton faces a Winnipeg offense that is projected to score just 22 points, so of course the Eskimos’ defense should be considered. They have given up the third most points in the CFL even though they have played just four games. With the new quarterback and broken down offensive line, Edmonton should have a great shot at multiple sacks and turnovers this week.
Montreal’s matchup against Saskatchewan isn’t the best, but Durant has been prone to turnovers in his career. The Alouettes are averaging three sacks and 1.5 turnovers per game. If things go their way, you’re looking at a solid day out of a near minimally priced defense.