Chris Kay’s Sunday MLB DFS Picks
Sunday’s are a great day for baseball especially when it comes to Daily Fantasy baseball. We get a jam packed slate and a night game to cap it all off. On this Sunday we are treated to a bunch of aces and the return of Chris Sale. It’ll be interesting to see how Sale is treated his first start back from injury, but one thing that’s for sure is that he’ll have himself a solid matchup against the Twins.
**All stats used do not include Saturday’s MLB action.
While I do think Chris Sale is a legit option today, I won’t be targeting him a whole lot. My favorite pitcher in this huge slate is Max Scherzer. He has himself a really nice matchup against the Phillies and an elite changeup that should beat a lot of those lefty Phillies bats. He punched out eight in his first start of the season and is always a great strikeout option. It’s also nice to see that there really isn’t a whole lot of power in the Phillies’ lineup. Howard and Utley have some power, but that’s where the list ends.
In the middle tier of pitchers, I really like Tyson Ross facing the Giants. The total is one of the lowest of the day at 6.5 and the Giants haven’t really been crushing the ball against the Padres this season. In the first two games of this series, the final was 1-0 with the two teams taking one game each. The Giants could be without Brandon Belt, their stud first basemen and they’re already missing Hunter Pence. The lineup is thin and they too don’t have a whole lot of power besides Buster Posey. The Padres are also the favorite in this one, so even more incentive to use Ross on Fanduel.
If you’re thinking cheap and contrarian, look to the Tigers Kyle Lobstein. The total for this one is 8.5, so I don’t suspect a lot of people targeting either pitcher, but how many runs will be because of that Tigers lineup? Lobstein has six starts in his career with two of them being against this same Indians squad in 2014. He threw 10.1 innings and struck out 12 against them. This Indians lineup had just a .300 wOBA and a .108 ISO against LHP last season.
It’s really hard not to like Miguel Montero once again today when he faces off against Jordan Lyles. He has a great spot in the lineup, fourth, and a great hitting environment with the game being played at Coors. Other catcher options I like are Jason Castro and Salvador Perez. Castro faces Colby Lewis and has more success against RHP with higher wOBA and ISO against them last season. Perez gets the platoon advantage as well facing C.J. Wilson. He already has one home run against LHP this season and while he struggled against them last season, he has a career wOBA 53 points higher (.365) against them than RHP.
Both first basemen in the Colorado/Chicago game are great options and I feel like pretty much everyone realizes that. Adam Lind‘s price hasn’t jumped a whole lot despite a hot start and faces Casey Sadler, a guy with 10.1 innings thrown in his MLB career. In 124.2 AAA innings, he recorded just a 5.56 K/9. Lind is red hot recording eight hits in his first four games. There are a ton of other great options to spend on like Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Abreu. Gonzalez’s price should be inflated, so I would advise going with Abreu, the cooler of the two, and most likely to be cheaper and lower owned. Abreu faces Phil Hughes, a reverse splits pitcher who is susceptible to the long ball.
Neil Walker routinely gets good matchups and his today doesn’t get any better. Kyle Lohse is an extreme contact pitcher and boy did hitters make contact against him in his last start. Lohse gave up eight runs, two of which came by home run, in just 3.1 innings against the Rockies. Walker sees a huge boost in power hitting from the left side seeing his ISO jump from .093 to .222 against RHP. Andres Blanco is an extreme punt play due to his lack of pop and tough matchup. The one stat I’ll throw in from Saturday night is two hits against a somewhat similar pitcher in Doug Fister. He is a guy you use to avoid paying up for Walker or a guy like Robinson Cano.
Any time Troy Tulowitzki is at home, he’s an option, but there are a few other guys to consider. Billy Hamilton already has seven steals on the season. Any time he’s on base he’s two pitches away from reaching value. The opposing pitcher in this matchup, Carlos Martinez, has issues walking batters as seen by his 3.63 BB/9 in 2014. The total in that one is pretty solid coming in at eight. He’s not my favorite option, but is a step down from Tulowitzki. Andres Blanco also qualifies for shortstop and is a punt option here as well.
Aramis Ramirez has the advantage against LHP over RHP, but it doesn’t make him a bad choice. His .356 wOBA against RHP is still very good and he’ll be in a great park to hit (Miller Park). Sadler is a guy I could see stacking against due to his high contact rate and Ramirez is right in the thick of it. Whether he’s hitting four or five, I really like his potential. Mike Olt in Colorado is a really cheap way of getting exposure to the Cubs and Rockies game. He has huge power and Coors Field should be very good to him this weekend. (**editors note: Mike Olt was drilled in the wrist yesterday and is unlikely to play today)
Yawn. Insert any and all Coors Field participants, but beware these guys will cost you a good bit. Guys like Chris Coughlan and Dexter Fowler will come at the cheapest of prices if you need more coverage in this game. Eric Young Jr. continues to be a great cheaper option in the outfield and faces Bartolo Colon at home. Colon is a heavy fastball pitcher and that’s the best pitch EY Jr hits. In Colon’s career, his wOBA is 28 points worse against left-handed bats. Staying within the Mets/Braves game, John Mayberry Jr. should be seeing a start against Alex Wood and he has crazy splits against LHP. His wOBA was .391 against LHP compared to .264 against RHP in 2014. Also, his ISO was .329 against LHP compared to .105 against RHP. He should be hitting third in the order and is a prime target for salary cap relief.
Bryce Harper came out of the box hot with two multi-hit games, but has cooled since. On Thursday and Friday, he had two hat tricks, so the price is getting about right on Draftkings. His price is considerably cheaper there compared to a ton of outfielders. Sean O’Sullivan’s career 4.28 K/9 makes it really hard for Harper to not put the ball in play today.
Andre Ethier should find himself in the lineup against Josh Collmenter and the Diamondbacks today and that’s great for us. Left-handed bats had a .328 wOBA last season against him, which was 59 points better than against righties. Ethier also sees that kind of advantage against RHP with a career wOBA of .380, almost 100 points better than his wOBA against LHP. He could be hitting directly behind Adrian Gonzalez, which should give him a good shot at hitting with guys on base in this one.
Best of luck on this wonderful Sunday afternoon. Let me know who you like today in the forums!