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College Football DFS Week 10

College Football DFS Week 10
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Week ten this season is probably my most anticipated weekend of the season. Not because Old Dominion gets to possibly knockoff their first SEC team ever or because FSU gets a tough Thursday matchup against Louisville. The reason why I can’t wait for this weekend is the Georgia/Florida game on Saturday. It’s going to be wild, crazy, and memorable depending on who you ask.

What’s not going to be memorable are some of these salaries on most of these sites. Pricing has gotten tough and it’s made me reach into my bag of tricks to find some cheap plays that free up space for the big boys. It’s the weekend of the running back, so the value is going to be found at receiver and quarterback for me. I apologize in advance for my Treon Harris love as it certainly doesn’t help that I’ll be in attendance for the game. I’m a big believer in #FreeTreon instead of #FreeGurley. I rank them both here in this week’s article. Enjoy!

EARLY QUARTERBACKS

1. Marquise Williams, UNC – I talked about Williams in The Fifth Quarter and with good reason. The guy has been rocking it at quarterback lately and we no longer have to worry about Trubisky replacing him. He gets a friendly matchup against Miami in what should be a very high scoring game. This offense is rolling in 2014 averaging 37 points per game while Miami has struggled against the best offenses they have faced. Against Cincinnati, Miami gave up 34 points. Against Nebraska they gave up 41 points. Even against Louisville they gave up 31. With Williams being the heart and soul of this offense, I have no issue rolling him out there at this price.

2. Sam B. Richardson, Iowa State – There are many things to like about Richardson, but his passing attempts trending upwards is the best. He has been a part of high scoring affairs lately and has been forced into throwing 53 and 55 times in the last two games. In those games, he has three passing TDs in each and also added one rushing TD. His matchup against Oklahoma is very good as quarterbacks like Tyrone Swoopes and Jake Waters have been very efficient against them. Oklahoma is ranked 105th in passing yards allowed per game. With the Sooners giving up two passing TDs per game in each of the last four, I think Richardson comes as a very safe play.

3. Cody Kessler, USC – Look. I’m not the biggest Kessler fan, but you have to love this matchup for him. He gets to face one of the worst passing defenses in Washington State Saturday. The Cougars have allowed 21 passing TDs on the season to just two INTs. They have allowed 265 yards passing in six of eight games in 2014. Kessler is coming off a tough Utah matchup in which he looked solid and an amazing game against Colorado where he threw for 319 yards and seven TDs. Vegas has this game at a total of about 65 with USC only being seven point favorites. That is great news for Kessler in this one.

4. Greg Ward Jr, Houston – Don’t look no, but Ward has been pretty good in 2014 as a quarterback. He is passing a lot (30 times a start) and has done it efficiently (70% completion percentage). He has also added some rushing numbers, which is obviously great for daily fantasy players. While South Florida has allowed only 11 passing TDs on the season, they have allowed back-to-back 300+ yard passers. Passers are also completing two thirds of passes against them in 2014. I really like Ward Jr. for cash games where 20-25 points seems like a safe bet with the way he can run.

5. Justin Holman, UCF – While I’m a big fan of how he has played recently, I’m really digging his price here with most guys being expensive. He struggled against Tulane, but did great against Temple and BYU. He has thrown for 300+ yards and two TDs in two of his last three games and UConn poses an above average matchup for him. They have just two INTs on the season, but have allowed only 12 passing TDs. I think Holman for his price will be worth it considering the way Central Florida has had to pass due to inability running the football.

6. Trevor Knight, Oklahoma – Knight is a guy that my #LuTV comrades would 100% dog me for, so don’t tell them I have him ranked here. I really don’t think this guy is that special, but he’s been pretty solid recently. Texas is a tough matchup and it showed as he struggled, but he was great against Kansas State and TCU. He gets the worst defense he has seen in a while when he faces Iowa State Saturday. Knight also gets Keith Ford back for some carries and catches. This should help the offense very nicely. With Knight’s ability to run, he could break loose for some long runs and give you the kind of points you need to win with a solid pivot play here.

7. Treon Harris, Florida – Harris started against Missouri a few weeks ago and looked very good. He completed 67% of passes and was good for two total TDs. If Muschamp wants to not get booed out of the stadium he won’t let Driskel see the field. Harris is a pure GPP play and one for those who want to fade Devin Gardner. I can see Harris put up 20+ fantasy points with full snaps and a solid day on the ground. The chances aren’t great though, so limit your usage of him. Georgia has been great against the pass

8. Brad Kaaya, Miami – Before the game against Virginia Tech, Kaaya had looked really good. He had some very solid games against Cincinnati, Duke, Nebraska, and Arkansas State. The game against the Hokies though is nothing to worry about as they just didn’t need to pass to beat them. The freshman has played much better at home with a TD to INT ratio of 11:3. His completion percentage is better and yardage per game a good bit better. Now, against UNC he gets probably his second best of the season. UNC has allowed 20 passing TDs on the season and even gave up 284 passing yards to UVA, their third best passing total on the season out of eight games.

LATE QUARTERBACKS

1. Cody Fajardo, Nevada – Fajardo had a pretty bad passing game last weekend, but made up for it huge with his running. He ran for over 100 yards and two TDs against Hawaii and it really saved his total. You can’t expect that yardage each week, but you can’t count on just 128 passing yards either. He gets to face San Diego State, a team that hasn’t been challenged since Oregon State and UNC earlier in the season. Fajardo’s talent against any smaller school is good enough to be a safe play. His upside isn’t huge though, so limit yourself to mid 30s in points.

2. Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion – Heinicke bounced back from bad yardage games against UTEP and Marshall to have a huge game against Western Kentucky. He threw for almost 500 yards and three TDs. In four of his last five games, Heinicke has been good for 22, 32, 33, and 49 fantasy points. With a matchup against Vanderbilt, you have to think he’s primed for another night in the 30s. Teams haven’t needed to pass much against Vandy, yet they’ve allowed a 13:2 TD to INT ratio.

3. Anu Solomon, Arizona – Solomon is coming off one of his best games in 2014, throwing for five TDs and almost 300 yards through the air. If you believe in the every other game theory then he’s due for a 70+ passing attempt game. Against UCLA, he’s got a better matchup than most people think. They rank in the 100s in passing yards allowed per game and have given up seven TDs to just two INTs in the last three games. Arizona State and California put up monster numbers against them and their offenses are pretty similar.

4. Josh Dobbs, Tennessee – A pure pivot play here, Dobbs comes in at a fairly cheap price and should be starting for the Vols against South Carolina. He put up over 20 fantasy points against Alabama last weekend and although the Crimson Tide could have struggled due to not preparing for him to play, he still was solid. Now he gets to face off against a South Carolina team that has been brutal against so many quarterbacks in 2014. Credit to @putboobiein for mentioning this play to me.

5. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State – Grayson has flown under the radar in 2014 and it’s time to start recognizing him. He has 11 TDs in his last four games and that’s with a dud against Utah State two weeks ago. He has a star receiver in Rashard Higgins to help him out at any time and will throw the ball plenty of times to get good chances at big numbers. San Jose State leads the country in lowest passing yards per game, but their competition has been weak. With Grayson and Higgins hot, I really like Grayson to be a nice option for his price.

EARLY RUNNINGBACKS

1. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska – Abdullah has 12 TDs in the last four games to go along with two games of 200+ rushing yards. He has finished with 40+ fantasy points in four of his last five games and gets to go against Purdue this weekend. Michigan State and Minnesota scored five times on the ground and added 579 yards in last two games.

2. James Connor, Pitt – Connor was going through a cold spell for a few weeks, but if you trusted me last week then you benefitted greatly. He has put up five TDs and 205 yards on 26 carries in the last two weeks. Now, against Duke, he gets a bad rushing defense even against bad offenses. In four of the last five games, Duke has allowed 200+ yards on the ground including against teams like Kansas and Tulane. Connor got a little banged up last week, but looked fine. Keep an eye on any changes throughout the week, but he should be good to go with a great matchup.

3. Duke Johnson, Miami – Duke’s matchup is better than Connor’s, but his price is significantly higher on some sites. He’s coming off quite possibly his best game ever and gets a UNC matchup that is amazing. They have given up 4.7 yards per carry and 20 rushing TDs in 2014. In eight games this season, UNC gave up multi-TD games in six of them. With Johnson being a talented runner even in limited carries, he’s sure to have a good game on the ground and through the air. He has 19 catches on the season with two catches or more in each of the last six games.

4. Samaje Perine, Oklahoma – Keith Ford is back this week, so this is probably the last week to use Perine at a price like this. He’s going to get carries taken away from him, we just don’t know how many. If news comes out that Ford is starting then I shy away from this play. Otherwise, I really like Perine against Iowa State. They have allowed 24 rushing TDs on the season and teams are averaging just under five yards per carry. Teams have crushed them on the ground scoring at least two TDs on the ground every game and having four TDs or more on the ground in four of seven games in 2014.

5. Jon Hilliman, Boston College – Hilliman has been very good at scoring, but rushing for big yardage hasn’t come easy for him. The Eagles offense is completely based around running, but it has worked for them so far. Against Virginia Tech this weekend, they’ll face a team that did exactly what BC wants to do against VT. Hilliman is the lead back for the Eagles, rushing 20+ times in four of the last five games totaling seven TDs in those four games. The Hokies have given up six rushing TDs in each of the last three games and at least 4.3 yards per carry or more.

6. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin – Gordon is a simple play this week and not the highest running back on the board. He’s close though. He has ten TDs in the last four games and has four straight games of 120+ yards. While Abdullah has the better stats recently, Gordon has the better matchup. Rutgers has allowed 11 rushing TDs in the last three games and 616 rushing yards in the last two games.

7. Marshawn Williams, Virginia Tech – Williams is a good play for those looking to go cheap at this position, but he carries limited upside. He is coming off an ankle injury a couple of weeks ago, but should be 100% in this one. He ran 20 and 21 times in solid matchups, but only ended with 147 yards and one TD. His matchup is pretty bas as Boston College has been very stout against the run in every game except for two in 2014, but I still think he’s worth a flier at his price. The only thing that holds me back on him is the group of running backs that are worth paying up for. If you look to go a different route and pay for quarterbacks then Williams should at least be guaranteed goal line carries and at least 20 total on the game.

8. Corey Clement, Wisconsin – Time and time again I have written about Clement and his potential with limited carries. Well, he’s getting more due to Wisconsin’s offense rolling and I think it does again against Rutgers. Rutgers should be without their quarterback and they’re very bad against the run. Melvin Gordon is very good and won’t be stopped. Clement is the same way and with 14 carries should get very close to 100 yards pretty easily. He has 10+ carries in five games in 2014. In those five games, he has run for 45, 111, 77, 164, and 90 yards.

LATE RUNNINGBACKS

1. Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State – With Illinois’ putrid run defense coming into town and JT Barrett having a bum knee, I just had to rank Elliot here. The Fighting Illini have been so bad against the run allowing 21 TDs on the ground this season and six yards per carry or more in three of the last four games. While Elliot isn’t going to put up rushing numbers like Melvin Gordon, David Cobb, or Ameer Abdullah, he can certainly put up numbers like a Purdue running back. The Boilermakers ran for over seven yards per carry and had four rushing TDs that game. Elliot has 100+ yards in three of his last four games.

2. Josh Robinson, Mississippi State – I imagine if Robinson had a walk-up song it would likely be Miley Cyrus’ “Wreckingball.” The guy is impossible to take down and has been an unsung hero for the Bulldogs. He has six TDs in his last three games and has TDs in six straight. He ran for almost 200 yards last week against Kentucky and gets Arkansas this weekend. The Razorbacks are still reeling from that bad game to Nick Chubb just a few weeks ago. Chubb ran for 202 yards on 30 carries and added two touchdowns.

3. Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn – I have been pretty disappointed with the lack of TDs in 2014, but he’s been putting up the yardage lately. He gets a soft price against Ole Miss and with decent reason. Ole Miss is a very good defense, but they’ll be missing a linebacker and this rushing attack is typically never slowed down. CAP has 100+ yards in three of his last four games. If you’re a fan of underpriced talent then he has to be your guy. Just don’t expect a huge game out of him unless he vultures some TDs from Marshall.

4. Royce Freeman, Oregon – Freeman has really emerged as the running back to use in Oregon’s offense, so you have to consider him here. He gets a stout Stanford defense, but this isn’t their typical stud defense. Freeman has rushed for 100+ yards in three straight games, but more impressively he’s added eight TDs in those three games. Now that he’s getting most of the carries, Freeman has become a pretty great consistent play. He has 18+ carries in five straight games.

5. Mike Davis, South Carolina – Mike Davis has to be one of the most consistently underpriced players in the NCAA, but he always seems to perform for me. Davis has a TD in four straight games and has 100+ yards in three of the last four. Tennessee has struggled against the run at least when it comes to TDs. They have allowed rushing TDs in seven straight games against them. Davis is also a PPR threat with a catch in every game this season.

EARLY WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Nelson Agholor, USC – Agholor blew up for a huge game against Colorado a few weeks ago, but look closer into his numbers. With any kind of matchup he’s pretty much been a lock for 20 fantasy points. Now, he gets a great matchup again and is coming off his highest catch total on the season. It’s clear Kessler favors Agholor the most on the team, so it’s a great time to roll him out there. His price is appealing and is a very good cash game option with solid upside.

2. Justin Hardy, East Carolina – If you want to go expensive at receiver then Hardy is your guy this weekend. He’s coming off some huge games totaling 32 catches, 420 yards, and four TDs in his last three games. Temple is a bad team against the pass when faced with teams like ECU, so ignore their defensive numbers. They have allowed 260+ yards and two TDs to Tulsa, Houston, and UCF in their last three games. Hardy is the go-to threat for Carden and this ECU receiver and it’s clear they’re targeting him more in the last few weeks than earlier this season.

3. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma – If you’re not a big fan of Hardy then Shepard is your other high priced option here. He’s got a great matchup against Iowa State this weekend and is coming off the best game of his career. He caught 15 passes for 197 yards and one TD last week against Kansas State. Shepard has a TD in three straight games and has almost eclipsed 200+ yards in two of the last three. He’s a yardage machine even though a lot of his catches come close to the line of scrimmage. In five of seven games this season he has recorded 100+ yards.

4. Antwan Goodley, Baylor – The only thing that slows Goodley down this week is if his TDs get vultured. Otherwise, I don’t see how the number one receiver for Baylor doesn’t put up great numbers. He has come out hot since returning from injury recording a TD in three straight and 130+ yards in three of four games. Goodley has almost 71 fantasy points in his last two games. Kansas isn’t the worst passing defense in the NCAA, but they did just get beat up by Texas Tech. The Red Raiders threw for 288 and three TDs in their win two weeks ago.

5. Josh Doctson, TCU – I was completely expecting to talk about Deante’ Gray here, but it looks like Josh Doctson has come around and should be good for this game against West Virginia. Doctson is a much safer option than a guy like Gray, so this is great news. He has four TDs in his last two games and has been pretty consistent for 5-7 catches per game this season. TCU is rolling and with Doctson playing it should continue to. West Virginia has given up six passing TDs in their last three games.

6. Allen Lazard/D’Vario Montgomery, Iowa State – These two Iowa State receivers have clearly benefitted from more attempts from Richardson. If you think that continues then these tow have to be great safe plays. Oklahoma has also given up tons of yardage through the air in 2014, especially in the last four games. Lazard is the talented freshman who has back-to-back games of eight catches, 85+ yards, and one TD. Before that, he was pretty rough with his best games being in the three catches for 40-50 yards.

Montgomery has been good for about the same production in the two games as Lazard, but for just a bit more. He had nine catches in each with 190 total yards. Before these recent two great games, he had catches in just two other games (OK State and Baylor in the two previous weeks).

7. Deontay Greenberry, Houston – Entering the 2014 season, Greenberry was one of the best receivers in college football. He’s sliping and his talent is off and on, but he has benefitted from Ward Jr. at quarterback. He has 15 catches for 142 yards and one TD since Ward Jr. got the start. Now, he gets a very nice matchup against South Florida and a price range that is very nice. With his quarterback being a nice play, you have to think his talented top receiver is one as well.

8. Cam Worthy, East Carolina – I talked about how below average Temple’s defense really is, so there’s no reason to harp on it. Worthy’s offensive talents and chemistry with Carden has almost made him the second receiver in this offense. He gets a ton of targets in this offense and went for a huge game last weekend. He caught seven passes for 138 yards against UConn last week. He has had some off the field issues this season, but it doesn’t seem to have slowed him down now that he’s back.

LATE WIDE RECEIVERS

1. William Fuller, Notre Dame – I’ve been a big fan of Fuller for a while now, so I got to keep it going. He’s been great for Notre Dame and Stanford is the only recent team to have stopped him. He had huge games against Syracuse and UNC going for 13/252/4 against them, but also had a nice game against FSU on primetime television. He went for 8/79/1 in that one. Fuller gets to face Navy Saturday, a team that shouldn’t be able to keep up with him or this offense at all.

2. Rashard Higgins, Colorado State – There isn’t much reasoning needed here with the way Higgins has been in 2014. He has 31+ fantasy points in four straight games with highs of 50 and 44 this season. Most recently he’s been super hot catching 31 passes for over 170 yards in each game in the last four. He also has eight TDs during that stretch. I know SJSU’s defense has been great statistically, but they haven’t faced anyone like Higgins this season.

3. Antonio Vaughan, ODU – So, Vaughan has been inconsistent at times this season, but it’s really been directly caused by Heinicke’s inconsistencies. When his QB at his best, Vaughan is not surprisingly unstoppable. He has games of 6/220/2 and 7/105/2 in the last four weeks. While he has dud potential if this offense gets stopped, you won’t find many players with potential like him this weekend.

4. Ty Montgomery, Stanford – I couldn’t rank only guys with tons of fantasy points lately here although Montgomery has put up his fair share of points recently. He is a special teams TD threat each week and has been very good about catching 6-7 balls for 70 yards or so. He hasn’t scored through the air in four games, so you know he’s due here against Oregon. This running game is so brutal that they’re going to have to get Montgomery going here to get them a win against Oregon this weekend.

5. Cayleb Jones, Arizona – Jones has gone from unknown receiver to star of the Wildcats receiver group. He has been super consistent for them totaling seven catches or more in four of the last five games. He has six TDs during that stretch with two games of 100+ yards. While Solomon spreads the ball around enough to keep him from being a consistent 100+ yard guy, Jones always has the potential for multiple TDs. Against Cal and Nevada, he totaled 22 catches, 302 yards, and five TDs. Those games came in back-to-back weeks early on in the season.

EARLY TIGHT ENDS

1. David Grinnage, NC State – Brissett has struggled for a little bit of time, but is picking it back up lately. He’s doing it with the help of Grinnage. Grinnage has three TDs in his last two games and gets to go against Syracuse. The Orangemen gave up a big game to Nick O’Leary who went for 8/97/1 against them earlier in the season.

2. EJ Bibbs, Iowa State – Bibbs has been unconsciously good lately and has turned himself into one of the top producing tight ends in the NCAA right now. He has 21 catches for 175 yards and five TDs in his last three games. Now, he gets another great matchup, which I’ve talked about too many times now. Bibbs isn’t the tight end I’d roll with due to price, but he should be a great play for those who have confidence in their value elsewhere.

3. Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech – There are no real minimum play options to be excited about other than Grinnage, so I’m going with a high potential guy with lots of athleticism. Hodges has 13 carries in his last four games and even has some carries around the goal line. Hodges was a former quarterback for the Hokies and finds himself in shotgun formation at times.

LATE TIGHT ENDS

1. Pharaoh Brown, Oregon – If you want a piece of this Oregon offense without paying a nice chunk of change then Brown is your guy. This receiving tight end has three TDs in his last three games to go along with ten catches. He’s been one of Mraiota’s best targets lately, so I would expect him to keep looking his way 3-5 times a game.

2. Billy Freeman, San Jose State – Freeman is a minimum price guy with potential. At the tight end position it’s very hard to pick these guys out, but I think Freeman is the one to own in week ten. He is coming off a nice 5/45/1 game against Navy last weekend and hopefully his quarterback keeps looking his way. He also had a 6/76/0 game in week five against Nevada.

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