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College Football DFS Week 11

College Football DFS Week 11
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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After a few less entertaining and wacky weeks of college football, we get a bunch of great games to view in week 11. The night games are packed with potential and if you don’t own four TVs by 8pm Saturday then you’re likely going to miss something. What you’re not going to miss when reading this article though are the top plays. Once again, I have discussed 40+ players in this article reaching just under 4,400 words. I have also included four lineups (like usual) so you can see how my lineup construction for GPP games are this week. Good luck to all of us this weekend!

EARLY QUARTERBACKS

1. Dane Evans, Tulsa – Who? Mr. Evans is the quarterback for Tulsa and has been pretty consistent on the season. He has 34+ attempts in seven of eight games on the season and for the most part isn’t a threat on the ground. While that last part is a negative for us, Evans is facing the worst passing defense he’ll face on the season. And, their rushing game is really bad, so taking advantage of SMU’s weak run defense shouldn’t be too much of an issue. While I think a roster or two with their running back is smart, Evans is the play. He has a stud receiver in Keevan Lucas and their team in general should keep this game close and Evans passing.

2. Sam B. Richardson, Iowa State – Richardson gets another great matchup for him and with affordable prices everywhere. He’s starting to really click with his receivers and although he struggled in his last game, he still threw 40 times and put up 20 fantasy points. Being out of the game from the beginning kills competitive nature, so I love the fact that this game should be close or leaning towards a nice Iowa State win. Richardson has a TD:INT ratio of 9:2 in his last four games and that includes three Big 12 teams. He also has 10+ rushing attempts in three straight games. His potential is pretty high with this matchup and I’m hoping for a repeat of what Texas Tech and Baylor did, which was over 600 yards and six TDs total.

3. Taylor Kelly, Arizona State – Kelly has struggled a little since his return a few weeks ago, but has continued to run the ball and has even passed more than before his injury. This is a huge matchup for Kelly and Arizona State as this could catapult them into the top ten and Vegas has them as early favorites. Notre Dame’s pass defense has struggled in recent weeks to FSU, UNC, and Syracuse. They also gave up two TDs through the air to Navy. With Kelly’s potential, I have no problem taking a little risk by using him.

4. Nick Marshall, Auburn – If Marshall wasn’t priced so high on all of the sites, he’d easily make a top 2-3 quarterback. He has been a much better passer this season and has continued his running ways. He has eight rushing TDs in his last four games and gets a brutal Texas A&M defense. The Aggies passing defense isn’t that bad in terms of yardage or TDs allowed, but they have given up 15 rushing TDs in their last five games. Alabama’s Blake Sims had a monster game against this defense and Marshall not only gets more opportunities to run, but is a better runner than him. If you can afford him then Marshall is definitely a great option.

5. Luke Falk, Washington State – When Connor Halliday went down last weekend, we saw a great Mike Leach passer go down. We also saw an opportunity to have value at the quarterback position. Falk is that guy and because he hasn’t put up weeks of Halliday type numbers, he’s at an affordable price. Against USC, a good matchup, he threw for 370 yards and two TDs. Now he gets Oregon State, a tough top 40 passing defense when it comes to yardage. These stats seem to be skewed as Portland State and Utah combined for just 145 passing yards. If you take out those games, Oregon State averages 245 yards per game and puts them in the 80s in terms of passing defense. Oregon State is about a TD favorite and with that being the case, Washington State should continue their passing ways and Falk will greatly benefit.

6. Everett Golson, Notre Dame – Golson had a monster day last week against Navy putting up six total TDs and over 300 passing yards. Against Arizona State that is unlikely to happen again, but he could see another three TD game at the very least. Arizona State has been great in their last two games against the pass, but that was against teams with struggling quarterbacks (Washington and Utah). UCLA, USC, and even Colorado had big yardage games against this Sun Devils’ defense. While the Fighting Irish has gotten the run game going more in recent weeks, Golson still has been a part of 29 of 36 offensive TDs in 2014.

7. Jacoby Brissett, NC State – Brissett has struggled ever since a hot start to the season, but has some potential against Georgia Tech. This is a risky play for sure, but if you want some variance at a cheap play then look at Brissett. He has thrown 30+ times in three straight games and has 29 total rushes as well. His passing numbers have been down, but Georgia Tech could be a good matchup for him. They have given up 390, 328, and 262 passing yards in their last three games. If Michael Brewer can throw for almost 300 yards against Georgia Tech then so can Brissett.

8. Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech – The other quarterback in this one is Thomas and I like him for different reasons than Brissett. He has played pretty well recently and that’s with some average at best running games. He has seven passing TDs in his last three games and another TD as well on the ground. I think against NC State you could see him finally get back to over 100 yards rushing. Kevin Ellison from Georgia Southern ran for 116 yards on 20 carries in the first game of the season against the Wolfpack. Thomas has three 100+ rushing yard games on the season, so it’s certainly possible but his price will likely make him a risky player unless used in GPPs.

LATE QUARTERBACKS

1. Anu Solomon, Arizona – I ranked Solomon last weekend and fell on my face for it. He posted one of his worst games of the season, but I have confidence in him! He gets to face Colorado and their incredibly bad pass defense. Two times this season Colorado has given up seven TDs. While their recent numbers have been good, they did face a weak passing team in Washington last weekend and gave up their third worst yards per attempt of the season in that game. In Solomon’s best matchups he has been a complete beast. Against UNLV, Cal, Washington State, and USC, he has put up 109 of his 180.34 total fantasy points.

2. Cole Weeks, Southern Miss – Weeks has filled in nicely for Nick Mullens since his injury and if he continues to start then he’s a great option. He has thrown for over 300 yards in two straight games and even though he only has two TD passes he always has potential for more. When you pass 45 times a game for over 300 yards you have to imagine one of these days a receiver breaks free for him. The two teams he has faced have been top 50 pass defenses, so a top 25 defense in Marshall isn’t much different for Weeks.

3. Joe Gray, San Jose State – Gray gets a great matchup that was beat up more at the beginning of the season, but that was also because of matchups. Fresno State has given up 23 TDs to just four INTs in 2014. Since becoming the starter for SJSU, Gray has put up 11, 22, 38, 27, and 29 fantasy points. He has become very stable and consistent especially considering his usage. Gray has thrown 45+ times in the last three games and because of it he has a 7:3 TD to INT ratio.

4. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State – Barrett was limited but effective in his last two games because of a knee injury. Now, he gets a big matchup against Michigan State, but I feel should still be able to put up some numbers on the ground as well as through the air. Before that knee injury, Barrett had thrown for 17 TDs in the previous four games. Last season against an even better MSU defense, Braxton Miller ran for 142 yards and two TDs. Barrett isn’t as good of a runner as Braxton, but he is still very effective. He has just under 500 rushing yards and six TDs as well. This is a total GPP play as his price is kind of high, but for him it’s a cheap price.

5. Will Gardner, Louisville – Last Thursday, Gardner got vultured by some nice Michael Dyer runs, but I don’t think that happens this weekend. Boston College poses as one of the best run defenses the Cardinals will face this season. Now, Gardner gets to show off his talents after a nice 330 yard game. DeVante Parker is red hot since returning from injury and a viable ground game should keep Boston college from putting everyone back in coverage. While I think the run game gets stopped, I think they’ll run enough to keep Boston College honest and let Gardner air it out some.

EARLY RUNNINGBACKS

1. Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn – CAP hasn’t been a huge name in DFS CFB, but it’s not because of yardage. He’s averaging 121 yards per game this season, but only has two TDs in his last four weeks. While I love Nick Marshall against Texas A&M, this game could get wide open enough where they hold off on too many Marshall carries around the end zone. Texas A&M has given up 15 rushing TDs in their last five games and should get beat up on the ground in this one. CAP is my clear number one play this weekend with a matchup like this.

2. Tarean Folston, Notre Dame – Folston has apparently won the running back battle and he’s made it known recently. He has rushed 18, 21, and 20 times in his last three games compared to a high of 12 before those three games. In his last three games he has rushed for three TDs and 367 yards. Folston has even added seven catches. Arizona State has given up a ton of yardage on the ground this season giving up 200+ in four straight weeks in the beginning of the season and 335 yards in the last two games. I’m a big fan of Folston where he can put up 100 yards, three catches and one TD and hit value.

3. Nick Chubb, Georgia – This is the final week of Chubb’s fantasy relevance as Todd Gurley is back next week and I fully plan on taking advantage of him. He’s been lights out for Georgia rushing for 502 yards on 89 carries. He has caught ten passes and has five total TDs during those three starts. There is a chance Sony Michel comes back from an injury, but I can’t imagine him taking many carries from Chubb, but instead Douglas. Kentucky is really bad against the running giving up tons of yardage to the respectable SEC teams. Against Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, and Missouri, the Wildcats gave up 1,304 yards. That’s an average of 260 yards per game.

4. Synjyn Days, Georgia Tech – In The Fifth Quarter, I talked about Days’ potential and he should continue his production this weekend. NC State struggled against this offense when they faced Georgia Southern, which bodes nicely for Days. He has run 22+ times in his two starts and ran for 257 total yards and one TD. With Laskey out indefinitely, Days will continue to get starts.

5. David Cobb, Minnesota – Cobb has been a very productive running back for the Gophers in 2014. He has rushed for over 100 yards in four of the last five games and has three TDs in the last two games. Cobb will be fresh coming into this game as he had a bye week and should be back to 25-30 carries in this one. Iowa has had some good games against rushing attacks, but has struggled recently. Against Indiana, they gave up 316 yards and three TDs on just 39 carries. Against Maryland, they gave up 212 yards and three TDs. Against a similar running back like James Conner, Iowa gave up 155 yards and 29 carries to him.

6. Zack Langer, Tulsa – Langer is a guy I’m warming up to due to price and usage in recent games. While his yards per carry have been pretty bad in the last three games, he has still gotten 76 carries in those games. He did rush for 100+ yards in two of those games. Now, Langer gets a matchup against SMU that is very nice. While I think Evans does most the damage for Tulsa, it would be stupid to ignore SMU’s terribleness against the run. They give up 5.49 yards per carry and have allowed 22 rushing TDs on the season. They’re 0-7 for a reason.

7. Wisconsin Running Backs – Both Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement are great plays in this game against the Purdue this weekend. They’ve allowed 20 rushing TDs on the season with 13 of those coming in the last five games. Gordon has put up 425 yards and nine TDs in the last three games while Clement has put up 385 yards and four TDs. Even though Clement has had no more than 17 carries in a game, he’s still averaging 87 yards per game. Both of these guys are great options coming into the Purdue game and if they fit the lineup then feel safe plugging them in.

8. Drake Johnson, Michigan –Drake Johnson has come out of nowhere to have a great game against Indiana last week. While, the offense has struggled and there’s no resolution on the running back situation in Ann Arbor at this point, Johnson had a huge game last week and should give himself a shot at starting against Northwestern. The Wildcats have given up 220+ yards in back-to-back games and a juicy eight TDs. Keep an eye on this situation as the week progresses and plug in if he is announced the starter.

LATE RUNNINGBACKS

1. Devon Johnson, Marshall – Devon Johnson is an absolute beast and there’s no way around it. The guy has turned Marshall into a running team! Rakeem Cato has been great, but everyone is talking about Johnson and his 1,203 yards on 137 carries. He has a TD in every game this season for a total of 19. Now, he gets to face Southern Miss who allows just under five yards per carry and has given up 19 rushing TDs on the season. There’s no need to dive into this one more. Play Johnson if you can afford it.

2. Jay Ajayi, Boise State – Ajayi is the workhorse for Boise State, but probably won’t need many carries to tear apart this New Mexico defense. He has seven TDs in his last three games to go along with 428 yards. Ajayi has six games of 30+ fantasy points and three games of 40 fantasy points or more. New Mexico is the third worst rushing defense in the NCAA allowing 26 rushing TDs on the season to go along with a 5.88 yard per carry average.

3. Tyler Ervin, San Jose State – Ervin has been pretty good in his last three games scoring two TDs, catching 13 passes and putting up 317 rushing yards. If you’re not a fan of Gray then you should certainly be a fan of Ervin. Fresno State’s run defense has given up 17 rushing TDs on the season and a 4.88 yard per carry average. In their last two games they’ve been miserably bad giving up 638 rushing yards to Boise State and Wyoming. Ervin also returns kickoffs and some punts to provide more value for him.

4. Devontae Booker, Utah – Booker hasn’t been that effective in recent weeks, but gets an above average matchup at home against Oregon Saturday. Booker has five straight games of 100+ rushing yards and has carried the ball 32+ times in three of the last four games. I love that kind of usage especially considering he is a PPR threat as well. Oregon has given up big games on the ground to UCLA, Arizona, and Cal, giving up 729 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs to them.

5. Matt Jones, Florida – Jones is a pretty affordable starting running back and is coming off his best game in 2014. With Florida putting Treon Harris at quarterback it really seems like they’re going to run first and not let Harris make any mistakes. Vanderbilt has given up a yards per carry average of 4.85 or worse in four of their last six games. I have a feeling that once Jones gets going he’s going to get a lot of the carries contrary to what his game log would suggest.

EARLY WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Keevan Lucas, Tulsa – Lucas has put up for 100+ yards in four straight games and has 75 catches on the season. In those four games he has three TDs. Against SMU, Lucas should be primed for a great game. While you’ll likely have to pay up a decent amount for him, I don’t see how he doesn’t go for 8/100/1 in this one at the very worst. Lucas has big game potential like his 13/233/3 game against Tulane in week one or his 11/160/1 game against South Florida two games ago.

2. Antwan Goodley, Baylor – I have no idea how Goodley wasn’t great against Kansas, but I can’t let that one bad game discourage me. Before that two-catch game, he went for 21 catches, 259 yards, and four TDs in the three previous games. Goodley is the main target in this offense and I will continue to roster him at these kinds of prices. Now, Baylor gets a terrible Oklahoma pass defense to get him back on track. West Virginia, TCU, and Texas all threw for over 300 yards against this defense.

3. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State – Strong has struggled with Kelly at quarterback, but that’s likely more because of Kelly. Strong is an unbelievable talent that should excel with anyone under center, so I have faith in him this week. He’s at a good price and has six TDs in his last four games. This game against Notre Dame should be higher scoring and if Arizona State scores four times then Strong has to be a part of at least one of those TDs.

4. Victor Bolden, Oregon State – We were all waiting on Bolden to have another huge game and we got it last weekend. He caught 11 passes for 119 yards in that one. He posted those exact numbers week two against Hawaii, but also with a TD. Bolden gets another great matchup against Washington State this weekend. The Cougars have given up 26 TDs to two INTs this season. The Cougars have given up 18 of those TDs in the last four games. They’ve given up 280+ yards in six of nine games this season. Bolden also has 17 rushes on the season, which is added potential for him in this game.

5. Mario Alford, West Virginia – Alford’s price has dropped on DraftKings and I can’t imagine a bad worst case scenario out of him. He has put up a TD in three straight games and has 13 or more fantasy points in every game but one this season. He had a bad game against Texas Tech, but has bounced back nicely since then. I do think Texas has a great defense, but at this price and usage I really like him. He has 48 catches on the season and has averaged 75 yards per game in 2014. Kevin White has struggled in recent games and if that continues Alford will benefit more.

6. Deshon Foxx, Connecticut – Foxx is a really interesting guy this weekend as I would consider him more because of his potential running the football then receiving it. In his last game, he ran 11 times for 102 yards and one TD as the option QB for the Huskies. This weekend against Army he gets a good matchup against a bottom half rushing defense. Now, Foxx has been effective through the air in some games like against Boise State (6/107/0) and just two games ago against East Carolina (4/120/1), so he does have receiving potential as well.

7. Keyarris Garrett, Tulsa – Garrett is the Tulsa guy you want to look to if you don’t feel like spending up on Lucas. He won’t give you the crazy stat line like Lucas, but he will give you 5-6 catches and a chance at good yardage. In six games this season, he has four games of at least five catches. In every game though, he has more than 50 receiving yards. For his price and his matchup, he’s a great play. As I’ve already stated SMU can get beat bad by anyone in the passing game, so if you want to stay away from a riskier play like Foxx then Garrett is your guy.

8. Allen Lazard/D’Vario Montgomery, Iowa State – The Cyclones receivers are back and this time with lower prices on DraftKings. Montgomery caught the TD pass and had three catches for 88 yards while Lazard had five catches for 51 yards. I still like both and honestly there are reasons to like both. Kansas has given up a six to one TD to INT ratio in the last two games and over 600 passing yards. Now, Iowa State isn’t the same passing attack as Texas Tech or Baylor, but those two teams threw for a total of 80 times against Kansas. Iowa State on the other hand hasn’t thrown it less than 45 times in three straight games.

LATE WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Nelson Spruce, Colorado – Spruce finally got back on track last weekend against Washington with a 13-catch game. While he didn’t catch a TD, he did record 138 receiving yards. This is nice to see after games of 6/63/0 and 6/35/0. Arizona is one of the ten worst passing defenses in the country according to passing yardage allowed and Colorado is going to pass it enough to get Spruce big numbers. Spruce is the same guy that caught ten TDs in the first five games on 56 catches.

2. DeVante Parker, Louisville – I wasn’t a huge fan of Parker last season, but boy has he turned it up in 2014. In just two games he hasn’t caught a TD, but he has 17 catches for 346 yards. Against Florida State last Thursday he had 214 receiving yards. Against Boston College you have to imagine he can put up 8-10 catches and over 100 yards easily. I talked about BC’s great run defense, so I won’t repeat but one thing. Gardner is going to get challenged and if you like him then you must love Parker, his top receiver.

3. Cayleb Jones, Arizona – Solomon is my top quarterback so of course I have to rank Cayleb Jones on here. He has had some mild games lately recording a stat line of 18/191/2 in his last three games, but I think he could explode against Colorado. With the potential blowup from the Colorado defense you would be crazy not to roster him when rostering Solomon.

4. Shane Williams-Rhodes, Boise State – Williams-Rhodes has done very well in recent games recording four games in a row with a TD. He has 22 catches in those four games and for a mid-range receiver that’s not bad at all. Against New Mexico he has a lot of potential for rushing yards as well. While he hasn’t run it often, I can see Boise State getting him another carry like he has gotten in every game but two this season. SWR has runs of 23, 33, and 49 on the season.

5. Jordan Payton, UCLA – I’ve discussed Payton’s lack of upside in the past, but in this game against Washington for his price, he doesn’t have to do much to crush his value. He is coming off back-to-back games with TDs and has four in his last four games. Payton has also caught 5+ passes in six straight games, so consistency is there as well. He is Hundley’s top target, so when he does throw there are going to be a lot of targets headed his way.

EARLY TIGHT ENDS

1. Blake Bell, Oklahoma – Bell is coming off his best game of the season caught two TD passes last week against Iowa State. He has three TDs in his last two games on only seven catches. He seems to be used sparingly in the passing game, but if Sterling Shepard sits this game out against Baylor, I wonder if his playing time increases. Either way, for his low price this is a no risk play as tight ends are incredibly difficult this weekend.

2. Ben Koyack, Notre Dame – Koyack is another low priced guy who also caught a TD last game. He had a nice 5/54/1 game against Navy and that’s likely because of William Fuller having a down game. That could certainly happen again Saturday against Arizona State, but I do like Golson. Koyack has a catch in every game this season and aveages 29 yards per game.

LATE TIGHT ENDS

1. Deon-Tay McManus, Marshall – McManus could be in for another big game if Davonte Allen sits out again. There is correlation between those two and he’s been a consistent player for Marshall for the most part. He has 2+ catches in four straight games and in two of them he caught a TD. Look for McManus to build on his 4/110/0 game against FAU last time out.

2. Nick O’Leary, Florida State – O’Leary is the other tight end I’d look at without praying for a minimum priced guy. He has been great for Jameis Winston in 2014 catching 33 passes, three TDs, and averaging 52 yards per game. O’Leary has caught 17 passes for 186 yards and one TD in his last three games.

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