Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 11 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? Lance Kendricks. Dead to me. It was another week of hot fiya value plays + the DR projections crushing it yet again, but still not getting the top plays down pat. Rodgers crushed for us last week, but Mike Evans was a massive disappointment, while both DJ and Le’Veon likely carried teams to a big win. The Eagles are probably the most frustrating team to deal with DFS wise, as they just don’t understand what we degens go through trying to figure out their RB situation. Screw them! The Rams decided to finally start Jared Goff, the Packers picked up their future franchise RB in Christine Michael, and the Bears lost Alshon Jeffery for the next 4 games. There’s going to be even more value plays to choose from this week, and as always, I will use both my infinite wisdom and the DailyRoto projections to make smart, informed picks. Well, I use a dartboard too, but that’s beside the point. Save us Le’Veon!
WEEK 11 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – With TNF having two of the best QB plays of the week, our options are a little limited this week if paying up at QB. There’s Big Ben vs Cleveland, ranked 30th worst against opposing QBs, but Ben just hasn’t looked the same since returning from injury. Steele’s could also simply rely on Le’Veon and win via rush attack. Mariota has been lighting it up lately, and he’ll get a still paltry Colts pass defense that’s giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but I’m liking the other QB in that matchup. Andrew Luck may be facing the tougher defense in comparison, but with the return of both Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief, Luck’s been playing like an All Pro QB. The Titans pass defense has been crumbling over the last couple weeks, giving up 371 passing/3 total TDs to Aaron Rodgers last week. It’s brought down their pass defense DVOA ranking all the way to 26th worst. Luck at home has seen an uptick in pace, no huddle percentage, and offensive snaps as compared to their road games. The Colts clearly feel much more comfortable at home, and it’s shown with Luck’s stats at home, with two of his three 300+ passing yards games in the dome. With an implied team total of 27.5 points, I feel comfortable rostering Luck as my expensive QB over Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Let’s stay lucky!
Value Play – Bear with me here. Just….take a deep breath and relax. Are you relaxed yet? Because the QB value play is definitely a doozy. It’s….Blake Bortles! PLEASE DON’T HURT ME! He’s facing a veritable disaster of a pass defense in the Detroit Lions, and still will be near the league worst even with Darius Slay slated to come back this week. Bortles may be….well, Bortles-like, but he’s still a stat-padding machine and somehow seems to stay relevant in DFS. He threw for 265 yards and 2 TDs/1 pick against the Texans on 49 pass attempts. In fact, over the last 4 games, Bortles has attempted an astonishing 187 passes! That’s an average of well over 40+ pass attempts per game! Obviously, they’re all not going to be perfect, accurate passes on the merits of dissecting the opposing defenses and hitting the right read or the open guy, but the volume’s clearly there. The Jaguars are still pretty pass happy despite the new OC change, and that trend will continue against a Lions pass defense that’s ranked dead last DVOA despite having a bye week. They’re giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and that’s a big reason why Bortles is projected as a great value on the DR Big Board. Put your big boy pants on and roster Borty, taking a shot every time his pass hits incomplete near his intended WR’s feet.
BOLD CALL – It’s strange to put Russell Wilson here as a BOLD CALL but Bortles as a value play. That’s just the NFL for you, as Bortles gets a dream matchup + has the volume to succeed, while Wilson faces a tough challenge against the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush but burnable secondary. Wilson and the Seahawks have adopted a much more pass happy script over the past month, even opting to use their rookie RB C.J. Prosise over former Seahawks and ex-starter Christine Michael, as Prosise is more of a receiving back that gives Wilson another target in the pass game. Wilson torched the Pats on SNF, lighting them up for 348 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s clearly back from the ankle injury he suffered versus the Dolphins, and due to his terrible OL (ranked dead last in run blocking), Wilson has ramped up his pass attempts. It’s been a winning gameplan, as evidenced by their win over the AFC stalwart Patriots. The Eagles may be giving up the 3rd fewest offensive plays in the NFL, but that’s mostly due to their grinding run offense with their 3 headed monster at RB. Seattle’s defense is very stingy against the run (ranked 2nd best DVOA), so it’s likely the Eagles will have to pass it much more against Seattle. The Seahawks D may be imposing, but it’s still surprisingly giving up 70+ plays over the past month and currently rank at 5th most snaps given up, leading to a sneakily good fantasy matchup for Wilson (provided his OL holds up in pass protection). The Eagles are only giving up the 6th fewest points to QBs, but with their boundary cornerbacks starting to slip in the grades, it’s a low owned percentage play with some good upside behind it. Even Ciara can’t mess with Wilson.
Top Play – The DR team absolutely loves Le’Veon Bell this week, projecting him at their highest projected points so far this season, with an absurd 30.68 points!