Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 14 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? Well, we got back on track last week with most of the plays hitting value on a fantasy week where even a choking Tyrod Taylor was still an effective QB for the price. Yes, Breesus Christ was not resurrected and left us all for dead. It happens. It’s called the 2ToN curse, so get used to it. David Johnson also exploded yet again and gets another tasty match-up against my poor Dolphins. When will the Dolphins abuse stop?
As we inch along towards the playoffs, more and more player injuries start to mount, while some teams may be preparing to sit players due to clinching a playoff spot or resting a marquee player in a lost season. The Cowboys clinched a spot, but aren’t quite at the sitting players stage just yet. The Falcons are now dealing with a Julio Jones turf toe. The Bucs may have Charles Sims back that further muddies their RB situation. The Browns might actually win a game with the return of RG3. What a whirlwind of injuries! It’s time to try and predict the unpredictable sport of NFL for that million dollar win. Spin the DailyRoto Big Board!
WEEK 14 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – With the Buccaneers playing much better defense over the past month, going back to back with Brees isn’t as delightful as I had once thought. Instead, Russell Wilson will be looking to carry his team’s offensive explosion against the Panthers into the suddenly important Packers game. The Packers’ defense somehow made Brock Osweiler look decent enough (202 yards and 2 TDs) despite the snow and bad field conditions. Sure, they’re only giving up the 15th most points to opposing QBs, but that’s mostly due to the opposing receivers tearing them a new one more than the QBs. Russell Wilson doesn’t really have a go-to guy, as he likes to spread it around and really stretch a defense. Their 500+ offensive yards gained versus the Panthers may be a sign of things to come, especially after losing Earl Thomas for the season. Wilson and the offense will be leaned on heavily by the Seahawks (running 11th most snaps over the past month) as they push for a 1st round bye in the playoffs, and facing the 22nd ranked DVOA pass defense certainly will help their efforts. Facing a tough run defense (7th DVOA) and having been forced to throw more often over the past four games, Wilson has a nice floor and ceiling against the Packers, and running some Wilson-only lineups may be the best option as Jimmy Graham is the only guy I’d say is a lock for targets and yards.
Value Play – If Dalton had a healthy A.J. Green playing against the Browns, he’d probably get the value play spot. I’ll go ahead and give the afro his shot at being the Tyrod Taylor value play of the week. Yes, that would be Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco Bums. He had a horrible, horrible day against the Bears last week, with only an inexplicable 5 pass attempts and only 20 rushing yards (He completed 1 of those 5 pass attempts if you were wondering). Kaepernick gets an easier match-up that isn’t in blizzard conditions as he’ll be facing the dilapidated Jets that just got their asses kicked up and down the field by the Dwayne Allen Colts. The Jets’ entire defense seemed to give up from the very 1st snap, looking confused and out of sync throughout the entire game. That’s good news for Kap and the fastest paced 49ers offense. The Jets’ pass defense DVOA has now plummeted to dead last in the NFL, and they just announced Bryce Petty as the team’s QB for the final 4 games. Petty is not a good QB and likely provides even more snaps for Kap’s offense. Here’s the real reason why Kap is a great value play despite some concerns of a shaky, ineffective offensive group. His legs. The dude can run and he does run A LOT. Ignoring the Bears disaster, Kaepernick’s gained 223 yards rushing with a rushing touchdown over his past four games combined. That’s kept Kap’s floor a stable one, as the 49ers still run many read options and Kap’s been forced to scramble often. Facing a depressed and discouraged defense that just became dead last in passing defensive ranks seems like a great recipe for the afro to reign supreme. All in on Kap!
BOLD CALL – I haven’t mentioned Eli Manning in a long time, and looking at both his price and ownership percentages over the past month, it seems like most of you haven’t cared about him either. Well, that tune better change this week as he gets to face the Cowboys in primetime with a playoff spot on the line. Manning’s been very methodical and boring over the past few games, not even hitting the 200 yard mark for two games in a row. The only thing that’s kept Manning afloat – as far as fantasy relevance goes – is his high amount of touchdowns thrown. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns over the last 5 games despite only cracking 250+ passing yards just once. Manning will get the 27th ranked DVOA pass defense that’s giving up 10th most fantasy points to the position. The Cowboys are the league’s slowest paced team and their defense is only giving up the 6th fewest plays per game. That’s the reason why Manning is a BOLD CALL despite his high touchdown numbers. The Giants are still running the highest percentage of no huddles with the 2nd highest pace and they’re still throwing it a ton in the redzone. His price is just way too low to ignore even with a lackluster Manning season and a gamescript that may not favor him as the game winds down. Primetime! Odell Beckham! 14 touchdowns in last 5! Cheap price! Eli sad face!
Top Play – David Johnson. The Dolphins stink at stopping the run due to very poor linebacker play. Kiko Alonso is battling hammy issues along with a broken thumb that he recently had surgery on. Miami’s only hope of containing DJ is to continue chewing the clock and running at a snail pace. The Cardinals average the most offensive snaps per game, riding the coattails of their 3rd overall ranked defense DVOA (3rd vs pass and 11th vs run). The Dolphins likely still won’t have All-Pro center, Mike Pouncey, lessening their effectiveness on offense. The Dolphins have no one who can cover David Johnson and I’m already crying as I type this up. Bless us O’ Great Football Gods and give Miami a playoff berth! Also, DJ has now gained 30+ points in three straight games (PPR). Soon to be four…