Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 4 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? GOOD GOLLY MISS MARVIN JONES!!! The deadly duo of Stafford’s arm power and Marvin Jones’ perfect imitation of Calvin Johnson has been unstoppable thus far and that trend should continue as they both get to pick apart a depleted Chicago Bears defense. Most of you guys were disappointed in the Chargers’ offense against the Colts, but they get another chance to stuff our pockets with sweet, delicious money as they face off against the Saints, easily the worst defense in the NFL. And then of course, we get to roster Le’Veon Bell happily as he returns from his 3 game suspension and promptly puts up a 27/205/3 rushing line on 7/119/1 receiving. Foreshadowing? Perhaps, but only one way to find out. You’ll have to put on your reading glasses and chug down that nasty beer you got in your hand. Nasty. As always, DailyRoto has some purty slick lookin’ tools for the NFL premium customers, including a brand new Redzone Production tool! Hooray!
Top Play – Shall we delve into the Philip Rivers well again? I do sayeth, yes, yes, yes! The Saints defense is laughably bad, getting their ankles broken by Devonta Freeman repeatedly, while giving Matt Ryan all day to tear them apart with only 1 freakin’ catch to Julio Jones. [sociallocker]Ryan posted a line of 20/30 for 240 and 2 TDs despite nothing from Julio Jones and a team rushing total of 217 yards!!! It’s unlikely the Chargers can get similar production from their rushing attack, as they only really have one reliable RB in Melvin Gordon and a pure pass catching RB in McCluster. That likely opens up more passing attempts for Mr. Rivers, and the last QB who actually passed against the Saints collected 368 passing yards, completing 32 of 41 passes and no touchdowns (because Odell can’t catch). That man was Eli Manning, and if ELIte can keep it together for a big day despite the lack of touchdowns, so can Rivers. I see an efficient day for Rivers as he cruises to victory with a couple of TD passes to probably the 4th string WR to piss us off.
Value Play – The DR team is in love with Kirk Cousins once again, currently projected as the 3rd best value + the 3rd most points. I will look somewhere else though and go with the Brockness Monster. Brock Osweiler faces off against a mediocre Titans passing defense that’s yet to show they can stop the passing attack themselves. Why do I say themselves? Derek Carr could have had a much bigger day had the team not committed stupid penalties or if his WRs actually could hold on to the ball. Either way, the Titans’ secondary still grades out as a bottom 10 unit and the Texans do have one guy that’s consistently torched the Titans in Deandre Hopkins. Nuk’s last 4 games against the Titans reads as the following with targets in parenthesis – 7/117/1 (11), 8/94/1 (11), 9/238/2 (9) and 5/95/0 (11). Um, that’s kinda good. I know Brock looked absolutely awful against the Pats, but let’s be honest with ourselves. You don’t bet against Bill Belichick on a short week, even if the Pats are using their 3rd string QB. Osweiler should have a great bounce back game against a soft defense and the Brock/Nuk connection should be a beautiful sight to see.
BOLD CALL – The Steelers just let a rookie QB in Carson Wentz tear them a new one to the tune of 23/31 for 301 yards and 2 TDs. Wentz in the Philly O has been mostly quick, high percentage throws with some dump-offs and the occasional nice intermediate throw. Does that sound familiar? If you said “Yeah, sounds like that lame guy in KC”, you’re absolutely right! Alex Smith is the king of short passing and still somehow throwing it 30-40 times a game for that one week of fantasy gold. That just might be this week as he faces a Steelers secondary still trying to find an identity amidst the changes from the offseason. Smith already has two games where he completed 70% of his passes with some touchdowns and if it wasn’t for a horrible game against the Texans, Smith would probably be on the DFS radar of most against the Steelers. There’s a chance Jamaal Charles makes his return as well, but even if he doesn’t, Smith still should enjoy a potentially high scoring game with the game script favoring a 40+ pass attempt day.
Top Play – There will be many choices to pick from for the top spot here, outside of the obvious Melvin Gordon matchup against the Saints and their fantastic run defense that gave up 217 rushing to the Falcons. Do you go with the massive upside and guaranteed workload of Le’Veon Bell, currently projected for the most points, or go with CJ Anderson despite his 5 point performance against the Bengals? I mean, he does face a TB defense that just gave up 37 points to the LA Rams, behind Gurley’s 2 TDs. THE RAMS!!!
Nah, let’s keep picking on the poor 49ers, who continue to give opposing teams a buttload of offensive snaps, with the Panthers totaling 78 snaps and the Seahawks 70 snaps! The 9ers’ anemic offense – coupled with Chip Kelly’s persistence in employing his fast paced no huddle offense (despite the clear lack of personnel required to actually make it work) – has allowed opposing teams to just do whatever the hell they want against a gassed 9ers defense that just can’t get any rest. The Cowboys are currently one of the slowest teams in the NFL, but they do one thing very well despite the snail like pace – they feed their running backs. And the man who gets to eat breakfast, lunch, and dinner is Ezekiel Elliot, coming off a 30 carry day for 140 yards against the Bears. 30 carries! Christine Michael had a 20 points in the 1st quarter against the 49ers’ run defense, then basically took the rest of the game off. That likely won’t happen considering the Cowboys’ safe offensive approach with Dak at the helm. They’ll likely look to continue feeding Zeke as much as possible and that’s the kind of workload I adore. Give me all the Zeke!!!
Value Play – This is a tough one for me as I don’t really see any value RB plays that makes me want to roster them at a high rate like Melvin Gordon was last week (44% owned in GPP? Crazy). Tevin plays the Panthers, the Lions can’t run, and everyone else that was great last week face top 10 run defenses this week. Brutal. Oh yeah, you could go with Cameron Artis-Payne, but the Panthers really hate all of their running backs outside of Stewart. I guess I can go with Jordan Howard, who just became an every down back with the Jeremy Langford injury. Howard has looked impressive over the last 2 weeks with his carries, breaking off some nice looking long runs and proving the draft hype was indeed for real. Howard also picked up 4 catches for 47 yards on 6 targets against the Cowboys, so he’s not dependent on rushing yards/TDs. He gets a tough test against a Lions run defense that currently give up the 8th fewest fantasy points to the RB position. But in a game that should provide the Bears with plenty of snaps to give to Howard, he should shatter his price tags on DK/FD. Howard is the 2nd best value play at RB for DK, and the 4th best value on FD.
BOLD CALL – Screw it, I ain’t scurred of the Denver defense! Charles Sims is the bold call here, despite facing the 11th best defense in terms of DVOA. The Broncos are clearly an elite pass defense, with a 6th overall pass defense, but rank 30th in DVOA against the run. They’re also 21st in fantasy points given up to RBs and considering Sims’ biggest value is as a pass receiver, he should get the majority of his points through the air on checkdowns as the Bucs struggle to pass on the elite Broncos secondary. The Broncos aren’t as deadly of a run defense as in years past, as evidenced by Jeremy Hill’s 17 carries for 97 yards and two touchdowns against last week. Sims received 8 targets for a 6/68 receiving line against the Rams and it’s very likely that could happen again with the chance at a decent rushing day. Start him!
Top Play – Start Antonio Brown! Wait actually, don’t. He’ll still get his, but his matchup isn’t the best one as Marcus Peters has evolved back into his top 10 form from last season, thanks to his spectacular play over the past few weeks. Instead, let’s look at the matchup of T.Y. Hilton against the Jaguars. Old man Steve Smith put up a 8/87 stat line on 11 targets against the Jags and Travis Benjamin was able to finish with a monstrous 6/115/2 line the week before. Hilton has now seen 34 total targets, good for 4th most in the NFL, as well as a ridiculous 28% market share of the team targets. It’s clear Andrew Luck wants to go to Hilton as much as possible and with Moncrief likely out again, Hilton should have yet another 10+ target day against a still struggling Jags secondary. I mean, Hilton did just put up 174 yards last week, including the game winning 63 yard touchdown. The guy’s a stud and has a super studly QB throwing to him against a not-so-studly defense. What more do you want? OK, he’s also projected for the 3rd/4th most fantasy points on DK/FD as well. There.
Value Play – Boy, this is even tougher than the value RB play but for completely different reasons. There are some fantastic matchups for the lower priced receivers, including another potential PryorCat game from Terrelle Pryor. Both SD WRs are still priced low enough to hit 3x their value, while Jamison Crowder gets a coma-inducing cheeseburger of a matchup against the Browns that just surrendered a 7/120/1 line to the greatest slot receiver in the NFL (that would be Jarvis Landry, if you didn’t realize who that was). I’m gonna go even further down the value list and go with Kevin White, coming off a 14 target game with Alshon not at 100%. Whether or not Hoyer suits up, the fact remains that Kevin White is going to get more targets as the season progresses along, especially if Jeffery continues to nurse his foot injuries. The Lions’ secondary has been mediocre, despite having a top flight cornerback in Darius Slay, and just gave up 4 passing TDs to Aaron Rodgers, including a 6/101/2 stat line to Jordy Nelson. White should be able to easily hit value at his bargain basement price regardless of who’s throwing to him. It’s a great way to help stack your Le’Veon Bell lineups and still maintain some nice upside. Yeah, I’m reading your mind.
BOLD CALL – I’m gonna piggyback on Cam Newton’s quotes and put Kelvin Benjamin here. Newton said he refuses to allow another catchless game from Benjamin and I believe him. Despite likely facing shadow coverage from Desmond Trufant, who was able to shut down Brandin Cooks on MNF, Benjamin should still be able to corral some passes away from Trufant or whoever dares to cover the 6’5” behemoth. Benjamin did get 6 catches for 91 yards and a TD against an elite Broncos secondary with the TD coming against Chris Harris. In a game that’s likely high scoring with plenty of offensive snaps for both teams, the game script favors the Panthers’ passing attack against a team that’s been pretty lethargic in drumming up QB pressures. Ride on Super Cam’s back and let him reward you with 50 targets to Kelvin! OK, more like 11 targets.
WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS | DST PROJECTIONS | K PROJECTIONS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – With Gronko still limited and only getting 14 snaps last week, we face yet another week of looking elsewhere at TE or simply punting the damn thing again. Reed has another favorable matchup but I’m not falling for it thrice. I’m going with Dexter’s doppelganger in Gregory Olsen, facing an ATL team that revived the Coby Fleener hype by letting the Fleen gather 7 catches for 109 yards and a TD. Fleener still had his usual “OH GOD WHY FLEENER WHYYYYY” moments during the game, so for him to just brutally destroy the Falcons while still being a donk is a huge positive for Olsen. The Falcons are 31st against opposing TEs in terms of fantasy output and that will likely drop to 32nd once Gregory gets a long seam TD. Panthers stack? Yes, please.
Value Play – The Lions stink at covering TEs – period. Zach Miller just put on a clinic against the Cowboys, including two TD grabs. Seems obvious, no? Yeah, too damn obvious. Let’s pivot off Miller and check out the other TE in that game in Eric Ebron. The Lions suck at running and Stafford is still as pass happy as ever, so it should be to no one’s surprise that Ebron is thriving as a legitimate top 10 TE for the season. He received 8 lovely passes from Stafford and turned them into a 6/69 stat line. Sure, the Bears are currently giving up the 6th fewest points to TEs, but that was before the numerous Bears injuries, including their best coverage LB in Trevathan. Witten was as close as you could be at a TD catch, then was unfortunately relegated to a blocking role once La’el Collins went down due to injury. Ebron can’t block, so there’s no worries of that happening to him. Ebron’s received 20 targets through 3 games, good for 8th most among TEs, with a solid 17% market share of the team’s targets. We all know you love yourself some Marvin Jones, but don’t ignore the other Lions in that matchup!
BOLD CALL – Watch out, Saint Jimmy’s coming your way! Jimmy Graham broke out in a big way against the 49ers, hauling in 100 yards and a TD on 6 catches (9 targets). Graham played on only 47 of the 70 offensive snaps, but it was a blowout early thanks to both Graham and Michael’s performances. Jimmy gets the 21st ranked defense against TEs in the Jets, who continue to put Calvin Pryor up against tight ends. That’s not been a very smart thing thus far as Travis Kelce took Pyror to the woodshed with a 6/89/1 stat line. There are some health concerns with Russell Wilson likely not at 100%, which makes Graham a shaky pick for now, but damn it, I don’t care! Saint Jimmy’s coming the Jets way and he’s gonna start a brand new TE revolution! That’s his name and you better not wear it out!
And so ends another dazzling piece by yours truly, full of gold nuggets and thigh slappers, but remember one thing. I died on Tanny’s hill along with Dink’s awful puns and I still survived. The DR team has some legit premium tools with a wonderful customizable excel whatever thingy for projections that I’ll never use. Check it out anyways.[/sociallocker]