Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 6 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? So, yeah. The Dolphins are awful. I only received a mere flesh wound on Tanny’s Hill instead of getting decapitated and dragged across the field, much like what the Titans did to the poor Dolphins. 235 rushing yards? What is this, a game of Madden 17 on Pro difficulty? And now they have to face the bloody Steelers? BLOODY HELL! The return of HAM CAM NEWTON will be a welcome sight for all the Panthers fans who got their hearts ripped out by a 2nd round kicker who still can’t really kick field goals. He’ll get one of the tastiest matchups for the week as he faces off against a Saints defense that ranks 6th worst DVOA in pass defense and are giving up an astonishing 7.9 yards per pass! That game should be extremely explosive and a great opportunity to stack both teams in DFS. I’m gonna fade it. I have balls of steel, do you? I THOUGHT NOT. I had some pretty terrible picks and some gorgeous picks last week, so it’s up to you to decide which hot sizzle flaming nuclear bomb taeks will be the golden goose or fool’s gold. Pretty exciting!
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – Big Ben should be able to carve up the half dead Dolphins, especially if Reshad Jones is unable to participate. He’s on the road though, and Le’Veon Bell could probably win it by himself. The guy should play QB to be honest, and give Big Ben a well-deserved break from throwing so many TDs lately. Let’s look elsewhere and check out Mr. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady. He’s coming off a very impressive, almost nonchalant 400 yard day against the Browns, where he lovingly embraced his bountiful skill players at tight end with 3 TD passes to Marty B and a 5/109 day for Gronko. Yes, it was the Browns, but Brady reminded us he’s still Giselle’s hubby and wears Uggs for fun. Oh, and I guess completing 70% of his passes too. Brady gets to beat up the 26th graded Bengals pass defense (17th DVOA) that currently gives up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. And that’s even after giving up 134 rushing yards to Elliot on only 15 carries! The Patriots were able to run 77 total plays against the Browns and last season they were near the top in both tempo and pace, so that trend should continue with Brady back at the helm. It’s a home game and Brady is still pretty angry at the NFL (mostly Roger Goodell I’d imagine), so another 400 yard day definitely is not out of the realm of possibility. Deflate those balls, Thomas!
Value Play – The last time Alex Smith appeared as a pick, he showed up with a 30/50 for 287 yards and 2 TDs/1 pick. Yes, it was super garbage timey and he literally got a TD right at the end. It’s a win in my book, so deal with it. Alex Smith will face off against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs! DR currently ranks Alex Smith as the 3rd best value on DK and 2nd on FanDuel, and I’m inclined to agree with them. The Chiefs are coming off a bye and presumably will have a 100% Jamaal Charles at their disposal. That’s a gigantic boon to Smith’s fantasy ceiling and increases his floor as well. The Raiders are still struggling to contain opposing receivers, ranking 25th and 26th worst against #1 and #2 WRs, respectively. And let’s not forget about the big man himself, Travis Kelce. The Raiders are 24th DVOA against tight ends, and give up the 5th most fantasy points to the TE. Yum. What more do you want? Some KC BBQ? Sure, just roster Smith and order some with your DFS winnings after he drops 500 passing yards on the Raiders! Ok, more like 300 yards.
BOLD CALL – IT’S WILDKAP TIME!!!! The 49ers have finally decided that Gabbert is actually really awful, and have given the reins of their woeful offense to the wondrously afro’d up Colin Kaepernick. Let’s toss out some numbers to make the Kap pick a viable one. The 49ers, despite having an inept QB and being unable to utilize Kelly’s scheme to the fullest, currently run the 15th most plays in the NFL. That’s after a 74 play outing last week against the Cards on TNF! They’re still one of the fastest pacing teams with a defense that’s still giving opposing offenses 68 plays, good for 5th worst. The biggest negative with Gabbert was his inability to push the ball deep and being able to convert 3rd and somethings. While Kaepernick may not be the most accurate QB, the combination of his legs and throwing power should flourish in Kelly’s read option offense. Kaepernick has always been a great runner with the ball, and having a QB who can actually throw it past 10 yards will surely ignite their icy offense. Facing against the 15th DVOA Bills pass defense that’s 3rd stingiest in giving up points to opposing QBs will be a rough start for Kap, but his rushing total should help hit value at his low price and still offer some limited upside even in a bad matchup. Legs, don’t fail me now!
Top Play – I’m not sure whether or not to call this a top play or a bold call considering Lamar Miller’s struggles as of late, coming off a putrid 8 carry 20 yards effort against an admittedly top ranked Vikings defense…[sociallocker] Miller hasn’t cracked 100 yards since his Week 1 game against the Bears, and even then, it took Miller 28 carries to get it. Still, the workload is what we’re looking for here, and he gets the best matchup against the Colts, who just allowed a 16/118 rushing and 3/45/1 receiving line to Jordan Howard! That’s tantalizing, and it’s not even a fluke occurrence. The Colts have consistently been gashed by opposing RBs, both through the ground and the air. Miller’s price has plummeted over the weeks, and people are likely off him in favor of better RBs with similar workloads in Bell and DeMarco, so it’s a good chance to pick up a potentially elite fantasy matchup at a lower ownership percentage. I still believe in Lamar, and so should you!
Value Play – With the start over Jeremy Hill last week, Gio Bernard seems poised for a huge fantasy day soon, and it might be sooner than you think. The Patriots are PFF’s 3rd best graded run defense, and the DVOA numbers back it up, ranking the Pats as the 8th best run defense. The Bengals may still be without Eifert, as he’s yet to practice, and AJ Green just popped up on the injury report with a calf issue. The Patriots may be stingy against running backs, but have been getting gashed by receiving backs. LeSean McCoy gobbled up 6 catches for 38 yards and a TD. Miller easily could have had a 10 catch day if not for Osweiler’s brain farts, and even Jay Ajayi got a 4/31 receiving line against them! Isn’t that the point of rostering Bernard, hoping for another 6 target 6 catch day? With the lack of true value RBs at the 5k or under price, I love Bernard in this spot. You can always go with the chalk in Devonta Freeman against yet another tough defense, considering his workload and great performance against the Broncos defense.
BOLD CALL – Please get a paper bag before you read the following bold call. Ryan Mathews. Yes, I know the Eagles are infuriating with their ridiculous RB rotation and unpredictable touches for their stable of RBs. Here’s the thing, despite the frustrating usage of Mathews, he’s still producing points. In the end, that’s all that matters, right? Wendell Smallwood received 0 touches last week, and Mathews got the most carries out of all of their RBs. He was even involved in the passing game with a receiving TD. Good signs. The Eagles have the 7th highest run rate with the fewest pass attempts of all NFL teams. Yeah, they did have a bye, but still. The Deadskins are still pretty bad at stopping the run, ranking dead last in run defense DVOA. That’s dreadful. The Eagles are the slowest paced offense in the NFL, and will probably still continue that trend against the Skins, so they’ll keep on chugging with their RB train. It’s all about the matchup! I am prepared for a 8 carry 55 yard day with 2/25 receiving. Sob.
Top Play – Antonio Brown is 10k on DK? Whew. Guess we should look elsewhere, huh? T.Y. Hilton historically scorches the Texans on the road, and it is a primetime game. Hilton is also coming off a massive 10/171/1 performance against the Bears. And he’s still priced at 7,700 on DK? Huh? Oh, the Texans are the 5th stingiest defense in giving up FP to WRs? They’ve been pretty tough on opposing WRs, but they do have one weakness. Their slot cornerback. The Texans are currently 29th worst DVOA against slot receivers, giving up an average of 7/78 a game! Kareem Jackson plays over 70% of his snaps in the slot, and the Texans don’t employ any shadow coverages, so Hilton will be Jackson the majority of the time. Hilton runs almost 60% of his routes at slot, and with the rise of the Colts’ usage of no huddle, it’s been one of the biggest reasons for Hilton’s sudden emergence as an elite WR. Hilton’s now seen 10+ targets in every game thus far, owning a massive 28% market share! He’s also leading the team in RZ targets at 8, and while he’s only converted 1 of those into a TD, the opportunity’s clearly there. As long as the Colts remain on a high pace and continue increasing their no huddle percentage, the ceiling on Hilton is sky high, no matter the matchup. At his price point, that’s the top play to me.
Value Play – This week has a ton of value at WR, with plenty of great matchups for each. It’s a difficult pool to choose the best one as they’re all price friendly with potential to be target hogs, like Cameron Meredith, Sammie Coates, and Quincy Enunwa with Patrick Peterson likely shadowing Marshall all game. I keep glancing over the other side of that game though, with the Jets having just been slaughtered by Big Ben & Co. The Jets are still a pretty tough team to run consistently on, but have been the absolute worst pass defense in the NFL. I mean, when #GOATES literally drops 3 TDs and still finishes with a 6/139/2 day, you know it’s bad. John Brown’s snaps have continued to increase over the last couple weeks, all the way to 94% of the snaps and becoming the new starter over Michael Floyd. Of course, that was with Drew Stanton at QB, which basically rendered his snaps useless. Still, his last game with Palmer ended up in a 10/144 receiving day, and Palmer did just get cleared. The Jets are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing receivers, and that should continue with a Cardinals team looking to get Palmer back on track and likely passing more on a tough run defense team – plus the team’s loss of Evan Mathis to IR. Downtown, Smokey, whatever you wanna call Johnny Brown, he’s a great value with the perfect matchup to put up eye popping numbers. DR loves him on DK.
BOLD CALL – Not so much of a bold call, but rather a gentle reminder that you shouldn’t forget about Marvin Jones. The Rams just lost Trumaine Johnson to an ankle injury for a couple weeks, and right now their cornerbacks consists of EJ Gaines, Troy Hill, and Dwayne Gratz. There’s Joyner as well, but he mostly plays in the nickel. The Lions were uncharacteristically slower paced with only 1 no huddle snap against the Eagles, when the Lions were no huddling on 46% of their snaps. They’re still the 3rd highest on no huddle snap percentage, so last week’s game was probably an outlier against an Eagles team predicated on ball control and slow tempo. The Rams are giving up the 3rd most plays to opposing offenses, and that’s just great news for the Stafford/Jones connection. The DR team agrees with me (a 1st). You know it’s a damn good play if they agree with me.
Top Play – Man, there are so many good TE matchups this week, and you actually could probably roster 2 TEs and feel okay about it. Olsen vs NO is the obvious choice after his monstrous 9/181 day against the Bucs, but the Saints aren’t really that bad against opposing TEs, giving up the 11th fewest FP and ranked 15th DVOA versus TEs. Gronko gets a better matchup against Cincy’s 18th/16th defense against TEs, respectively. Plus, he’s Gronk! However, I’m going to move away from the top 2 TEs and go with Delanie Walker against the defense giving up the most FP to opposing TEs. Is it a reactionary move to Marty B’s 3 TD day? Absolutely, and it’s also because Mariota continues to hook up with Delanie early and often, trusting his elite TE in making the big play on any pass. Walker torched the Fins defense for a 5/66/1 stat line on 8 targets and could have been much more if not for a few drops. The Browns are starting to become Lions-bad at covering tight ends, and at a price point well below Olsen/Gronk, it’s a nice way to fit in an elite play without overpaying and hurting your overall roster.
Value Play – With the Sammy Watkins injury depleting the Bills’ WR corps, Charles Clay has been relied upon heavily by Tyrod Taylor, seeing 12 targets in the last 2 games and coming up with some very solid numbers. Clay’s starting to get loose on his routes, resulting in bigger chunks on his catches, and it’s been one of the reasons why the Bills aren’t that bad…..yet. He’ll face the 22nd worst defense in giving up points to TEs, and that number could have been much worse if the Cardinals had any TEs to pass to (or didn’t start Stanton). Again, the 49ers defense is giving up the 5th most snaps and won’t have NaVarro Bowman roaming the field. It’s a nice matchup at an even nicer price, as the targets should still be there as the only consistent weapon for Tyrod to throw to. Clay’s currently being pegged as a very nice value TE on the projections. Another one we agree on!
BOLD CALL – All right, Lance Kendricks was an atrocious call. Sorry. Here’s a better one: Jacob Tamme against the Seahawks. Yeah, the Seahawks are giving up the 3rd fewest FP to tight ends, and they’re coming off a bye. Yeah, Tamme’s slowed down in recent weeks after his hot start. He also got 1 target last week. Yeah, so what? The Seahawks are always a top defense, but for whatever reason always get gashed by TEs randomly every now and then. They’re 12th DVOA against tight ends, and Ryan is likely to check down more in a tough matchup, not being able to rely on the heroics of Julio Jones. It’s a bold call for a reason, damn it! I could just put Jesse James here and be done with it. Goodbye.
I have done my job. It is now up to you to ponder upon the very existence of your life and how it pertains to playing DFS. Gloss over the incoherent ramblings of an angry 4000 pound man and ask yourself this one important question: Do I trust this man to save my fantasy lineups? Yes, yes you should.
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE