Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? It seems that Mr. Brady is still steamed at the NFL and took out his anger on the Bengals to the tune of 376 passing yards and 3 TDs. He’ll get the Steelers next game, who are reeling after a tough loss to the Dolphins. They also lost their marquee QB Ben Roethlisberger to a torn meniscus. Of course, it’s Big Ben so unless he got his leg amputated, he’s probably back within the next couple weeks instead of a month or two. In other news, the 49ers are really bad and the Eagles hate Ryan Mathews. The Colts are shockingly inept at managing games, much like the Chargers have been for most of the season, and Brees at home is as close to a guaranteed +EV play as anyone in the NFL. Too bad he’s on the road this week, so we will have to pick Ryan Tannehill in his stead. Yes, that’s a joke. Calm down. Here’s to hoping I can nail the elusive quadruple hit on all the Top Plays below. I can feel it in my bones this week.
WEEK 7 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – If the Steelers were with Big Ben, I’d probably roster Brady in this spot, but that game will likely be a laugher with the Pats running more than usual. Sure, Brady and the Pats love running up the score and being assholes in general, but I don’t see a 400 yard day. We’ll pivot to Matt Ryan, coming off an impressive outing against the always tough Seattle defense. He put up eye-popping numbers in the 2nd half, proving that he’s not a one trick pony and that the Falcons can scheme with the best of them. Ryan gets the 9th ranked DVOA Chargers pass defense, but that number’s a little skewed. The Chargers had a healthy Jason Verrett shadowing opposing teams’ #1 receivers, but a torn ACL ended his season a few weeks ago. Then they had a TNF game against Siemian, who was….well, not good. San Diego is currently giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and their run defense is ranked 21st DVOA. That’s great news for Ryan’s run offense, opening up their bread and butter play actions and bootlegs. Ryan dissected the Seattle secondary for 335 yards and 3 TDs, with 252 yards in the 2nd half alone! Both teams are in the top 10 at giving up plays to opposing defenses, with the Chargers coming in at 5th most and Falcons at 8th most. Sounds like a shootout to me. Chargers also love abandoning their run offense when they’re behind, so there’s little concern that the game script for SD might resemble the one from the Broncos game, where the Chargers sucked the soul out of the Broncos defense/TNF viewers with long, grinding drives. Crank up those Ryan/Julio stacks baby!
Value Play – Looking at the prices and matchups for most of the mid/low tier QBs, Week 7 will be a strong week for that particular group. You have Alex Smith in an enticing matchup once again, but they’ll probably be run heavy in an effort to keep Brees on the bench. Dalton gets the Browns, but he’s Dalton and looks like one of the kids in those Children Of The Corn movies. Tyrod Taylor should hit value at his low price against the Dolphins, who just lost arguably their best defensive player in Reshad Jones to IR. His upside is limited due to the team’s preference in being run heavy and playing smart ball, so not the best value play. Kirk Cousins gets the 32nd ranked pass defense Detroit Lions, who just gave up 321 passing and 3 touchdowns to Case Keenum. KEENUM!!!! That also included allowing Keenum to complete 20 straight passes! The narrative that Cousins struggles on the road compared to away doesn’t seem to be the case this year, as his 2 road games have seen Cousins faring quite well, including passing for 296 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants. There is a worry that the Skins may decide to run more and keep utilizing clock management in their favor against the explosive Lions offense, ranking the 9th slowest paced team in the NFL. The Skins also only average the 23rd most plays. So despite the Lions’ inability to stop opposing QBs (most FP given up), so there is some inherent risk in rostering Cousins. The value and the matchup is just too good to pass up, and if Keenum can complete 20 straight with guys like Kenny Britt and Lance Kendricks, I am fine with a mere 250/3 TD performance from Cousins. If Reed can return this week, all the better.
BOLD CALL – Blake Bortles’ season has been really disappointing after a promising 35 TD sophomore season. He’s been wildly inconsistent and pretty much gets the majority of his points at the end of games during the 4th quarter. So while Bortles has a nice matchup against Oakland (currently giving up the 28th most FP to opposing QBs with a 28th ranked DVOA pass defense), he can still muck around and end up with a lackluster day. Still, I believe Bortles will show up against the Raiders and show them who’s the boss, behind the heroics of his WR duo, the Allen’s. The Jags are one of the least efficient running teams with a putrid run blocking OL and they’re heavily dependent on their pass attack to gain any traction. DR seems to like Bortles a little bit. I mean, Bortles is gonna pass all over the place when they’re down by 50 at halftime. Easy points.
Top Play – Let’s keep picking on the poor Indy defense, having just given up yet another top 5 RB performance to Lamar Miller, yielding 178 total yards and 2 TDs. DeMarco Murray is the next man up to get his best performance of the season against the Colts, except Murray’s actually been really, really good…