I thought this was going to be an epic weekend – not for me, but for one of my pals. Instead a bunch of guys that I didn’t want to do good things did good things. Heartbreaking, I know. You probably aren’t heartbroken if you’re any of the people below. Enjoy your winnings.
WEEKLY PROJECTIONS | DST PROJECTIONS | K PROJECTIONS | TARGETS | CARRIES | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
$800K Blitz, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, TJ Yeldon, Marvin Jones Jr., Jarvis Landry, Tajae Sharpe, Greg Olsen, Stefon Diggs, Broncos
$4.4M Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1,000,000 to First Place
Winners: papagates, cmo_22wesley
Teams: Matt Stafford, LeSean McCoy, Shane Vereen, Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones Jr, Terelle Pryor, Zach Miller, TY Hilton, Seahawks and Aaron Rodgers, DeMarco Murray, Charles Sims, Jarvis Landry, Jordy Nelson, Allen Robinson, Hunter Henry, Terelle Pryor, Cheifs
$300K Flea Flicker, $5 Entry, $15,000 to First Place
Team: Matt Stafford, LeSean McCoy, Shane Vereen, Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones Jr, Terelle Pryor, Zach Miller, TY Hilton, Seahawks
$600K Monster, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Ryan Tannehill, DeMarco Murray, Ezekiel Elliot, Jarvis Landry, Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones JR, Jimmy Graham, Justin Tucker, Dolphins
$2M Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $200,000 to First
Team: Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, Jordy Nelson, Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Gary Barnidge, Dan Bailey, Chiefs
$1M NFL Sling TV Rush, $5 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Sterling Shepard, Jimmy Graham, Mason Crosby, Chiefs
After two straight weeks of rather minimal quarterback usage in the top-20 lineups of the signature GPPs, how did the top-20 lineups diversify at QB this week?
- Quarterbacks Used: 7 – Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck
- Change from last week: Four more quarterbacks used.
- High Ownership: 12.4% (Ryan Tannehill)
- Low Ownership: 1.2% (Carson Wentz)
- Difference in High and Low Score: 16.48 (Jameis Winston – Russell Wilson)
- Quarterbacks Used: 7 – Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Stafford, Blake Bortles
- Change from last week: Six more quarterbacks used
- High Ownership: 12.7% (Ryan Tannehill)
- Low Ownership: 1.8% (Jameis Winston/Russell Wilson)
- Difference in High and Low Score: 13.48 (Matt Stafford – Russell Wilson)
LORD THIS WORKED OUT SO WELL. After whining through the first two weeks of the season, I finally got the gold mine I was hoping for. Last season I spent the whole year harping on my hypothesis that because quarterbacks warrant a smaller spectrum of scoring they carry a less significant weight in GPPs, yet through the first two weeks of the season that hypothesis looked so lost. Of course, this is just one week – but the numbers speak for themselves. Thanks to the explosion of points from skill players (WR and RBs) it hardly mattered who you had slinging the ball on your fantasy team. Seven quarterbacks were found in the top-20 lineups of each of the signature GPPs on FanDuel and DraftKings. Further proof of their “lack of high significance” (how else do I put it lightly?) is the difference in high and low scores from quarterbacks that found themselves in the top-20 lineups. Surely with high scoring days from skill positions, quarterbacks (who are tied to points from other skill positions) must have also performed. That is correct, even “bad” quarterback performances made it into the top-20. In particular I’m looking at Russell Wilson who was found on both sites despite scoring 14.02 points. IT AIN’T ABOUT YOUR QB, BRUH! QUARTERBACK, SCHMAUTERBACK!
How Low(ned) Will You Go?
Using data from the top-20 lineups from the Sunday Million on FanDuel and the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, I’ve found the percentage of players that fell in a particular ownership range this week.
***For the sake of simplicity, I removed the Kickers from FanDuel to focus on like players from both sites.
|Position||0-9.9% Owned||10-24.99% Owned||25%+ Owned|
|QB||85% (17)||15% (3)||–|
|RB||42.5% (17)||45% (18)||12.5% (5)|
|WR||40% (24)||30% (18)||30% (18)|
|TE||80% (16)||20% (4)||–|
|D/ST||95% (19)||5% (1)||–|
|Position||0-9.9% Owned||10-24.99% Owned||25%+ Owned|
|QB||80% (16)||20% (4)||–|
|RB||7.5% (3)||85% (34)||7.5% (3)|
|WR||35% (21)||48.33% (29)||16.67% (10)|
|TE||90% (18)||10% (2)||–|
|Flex||70% (14)||30% (6)||–|
One thing that has definitely stood out to me on both sites is the embracing of value among top lineups in GPPs. “How contrarian do I need to be to win, or finish high in a large field GPP?” Well according to the data, not that contrarian. Particularly at RB on both sites, the top finishers appeared to embrace the abundance of value that was available, neglecting ownership in favor of opportunity and production. Make note that it’s not always about finding a needle in a haystack when it comes to GPPs. I particularly think that so long as the RB value is as readily available as it is, this is how GPP ownership data will fall in line.
Where’d They Skimp?
We’ve heard all the talk about paying at RB and skimping at WR, but did it stand true this week? Judge for yourself.
|RB||7.5% (3)||57.5% (23)||22.5% (9)||12.5% (5)||–|
|WR||1.67% (1)||25% (15)||38.3% (23)||21.7% (13)||13.33% (8)|
|RB||5% (2)||20% (8)||27.5% (11)||27.5% (11)||20% (8)||–||–|
|WR||18.33% (11)||1.67% (1)||3.33% (2)||46.67% (28)||20% (12)||1.67% (1)||8.33% (5)|
Ok, Ok, Ok. After a week of being blinded by the light, or something, I’ve realized that this is an unfair comparison of spending on the two sites. Want to know why? They both rely on different salary structures and use different salary caps. BLSADFJASLKDFJ! That means I did a bunch of work for nothing using some data that was basically incomprehensible in regards to what I wanted to comprehend.
So, I created some new parameters, neutralized for the salary caps and instead wanted to show you what the top-20 lineups look like based on percent of the salary cap used.
Here we go again:
|RB||7.5% (3)||70% (28)||22.5% (9)||–|
|WR||1.67% (1)||51.67% (31)||33.33% (20)||13.33% (8)|
|RB||25% (10)||27.5% (11)||27.5% (11)||20% (8)||–|
|WR||20% (12)||26.67% (16)||38.33% (23)||5% (3)||10% (6)|
**All percentages are percent of the salary cap.
Again, these comparisons won’t be perfect. Due to the salary cap, pricing and positional requirements, it’s impossible to space out the thresholds perfectly, but I wanted to illustrate a fair, but comparable amount of space for each site. These aren’t perfect ranges and don’t fit the tables I provided earlier, but this might give you a better idea of how much of lineups are being spent on a particular position in the truest sense.