Julio Jones broke so many hearts last week after a dud performance against the atrocious New Orleans Saints defense. This week though, he found our good graces once again.
WEEKLY PROJECTIONS | DST PROJECTIONS | K PROJECTIONS | TARGETS | CARRIES | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
$1.25M Wildcat, $333 Entry, $250,000 to First Place
Team: Matt Ryan, Theo Riddick, Terrance West, Michael Crabtree, Julio Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Greg Olsen, Hunter Henry, Broncos
$4.4M Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1,000,000 to First Place
Teams: Matt Ryan, Isaiah Crowell, Ezekiel Elliot, Julio Jones, Terelle Pryor, Steve Smith, Jordan Reed, Eddie Royal, Cardinals
$1.25M Play-Action, $3 Entry, $50,000 to First Place
Team: Matt Ryan, Isaiah Crowell, Matt Jones, Michael Crabtree, Julio Jones, Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Theo Riddick, Steelers
$700K Monster, $300 Entry, $75,000 to First
Team: Matt Ryan, Le’Veon Bell, Joran Howard, Julio Jones, EmmanuelSanders, Cole Beasley, Jordan Reed, Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos
$1.75M Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $200,000 to First
Team: Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Julio Jones, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Reed, Nick Novak, Buffalo Bills
$1.1M NFL Sling TV Rush, $5 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Matt Ryan, Jordan Howard, Isaiah Crowell, Michael Crabtree, Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Greg Olsen, Justin Tucker, Seattle Seahawks
Quarterbacks galore last week, this week? Not so much.
- Quarterbacks Used: 4 – Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco
- Change from last week: Three less quarterbacks used.
- High Ownership: 19.5% (Cam Newton)
- Low Ownership: 1.2% (Matt Ryan)
- Difference in High and Low Score: 23.92 (Matt Ryan – Cam Newton)
- Quarterbacks Used: 3 – Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Brian Hoyer
- Change from last week: Four less quarterbacks used.
- High Ownership: 5.7% (Brian Hoyer)
- Low Ownership: 1.9% (Matt Ryan)
- Difference in High and Low Score: 16.74 (Matt Ryan – Brian Hoyer)
After celebrating the plethora of quarterbacks you might be surprised to find out that I’m actually pleased with the number that came in this week. I’ve re-linked it a billion times, but if you go back and check out the season chart from last year you’ll realize that 3-4 quarterbacks used on a particular site was usually a LOW week in terms of quarterback frequency among the top-20 lineups. So far this year, we’ve run into a few outstanding quarterback performances (not unlike last year) but the difference has been that these quarterbacks are separating themselves and dominating the top of GPPs. This week a few quarterbacks in particular (Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger) put on clinics and while they were each featured in the top-20 on both sites, we still found a few stragglers.
Of course, you might be saying, “well the stragglers didn’t win, who cares.” That’s true, the guy that used Brian Hoyer on FanDuel didn’t win the Sunday Million, but his finish inside the top-20 is the quintessence of this analysis. My hypothesis and last year’s analysis was to show that the quarterback position should not be treated like the be-all, end-all position that it is in ACTUAL FOOTBALL. In these tournaments they mean far less then they do on the field.
How Low(ned) Will You Go?
Using data from the top-20 lineups from the Sunday Million on FanDuel and the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, I’ve found the percentage of players that fell in a particular ownership range this week.
***For the sake of simplicity, I removed the Kickers from FanDuel to focus on like players from both sites.
|Position||0-9.9% Owned||10-24.99% Owned||25%+ Owned|
|RB||65% (26)||17.5% (7)||17.5% (7)|
|WR||38.33% (23)||46.67% (28)||15% (9)|
|TE||5% (1)||95% (19)||–|
|D/ST||65% (13)||35% (7)||–|
|Position||0-9.9% Owned||10-24.99% Owned||25%+ Owned|
|QB||90% (18)||10% (2)||–|
|RB||32.5% (13)||50% (20)||27.5% (7)|
|WR||66.67% (40)||23.33% (14)||10% (6)|
|TE||30% (6)||70% (14)||–|
|Flex||45% (9)||45% (9)||10% (2)|
|D/ST||60% (12)||40% (8)||–|
There weren’t many changes in any direction this week, but one thing in particular stood out to me – ownership spread out a bit from the middle of the pack (10-24.99%) embracing even more chalk, particularly at the running back position. Running back has been a deep trough full of value over the first four weeks of the season, so it’s no surprise that ownership has been condensed a bit but as you’ll see in the section below, it wasn’t even necessarily the value that was being exploited.
Soon I’m going to upload all the frequencies into a spreadsheet to make for easier navigation, but if you wish to check these against last week to see changes go here.
Where’d They Skimp?
After some early season rumblings about where people were spending in tournaments, I decided to take a look for myself. The link above will take you to last week’s results for this section as well, but as I mentioned soon I’ll be compiling them all in a spreadsheet.
|RB||12.5% (5)||10% (4)||40% (16)||20% (8)||17.5% (7)||–|
|WR||–||1.67% (1)||43.33% (26)||8.33% (5)||31.67% (19)||15% (9)|
|RB||32.5% (13)||30% (12)||10% (4)||17.5% (7)||10% (4)||–||–|
|WR||1.67% (1)||35% (21)||11.67% (7)||13.33% (8)||3.33% (2)||–||35% (21)|
What I meant in the section above about value not “being exploited” was particularly evident on FanDuel at the running back position. While Jordan Howard and Terrance West populated the lowest bit of the salary spectrum a heavy dosage of ownership was concentrated on players well above their price tags, stretching as high as Le’Veon Bell. This was an interesting contrast to DraftKings this week though, as DraftKings pricing was exploited at the bottom as 62.5% of the running backs found in the top-20 Milly Maker lineups were priced at $4,900 or below.
You’ll also notice this week that people were paying up at the top and it was connecting. With all the value that has been around in the first few weeks of the season, you’ve been able to grab hold to any player you’d like in tournaments but largely an exploitation of the upper-middle salary tier was the missing piece of the puzzle. This week thanks to an explosion from Julio Jones, you’ll see that the WR position on both sites was heavily owned by top salaried players.
This was a bit of a flip the script type week as the “pay for RB-skimp on WR” model that some have suggested was a new strategy in tournaments was far from the nuts.