Let’s get right into it, shall we? Here’s the Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Recap Week 5.
WEEKLY PROJECTIONS | DST PROJECTIONS | K PROJECTIONS | TARGETS | CARRIES | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
$1.35M Wildcat, $333 Entry, $250,000 to First Place
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard, Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Cameron Meredith, Will Tye, Sammie Coates, Bills
$5M Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1,000,000 to First Place
Team: Philip Rivers, Todd Gurley, Jordan Howard, Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Sammie Coates, Vikings
$1.35M Play Action, $3 Entry, $50,000 to First Place
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliot, Sammie Coates, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Jalen Richard, Vikings
$600K Monster, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Tom Brady, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Cameron Meredith, T.Y. Hilton, Jordan Matthews, Martellus Bennett, Adam Vinateri, Steelers
$1.5M Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $300,000 to First
Team: Derek Carr, Theo Riddick, Jordan Howard, Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Adam Vinateri, Vikings
$1M NFL Sling TV Rush, $5 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Philip rivers, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton, Sammie Coates, Martellus Bennett, Sebastian Janikowski, Patriots
The goal of this section? To derive the weight a quarterback carries relative to other positions in a GPP lineup.
Vague, Unscientific Hypothesis: Due to the range of outcomes for quarterbacks being smaller than that of other skill positions, the quarterback position will be less important than other positions in GPP lineups. Thus we should see a greater range of quarterback plays as compared to skill players among the top-20 lineups.
- Quarterbacks Used: 5 –Philip Rivers, Brian Hoyer, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger
- Change from last week: One more quarterback used.
- High Ownership: 16.3% (Ben Roethlisberger)
- Low Ownership: 3.8% (Brian Hoyer)
- Difference in High and Low Score: 6.42 (Ben Roethlisberger – Brian Hoyer)
- Quarterbacks Used: 5 – Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota
- Change from last week: Two more quarterbacks than last week.
- High Ownership: 15.3% (Ben Roethlisberger)
- Low Ownership: 0.7% (Marcus Mariota)
- Difference in High and Low Score: 8.32 (Marcus Mariota – Andrew Luck)
This is more like it!! One of the reasons this season has produced such strange results thus far has been the exceptional play of one or two particular quarterbacks on a given week, pushing their results so far ahead of the rest of the field that it’s difficult to find top-GPP lineups without them. While there were exceptional performances from quarterbacks once again this week, play was spread out enough that we saw a more “normal” distribution of quarterback usage. It would have been better to have Ben Roethlisberger, but you could have gotten away with a handful of guys this weekend.
Don’t Be a Me
Don’t worry, I’m not getting rid of the “How Low(ned) Will You Go” section of the GPP Recap, you just won’t see it here this week. Instead, I was inspired to post a new section that I’ve been thinking about and again heavily reminded of this week. If you have been following along with my other works, you’ll note that I’ve been doing this NFL GPP Paradigm Piece. In that piece, I use a bunch of different criteria to build a bunch of different GPP iterations each week and one of those criterion involves the usage of the “flex” position on DraftKings. We’re so caught up in the actual player selection each week that often we get lost on the subtle decisions we can make when filling out our lineups that give us a small edge or more flexibility over other players. One of those little quirks happens to be using the flex position “correctly” or making sure that the player we’re using in the flex spot on DraftKings comes from the last game or set of games that you have exposure to.
Well, by putting the later game players in your flex, you leave yourself more outs should you need to swap players. If Antonio Brown is your last player to play and is in your flex spot, you can swap him out with a WR, RB or a TE. If you simply have him in your WR spot, you’ll only be able to swap him with a WR.
See what I mean?
With the paradigm piece I’ve built a criterion using the flex position and have hamstrung my ability to swap players because the criteria often times requires I use an early player rather than my latest guy. Of course, Drew Dinkmeyer and the rest of the DailyRoto members who help with the piece yelled at me (with good reason).
I don’t want to feel bad about myself for much longer, so I wanted to see if others are truly taking advantage of this subtle, edge-providing move.
I checked the top-20 lineups in the Milly Maker.
Culprits – Roberto21, Rizzo_97, tonykamm, GE_Pats
FOUR PEOPLE! Four of the top-20 lineups on DraftKings did not utilize the Flex position correctly (given their final teams). One of the reasons I chose to focus on this particular tournament was because there is such a large swing of money involved with every place that you drop and having the flexibility to swap in more places at the end of the night can make such a big difference between a few more thousand or a million dollars.
PAY ATTENTION, FOLKS!
To Gronk or Not To Gronk…Sort Of
Last season I began doing this section to monitor how people were spending at tight end. Gronk was back this week, although notably off the radar given his injury situation but I’m still curious to see where people were spending. The leaderboards were dominated by Gronk’s teammate Martellus Bennett, but unlike a lot of the other sections that grace these recaps this one doesn’t focus so much on just the top of leaderboards. Instead I take a look at a handful of tight ends and how they compared to each other this week in regards to salary and ownership.
**Ownership percentages are from the Sunday Million on FD and the Milly Maker on DK.
|TE||DK Own%||DK Salary||FD Own%||FD Salary|
Again note that I’m not so concerned about how these particular players performed, but more or less how the field reacted to their salaries and if there are any noticeable trends in regards to the usage of certain salary buckets.
One thing that should certainly stand out is the ownership being flooded to cheap tight ends on DraftKings. With so many viable options below $4,000, it makes sense that players are taking chances and saving some cap for the top offensive players at other skill positions. Unfortunately, holding out for Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph didn’t work too well this week, but remember this is about identifying trends.