Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 1 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Top Play: Damian Lillard (POR) (best option from a raw total perspective at the position, but after leaving last night’s game early with abdominal pain and holding an increasing price tag, we’d prefer any exposure here to come in a tournament setting)
Next in line:
The two next in line point guard options are polar opposites from a player evaluation standpoint. John Wall (WAS) has performed very poorly this season (worst PER since his rookie season) and has a below average matchup. However, the price has plummeted, making him a strong industry wide bargain if you anticipate his baseline returning to career levels. Alternatively, Brandon Knight‘s (PHX) price tag risen aggressively, to the point where it’s probably at the peak price we’re willing to pay in cash games. Unlike Wall, Knight has been playing phenomenally (career best PER) and has a plus matchup (Brooklyn ranks 24th in defensive efficiency against backcourt players). We’d consider both cash viable as a result and would look to diversify based on price, even if it’s close.
Mike Conley (MEM) – Mike Conley is a strong mid-tier option across the industry. At first glance, he seems to take a hit with Zach Randolph back. Conley is averaging 3.9 more FanDuel points per game without Randolph versus with him. However, not all of that is actionable. Outside of an extra minute of playing time, the disparity is largely due to field goal percentage, and not a change in offensive role (usage, assist rates similar). As a result, we’re not automatically dismissing Conley simply because Randolph is back. Instead, we’re focusing on an extremely strong matchup against a Pelicans team that is dead last in defensive efficiency against points guards. Early in the season, that number was skewed by a couple of games against Stephen Curry, but even if we look at just the last 10 games (removes both games against Curry), the Pelicans are second last in this metric.