Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 16 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Top Plays: It’s a really interesting night in DFS. A lack of injury situations or price corrections on the ones that exist have resulted in a lack of clear values, particularly among the salary cap relief plays. This environment is lessened on FanDuel (looser pricing) but heightened on DraftKings. We’re usually pretty studs and duds heavy due to the inefficient pricing on many players in the $9-11k salary range. However, tonight may be a good night to take a more balanced approach, barring injury news opening up some values we aren’t currently seeing. The top plays at the point guard position, and good values in a vacuum, are Stephen Curry (GS) and Russell Westbrook (OKC). Curry plays in a game with a huge total (220), which isn’t surprising given the pace of these two teams (rank second and third in the league). He’s got phenomenal upside, but with a 12.5 point spread at home and no more streaks to chase, there’s definite blowout risk here. As a result, if choosing between the two in cash games, we’d rather use Westbrook, who will take on a Portland team just below average in defensive efficiency against point guards. The spread here is also wide (9.5), but we’re more confident in Westbrook’s minutes. On the stricter pricing DraftKings, despite how strong of a value Westbrook is (value threshold is 4.3 points below his average game), it might make sense to keep exposure to these two in tournaments. NOTE: With John Henson emerging as a value play at PF, it’s a little easier to pay up for one point guard.
Next in line: Damian Lillard (POR) (consistent high end option due to carrying the bulk of the team’s offensive responsibilities; he’s more valuable on FanDuel where the gap in pricing between him and Westbrook is larger)
Jeff Teague (ATL) – Let’s start off by addressing the elephant in the room – this game comes with blowout risk. The Hawks are 13.5 point home favorites over the Sixers. Looking back at their past matchups, the Hawks rested starters in two of them (we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it), played starters 25-28 minutes in a blowout win, and played starters 30-35 minutes in a close win. The latter two represent the dual outcomes we’re currently looking at, based on whether or not the game is a blowout. Personally, we’re willing to take that risk with one or two Hawks where the price is right. On Teague, a $6,300 price on DraftKings, which is right in line with the average cost of a roster spot, gives you some leeway. If the game is a blowout, his per minute production could still leave him approaching value thresholds. The Sixers are 23rd in defensive efficiency against point guards and 21st overall as a team. If the game stays close, you’ve got an excellent shot at turning a profit on Teague. The seemingly lack of opportunity cost (difficult to pay up, best matchups all carry blowout risk) makes it a bit easier to swallow the blowout risk, but we want you to be aware of it.