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12/17 NBA DFS: Ready to Launch the D-12

12/17 NBA DFS: Ready to Launch the D-12
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 17 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” andTheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Short Slate Disclaimer:

For those experiencing our content for the first time, the game-by-game preview format is used for short slates. Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into your results. We understand the excitement associated with the start of the NBA season, but we’d recommend approaching this slate with some caution. We recommend playing a smaller percentage than your typical night or sitting out the slate altogether. On a short slate, there are fewer errors for your opponents to make and thus less room for a skill advantage to come to fruition. 

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets

Line: Charlotte +1

Total: 196

Pace rankings: Toronto 25th, Charlotte 17th

Total team defensive efficiency: Toronto 11th, Charlotte 6th

Defensive efficiency ranks by position

Against point guards: Toronto 2nd, Charlotte 16th

Against shooting guards: Toronto 8th, Charlotte 5th

Against small forwards: Toronto 13th, Charlotte 20th

Against power forwards: Toronto 9th, Charlotte 11th

Against centers: Toronto 14th, Charlotte 24th

Rebounding rate rank: Toronto 8th, Charlotte 18th

Turnover ratio (from least to most): Toronto 11th, Charlotte 1st

Top Plays:

Kyle Lowry/DeMar DeRozan (TOR) – While Lowry and DeRozan carry the highest expected value of any player in this game, the overall context isn’t particularly appealing. Charlotte is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, and they don’t make mistakes with the ball (ranked first in turnover ratio). This game has the lowest total in this slate (196 points), and neither team plays at an above normal pace. With no real discount in their price tags and a difficult context, Lowry and DeRozan are better options in tournament games this evening.

Value Plays:

Jeremy Lin/Jeremy Lamb (CHA) – Nicolas Batum left last night’s game with an illness and he didn’t return. If Batum is unable to suit up tonight, expect Lin and Lamb to get some extra run. We’d expect Lamb to draw the starting assignment, while Lin should continue to come off the bench and play more minutes. Last night, Lamb only saw 24 minutes last night (one minute higher than his season average), but keep in mind that Charlotte lost by 15 points on the road against Orlando. Vegas doesn’t expect a blowout in this one (1.5 point spread; Charlotte is at home), so expect Lamb to receive at least 28 minutes with only the inefficient P.J. Hairston behind him on the depth chart. Lamb’s value threshold around the industry sits at 23-25 Fantasy points, and he’s averaging 0.93 Fantasy points per minute. 28 minutes is enough for him to clear value around the industry, so he becomes a great value if Batum is out.

While Lamb should start instead of Batum, Jeremy Lin can’t be ignored simply because he comes off the bench. Lin’s threshold around the industry is 24 Fantasy points, and he’s averaging 0.88 Fantasy points per minute. Lin would need 28 minutes in order to meet value, and he’s reached 26 minutes of playing time in five out of his last six games. Batum averages 34 minutes per game, so if he can’t suit up, he’d leave behind a significant starting role. We’re expecting Lin and Lamb to benefit the most from Batum’s potential absence. Even if Batum plays, Lin remains a fine value play around the industry relative to his productive role as a bench player.

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