Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 19 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Short Slate Note: As always we recommend playing a greatly reduced portion of your bankroll or simply taking the night off on any slate of four games or less. That’s especially the case tonight as five of the eight teams in action are playing on the second night of a back to back, including a Bulls team that just played a quadruple overtime game last night.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
John Wall (WAS) – We had a fun period of profiting off John Wall where he was underpriced based on historical baselines. Unfortunately, that period is over as his $9,300 salary is $1,500 more than it was 10 games ago on DraftKings, requiring an additional six points for Wall to hit value. With the built in profit gone, Wall is no longer a primary value play. However, on a short slate he’s still cash viable as a potential stud to fit in alongside Chris Paul and Blake Griffin (our recommended source of spending), especially since it may be difficult to use those two options with James Harden. It’s a rather ugly short slate, but the one positive is all four games are expected to be competitive. In fact, it’s rather remarkable that all four games have a spread of 1 or less. Either we’re in line for some great basketball, or Vegas is throwing up their hands and saying they don’t have a clue what will happen on a short slate with some uncertain injury/playing time situations. For Wall’s part, the minutes should be high in a game with a spread of 0, and his historical home/road splits (averaging 4.3 more DraftKings points at home since the start of last season) point to him as a stable DFS asset.
Next in line:
Chris Paul (LAC) – While Wall may have the slightly higher projected raw output, Paul is the point guard we’re building around tonight. He’s in a similar situation to where Wall was a couple of weeks ago – not having a great season but it’s leaving him with a price point across the industry that does not reflect his historical norms. It’s something we’ve been harping on over the past week, and tonight may be the last chance to play Paul with built in profit based on his salary. Paul’s $7,800 price tag on DraftKings gives him a value threshold of 39.2 DraftKings points; over the last three seasons Paul is averaging 44.3 DraftKings points. There is some risk in using the Clippers on the second night of a back to back following a grueling loss to the Spurs, but both the slate and tonight’s matchup necessitate taking that risk. The Clippers will face a Rockets team that ranks sixth in the NBA in pace and 23rd in team defensive efficiency. With a tight spread (as all the games have tonight) and by far the highest total (213.5), we suggest building around the Clippers key players tonight.