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12/2 NBA DFS: Holiday Sales at Wallmart

12/2 NBA DFS: Holiday Sales at Wallmart
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 2 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS) – Curry’s the top play and a secondary tournament option on DraftKings where the studs at $10k and above are priced to hit value, if not exceed it routinely. However, we’re not high on Curry from a value perspective. He’ll still get minutes in close games, but any blowouts will see him around 30 minutes

Next in line:

John Wall (WAS) – While it was nice to see Wall breakout in a big way last night following a prolonged slump, his value today has to do with pricing and matchup, not his DraftKings output from last night. At $8,000, Wall’s salary is very close to its nadir. Don’t expect to be able to use him at a lower salary again this season. Since the start of last season, Wall is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, which puts him on top his DraftKings value threshold (40 DK points) on average in 33 minutes. He’s averaging 33.5 minutes. Throw in the pace of these two teams (fourth and 13th) and the Lakers 27th ranked defensive efficiency against point guards (including allowing the most assists per 48 minutes to the position), and Wall is a very strong candidate to pay off his price tag tonight. At a point guard position that lacks clear cut values following Wall, we’ll be building rosters around him on most sites this evening.

Value Plays:

Derrick Rose (CHI) – If both Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks are out tonight, Rose is a very solid value at a fair price across the industry. His minutes should be boosted by about two to three with the team thin at point guard, which right away makes him a decent price play. Additionally, the matchup against Denver is very favorable. The Nuggets are 29th in defensive efficiency against the point guard position. Rose has had a tough time as the pick-n-roll ball handler this year (34th percentile in points per possession) and in isolation situations (39th percentile), but the Nuggets are the eighth worst team at defending the pick-n-roll ball handler and by far the worst team at defending isolation play types.

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