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12/20 NBA DFS: Got Brow?

12/20 NBA DFS: Got Brow?
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 20 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” andTheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Short Slate Note: As always we recommend playing a greatly reduced portion of your bankroll or simply taking the night off on any slate of four games or less.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Plays:

Kyle Lowry (TOR)/Rajon Rondo (SAC) – Our top plays at the point guard position are coming from the same game (207 point game total, 5.5 point spread). We’re siding with Lowry over Rondo in cash games because Lowry’s matchup is better (Sacramento is ranked 25th in defensive efficiency against point guards and third in pace; Toronto is ranked second in defensive efficiency and 25th in pace), but Rondo is a good alternative in tournaments. His ability to contribute in other categories outside of scoring (averaging 11 assists, seven rebounds and two steals per game this season) might help him overcome the difficult matchup.

Value Plays:

Jameer Nelson (DEN) – On our featured site for point guards (FanDuel), Nelson is still not priced accurately for the bump he’s receiving as a starter. Nelson only needs 23 FanDuel points in order to clear his threshold, and he’s averaging 0.69 FanDuel points per minute this season. At that rate, Nelson realistically needs 33 minutes in order to meet value. Nelson has started for an injured Emmanuel Mudiay in four straight games, and he’s provided profit potential in two of those games (38.7 and 32 FanDuel points) while coming very close of his threshold in the other two (22.5 and 21.6 FanDuel points). In those four starts, Nelson played 38, 37, 23 (a blowout loss) and 33 minutes. The Pelicans have been beyond awful against point guards this season (ranked dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards), and they play at an above average pace (ranked 10th in pace; Denver is ranked 21st in pace). We love Nelson’s matchup, game environment (206 point game total, one point spread) and high probability of meeting value on FanDuel. He’s a core cash game play on that particular site, but on DraftKings he’s priced accurately. On the latter site, Nelson needs 28.8 Fantasy points in order to meet value. He still remains valuable on DraftKings due to the tight pricing nature of the site, but he’s clearly more valuable on FanDuel.

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