December 21 CFB DFS Picks: You Can’t Topp Taywan
Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
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*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders (updated as of 12/5/15)
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
South Florida vs Western Kentucky – Miami Beach Bowl
South Florida Team Total: 32
Def. Rushing S&P+: 49
Def. Passing S&P+: 47
Def. IsoPPP+: 49
Western Kentucky Team Total: 34.5
Def. Rushing S&P+: 55
Def. Passing S&P+: 80
Def. IsoPPP+: 70
The Miami Beach Bowl has the highest game total (66.5 points) and the smallest spread (2.5 point spread) in this short slate, which makes it the obvious game to target. When speaking about Western Kentucky’s offense, it all starts with Brandon Doughty. Doughty averaged a hefty 353.4 passing yards and 3.5 passing touchdowns per game this season. He’s a high floor option, notching more than 25 DraftKings points in 77 percent of his games this season. South Florida’s defense is slightly below average against both the run and pass (according to S&P+), but Doughty’s own talent as well as the talent around him makes him a good option across all formats. On a site like FanDuel where his price is the same as Quinton Flowers’ price, Doughty is an excellent cash game option. It’s harder to pay up for Doughty on DraftKings, but he’s viable across all formats on that site as well. Taywan Taylor is by far the best receiver in this slate. Just by taking a look at the average FanDuel points per game, you’ll notice that Taylor (averaged 21.3 FanDuel points this season) is averaging six more FanDuel points than the next receiver (Hunter Sharp), and the gap continues to grow even more after Sharp. Taylor averaged six catches, 105 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game this season. It’s easier to fit Taylor with Kareem Hunt (our other superstar player in this slate) on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, a decision has to be made for one over the other in cash games. We’ll side with Taylor because the opportunity cost at the wide receiver position is lower, but Hunt represents a good alternative in all formats if you’d rather pay up for a running back on that site.