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12/25 NBA DFS: Kawhia’ Gonna Fade This Guy

12/25 NBA DFS: Kawhia’ Gonna Fade This Guy
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 25 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Happy Holidays!

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Plays: The top point guards in this slate are Stephen Curry (GS) and Russell Westbrook (OKC). While both are solid values in a vacuum, it’s very difficult to pay up for either one in cash games due to the lack of safe salary cap relief options to offset their high cost. From a value perspective, we prefer Stephen Curry on DraftKings. The two are priced a bit closer in price there than on FanDuel, and Curry will benefit more from the bonus for three-pointers made. He’s a viable tournament option everywhere in a game that should actually be competitive, leaving him with fourth quarter minutes. On FanDuel, Westbrook is cash viable. There’s no bonus for three-pointers made and the gap in pricing between him and Curry is a bit wider, which makes Westbrook more valuable relatively speaking. With neither possessing a plus matchup from a defensive efficiency standpoint, we’re more likely to get exposure here in tournaments than force it in cash games.

Next in line:

Chris Paul (LAC) – At a few positions today, we’ll look to take the next in line option who provides similar per dollar value but meshes better with roster construction due to a lower actual cost. Making this type of decision across the board will allow you to take one less major cash game risk (you’ll have to take some due to the nature of the slate). The point guard spot is the first position we’ll use this strategy. While Chris Paul comes with some blowout risk (12 point spread), it’s not dramatically higher than the other contests (all have a spread of at least six). That risk is mitigated by a lower total cost and great matchup. We’ve been hitting on how underpriced Paul has been the past two weeks. The tag is starting to level out, but even at $9,000 on FanDuel ($1,400-1,900 less than Westbrook-Curry; 35 percent premium), Paul has missed his value threshold by more than one point just once over his last six contests (and that was by three points). The Lakers are 29th in defensive efficiency against point guards, and, most importantly, their main weakness (allow the most assists per game to opposing point guards) meshes with Paul’s greatest strength (league leader in assist rate the previous three seasons).

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