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The Chalk is Strong With This One

The Chalk is Strong With This One
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 3 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” andTheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Play:

Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Westbrook is often the top point guard option when he plays, and only Stephen Curry (who isn’t playing tonight) rivals him for the top plays honors consistently. Even with Kevin Durant back in the Thunder lineup, Westbrook’s opportunities remain high. Sure, Westbrook is a different beast without Durant in the lineup (36 minutes, 42 percent usage rate and 51 percent assist rate without Durant this season), but he’s playing 34 minutes per game to go along with a 38 percent usage rate and 44 percent assist rate with Durant. Westbrook’s current value threshold around the industry sits at 49 Fantasy points, which is fair relative to his opportunities and production with Durant in the lineup. We realize that the matchup isn’t any good (Miami is ranked second in defensive efficiency against point guards), but on a night where there’s good lower dollar values at other positions except point guard, using Westbrook in cash games is feasible. We’re still a bit more comfortable targeting point guards like Isaiah Thomas and Damian Lillard, who can provide a discount over Westbrook’s price tag and give you a great chance at meeting their individual thresholds. Nonetheless, Westbrook is in play in all formats and he’s a viable “stud” to build around in cash games.

Next in line:

Damian Lillard (POR) – Lillard’s matchup is a bit more favorable than we originally thought. The Pacers are ranked ninth in defensive efficiency against point guards, but they’ve been clobbered by the three ball (ranked dead last in three point percentage allowed to point guards). The Trail Blazers offense runs through Lillard (31.5 percent usage rate, 34.6 percent assist rate), and he’s already chucked 150 three point attempts this season (averaging eight threes and he’s knocking down three per game). There are no three point bonuses on FanDuel (averaging 39.5 FanDuel points), which is a big reason why Lillard is averaging three more Fantasy points per game on a site like DraftKings (averaging 43.3 DraftKings points) where there’s a bonus for each three pointer made. In a competitive environment (two point spread), Lillard is in play in cash games around the industry. However, the best probability for Lillard to meet value exists on DraftKings. His cash game value is at its highest on that site, where he only needs an average performance to come within a point of his value threshold and he offers more upside due to bonuses for threes and double-doubles.

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