12/5 CFB DFS: Don’t Miss Out on These Hilltoppers
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
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*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders (updated as of 11/28/15)
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Deshaun Watson (Clemson vs. North Carolina) – Watson is going to have a big day against North Carolina. The Tar Heels have made some defensive strides after hiring Gene Chizik (overall defense ranked 99th in S&P+ last season; ranked 66th this season), but they continue to struggle against the run (ranked 109th in rushing S&P+), and they’ve specifically struggled against running quarterbacks. Justin Thomas (18-56-2) and Thomas Sirk (8-74-2) generated over 50 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns against North Carolina. They even gave up one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks like Brad Kaaya and Michael Brewer. Those two quarterbacks aren’t known to run the football. Jacoby Brissett (20-128-2) made the Tar Heels’ running defense look silly during their last game of the regular season. None of the quarterbacks that we mentioned are as prolific as Watson, who’s coming off a Heisman-worthy campaign. Watson can throw the football (70.4 percent completion percentage, 8.7 yards per attempt and 27 passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions this season), but it’s his running (averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scored nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games) that gives him plenty of upside in this matchup. We love his skills, but the volume shouldn’t be ignored (averaging 31 passing attempts and 12 rushing attempts per game). No other quarterback in this slate has the sure upside that Watson has on Saturday. He’s a player that we’re building around in all formats (particularly cash games) across the industry.