Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 6 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and“TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Russell Westbrook (OKC) and Stephen Curry (GSW) – You knew we’d begin here. Regardless of the slate, Westbrook and Curry have been the top plays at the point guard position every time they take the court. This won’t change today in a four game slate. Westbrook and Curry join Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond as the top projected DFS scorers, but these “studs” carry risk tonight. They’re all involved in games with double-digit spreads, and Westbrook, Curry and Durant are playing against inferior teams. It’s possible these players don’t see much time in the fourth quarter, which means that they will need to do most of their damage in fewer minutes. Their matchups against teams that are ranked outside the top 20 in defensive efficiency could certainly help get them within range of their individual value thresholds, but it’s the potential for reduced minutes that adds an element of risk in cash games. This is particularly the case for Stephen Curry, who’s playing his second game in as many nights and had to log in close to 40 minutes against the Raptors in Toronto. Both are better for tournaments, but we’ll give Westbrook the nod over Curry in cash games because he’s rested (hasn’t played since Thursday and won’t play again until Tuesday). We’re more comfortable deploying a next in line option in cash games like John Wall, who’s playing in the most competitive game in this slate (two point spread) and will cost you almost 20 percent less than Westbrook and Curry around the industry.
Next in line:
John Wall (WSH) – Wall is our favorite cash game option at the position. Admittedly, Wall’s price point on FanDuel is a bit aggressive relative to his average performance on that site. He needs 40.6 FanDuel points in order to deliver value, yet he’s averaging 36.5 FanDuel points. However, Wall’s price isn’t taking into account his higher workload on the offensive end now that his team’s frontcourt is playing guys like Ryan Hollins and Jared Dudley due to injury. Injuries to Marcin Gortat, Nene Hilario and Kris Humphries have placed more responsibility in the hands of Wall, as he’s averaging 20.3 field goal attempts in his last four games compared to his average of 15.4 attempts on the season. Wall’s minutes have also been on the rise, averaging 38.3 minutes per game in his last four games compared to his average of 33 minutes this season (which is a big reason his average FanDuel game looks disappointing relative to his threshold). His matchup is just average (Dallas is ranked 14th in defensive efficiency vs. point guards), but the increase in opportunities should be enough for him to reach value. Keep in mind that over this stretch of time (four games) where his minutes and offensive responsibility have increased, Wall is averaging 46 FanDuel points per game. He’s playing at home in a game with a total of 207.5 points and a two point spread, and it’s the only game that doesn’t have any blowout risk according to Vegas. While Westbrook and Curry are playable in all formats due to their upside, it’s Wall who belongs the most in cash game lineups. He’s the strongest point per dollar option at the point guard position.