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DFS College Football Week 11

DFS College Football Week 11
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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I had a great time this past weekend at the Florida/Georgia football game, but still missed following along with all of the action all day long Saturday. There were people “making love” in the ocean, girls in thongs on the beach (**cough here’s an idea for the banner, boss. cough***) editors note:  this is a family website, Chris.  We cannot post pictures of girls in thongs, children are reading…continue…, never ending drinking games, and even a few rational football fans to talk to. But there was a part of me that was missing 200+ pound dudes scoring touchdowns and making big tackles. I’m not sure what that says about me to be honest, but I’ll move along and hope my head is okay.

This past week’s top CFB plays seemed to go off really well, so I think I’m going to do the same this week. I’m not going to sit here and tell you to play Johnny Football or Marcus Mariota each week because those are just obvious plays. Anyone could tell you that. I’m starting to look more at value plays and give you the guys I think have tremendous upside. Think of my top 10’s more as the ten players you need to take a deeper look at this week OR are just too good to avoid, no matter if they’ll be 75% owned. Variance can be your friend and finding those sneaky plays is what ultimately will push you into having a big weekend.

**DraftKings pricing on all selections for DFS College Football Week 11

QBs

1. Clint Chelf Oklahoma State $4,750– Chelf is coming off a huge 35 fantasy point game against Texas Tech. That Red Raiders defense is a lot better than ones in the past; so don’t shrug off this performance. Against Kansas, he’ll face a much worse defense and a better matchup. The Jayhawks give up 32 points per game this season. This Kansas defense isn’t the worst against passing offenses lately only giving up 6 TDs through the air in their last three games, but Chelf will provide value on the ground as well. For under 5k, I can’t find a safer QB play to get 20 points than Chelf.

2. Tyler Murphy Florida $3,250– This is not a typo. I like Tyler Murphy this weekend against Vanderbilt. They are giving up 30 points per game and have given up 9 passing TDs in the last 3 games. Yes, Aaron Murray was blanked against them, but have you seen the UGA WRs? I don’t think Murphy is going to break out for the Gators and go Clint Chelf on us, but do I see 15-20 points this weekend? Yes. The Gators running backs haven’t impressed me at all and I think Vandy is just good enough to force them to have to pass the ball.

3. Nathan Scheelhaase Illinois $5,750– I don’t usually use Scheel, but against Indiana it’s hard to pass up a guy like him. He has had some very good games this season (4 TDs against Cincinnati and 5 TDs against the Miami Redhawks). I think he can easily repeat that against the Hoosiers who are giving up almost 38 points per game and given up at least 42 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Scheel is a dual threat and although he lost his best WR, he wasn’t a big enough threat to hamper Scheel’s value Saturday.

4. Joshua Dobbs Tennessee $2,500– I have Dobbs as my top bare minimum QB and I think he’s good enough to just forget about Patton Robinette of Vandy. Last weekend against Missouri, he threw for 240 yards and ran for another 45. He had two interceptions, and still was able to put up 11 fantasy points. I think that’s the minimum he’ll get against Auburn who will not be as effective as Missouri was at stopping the UT run game. Rajion Neal should be much better than 8 carries for 8 yards which should allow Dobbs to be more effective.

5. Brandon Allen Arkansas $3,000– Ok, so most weekends there is little reason to put Allen in my top 10, but this weekend I’m thinking real outside the box. He’s almost bare minimum and although faces an average defense I think he’ll do better than people think. He has been banged up this season, but is nowhere near as banged up as Ole Miss is. Ole Miss is currently looking at 10 defensive players hurt from their last game and all are currently questionable for the game against Arkansas. They aren’t all starters, but some of their bigger names are banged up and this should be a good thing for Allen.

6. Brett Hundley UCLA $9,000– For a second you thought I was going crazy didn’t you? No, I didn’t forget about the big boys this weekend. Hundley is super consistent and faces Arizona who just gave up a nice game to Jared Goff of California. This game should be decently tight which should mean a full game for Hundley. UCLA is having trouble with their run game giving Hundley more chances for TDs from the run game. He has 3 TDs on the ground in the last two games and I expect at least one more this weekend.

7. Daniel Sams Kansas State $6,250– In the last two games, KSU has gone away from what made Daniel Sams a potent fantasy threat. Against Texas Tech, the Wildcats will have to get back to the same offensive gameplan that they used to play Baylor tight. They will have to give Sams the ball 20+ times and try to play keep away. This is a fairly risky play, but one that could pay off big if they can keep the game close. If they get behind early then we will see more of the passing threat. I think Sams should be pretty effective running the ball due to guys like Clint Chelf (6/88/2), Blake Bell (9/44/0) and S.B. Richardson (11/49/0) all being moderately effective and worse runners than Sams.

8. Bo Wallace Ole Miss $6,500– Bo Wallace’s value really hinges on the availability of Ole Miss’ two offensive weapons on Saturday. Backup QB and also goal line threat Barry Brunetti and Jeff Scott are both questionable to play against Arkansas. If those two play then there will be less pressure on Wallace and the ball will be spread around more. If these two are out then Wallace will see more goal line carries and more chances to score TDs. He has thrown for 2 TDs and/or 300+ passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games.

9. Dak Prescott Mississippi State $9,000– Dak finds himself with a great matchup against Texas A&M on Saturday, but beware of his surrounding situation. His mother passed away of cancer on Monday and there is no word yet on if he’ll play. I had no idea he was playing so well this season with a mother who was sick. I just found myself a new favorite player. If Prescott does play this weekend he’ll play a TAMU defense that has given up 30 points per game this season and has struggled against other dual threat QBs. Nick Marshall had a brilliant game against the Aggies scoring 4 TDs and 41 fantasy points.

10. Taysom Hill BYU $8,750– Hill has been magnificent in his last two games and his price shows that. If you have the money to spend on him then you should feel pretty safe doing that. He has 89 fantasy points in his last two games, and has a 51 fantasy point game earlier this season. Against Wisconsin should pose a decent threat to a third straight 40 fantasy point game, but in the last 4 games he has really stepped up his game. In the first 4 games of the season, he had 1 TD pass and a game high of 260 yards passing. In the last 4 games though, he has 11 TD passes and a game low of 244 passing yards with a high of 417 yards. He’s hot right now.

 

RBs

1. Tre Mason Auburn $8,250– Mason stepped up big against Arkansas and saw a heavier workload with Nick Marshall seeing less touches on the ground than usual. This is a big thing for Mason because if he keeps getting 32 carries there’s no way he doesn’t have a great game. He has a TD in 8 of 9 games this season, and has 13 total TDs on the season. With Mason going for 22+ fantasy points in 6 of the last 7 games, I consider him the safest play of the day with a high upside.

2. David Cobb Minnesota $3,750– I have a really hard time going against Cobb this weekend. Yes, Penn State’s rushing defense has been pretty good this season, but it doesn’t mean Cobb won’t be successful. When picking a RB, I’m really looking for touches and probability of a TD. Normally against PSU, the RBs I’m looking at don’t get the carries that Cobb will or the goalline touches either. Cobb has averaged 26 carries per game in his last three games, and has a TD. Do I expect Cobb to go for 34 fantast points on Saturday? No, but I do see 20 points for a guy who is less than 4k.

3. Andre Williams Boston College $7,750– I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not a big Williams fan. His TD numbers were just too low for me besides his monster game against Army. His last two games though have turned me into a believer. He went for 25 and 31 fantasy points in those two games, and obviously put up impressive numbers. He has run for 338 yards and 3 TDs in those two games and faces a New Mexico State team that is one of the worst in the land. They give up 46 points per game and Williams is clearly what makes Boston College go.

4. Desmond Roland Oklahoma State $4,750– Roland is having one heck of a run during his first two starts this season. He has gone for 27 and 48 fantasy points in those two starts and faces an even better matchup when he goes up against Kansas. Roland has 7 TDs in his last two games and a 3 game TD streak. Oklahoma State has always had a thing for trying to be able to run in the red zone and when they face Kansas they’ll be facing a team that has given up 8 rushing TDs in their last two games and 13 in their last 5.

5. Melvin Gordon Wisconsin $6,000– I think a lot of people are going to be off of Gordon this weekend. The fact that James White outperformed his last week will probably make casual fans think Gordon’s amazing run is over. I’m here to say that this was just a bump in the road. Gordon has a past with Iowa and was getting taunted all day. So, he has a hard time with that kind of adversity. Well, last time I checked Mormons don’t have a reason to hate him, so that means I’m not scared of using him.

6. Tevin Coleman Indiana $6,250– It’s hard not to like a guy that’s going to get 20 touches against Illinois this weekend. The Indiana offense has been putting up some big points lately (42 or more in 4 straight games) and has given up 38 points a game this season. This has the making for a total of 80 points. Coleman has gone for double digits in every game and has 4 games of 25+ fantasy points this season.

7. Bishop Sankey Washington $9,750– Sankey is a stud and there is no other way around it. He has 7 TDs in his last 4 games and faces a team that gave up 23/119/4 to Ka’Deem Carey who is not as talented as Sankey. He has carried the ball at least 27 times in 4 of the last 5 games, so if you can use Sankey this weekend then do so confidently.

8. Javorious Allen USC $4,500– With the news that Silas Redd is undergoing surgery on his knee, Allen’s stock jumps way up. He’s the only RB that they have left at this point really with their top 3 out with injuries. He had a huge game against Oregon State rushing for 3 TDs and 133 yards. He’s going up against a Cal defense that is terrible and weak in all faucets of the game. Allen will be counted on big time due to Kessler not being a big time QB that is able to capitalize on a terrible defense.

**NOTE:  Conflicting information being tossed around on Silas Redd.  Here are my thoughts so that you are aware as we move towards the weekend.  Use caution and stay up to date on his status:

8. Silas Redd USC $5,250– The thought that USC is going to completely tear up Cal only in the air is funny to me. I don’t trust Kessler at all to do anything like that. He’s going to need Redd to run the ball well for a USC win. Since returning from injury, he has been running it very nicely, but he hasn’t found the end zone. It looks like Madden is out, but Allen is another RB who will take some snaps from Redd. On two games on the road, he has 41 carries for 252 yards and 1 TD.

9. Josh Ferguson Illinois $6,500– When looking for someone to replace one of Illinois’ top WRs, I think we forget the fact that Ferguson has good hands. He had 6 catches in his last game and honestly his rushing yards per game lately has been brutal. He has done a lot of damage though through the air and finding the end zone. He has 4 TDs in his last 4 games and is coming off a 2 TD game. Ferguson is going up against Indiana and one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten on Saturday.

10. Bill Belton Penn State $4,500– Like David Cobb, Bill Belton is going to get a ton of carries in the Minnesota/Penn State game on Saturday. He has 85 carries in his last 3 games and it doesn’t seem like Penn State wants to put a lot of pressure on their freshman QB. In what should be a tight ball game, I think Belton will get 25 carries and plenty of action inside the 5. Zach Zwinak is no longer a threat to the running game and it has shown in the last few weeks.

 

WRs

1. Deontay Greenberry Houston $7,500– Greenberry has had a very successful last 3 weeks scoring 6 TDs during that time and recording 23 catches. He is clearly the #1 WR on the team and is going to see a ton of targets week in and week out. I think most people will be on the players I’ve listed below and forget about Greenberry. Allen Robinson went for 9/143/1 against this same UCF defense, so I can expect Greenberry to do well against them as well.

2. Marquise Lee USC $6,250– Lee hasn’t been his normal self this year due to injuries and QB troubles, but now he’s healthy(ish) and his QB doesn’t suck (as much as early on in the season). He faces one of the worst teams against the pass when he faces Cal on Saturday. On the season, the Golden Bears are giving up 43 points per game. I think at worst we’re looking at a 20-point game from Lee with a ceiling of 40 points. I’ll take risk on most nights.

3. Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh $4,750– Remember when Tyler Boyd was 7-8k and we were using him? Well, a rough few weeks has dropped his price to this level and he’s not a lock anymore. Last week he went for a big game catching 11 passes for 118 yards and a TD. I honestly think Boyd is fine and should be great this weekend. He had a TD against Navy, a bad game against ODU, and then a really bad game against VT. Playing against VT is one of the toughest things a young WR can go through so that’s a pass for me. Notre Dame can be vulnerable against the pass as seen against ASU, Oklahoma, and Michigan where they gave up 34 points or more.

4. L’Damian Washington Missouri $5,250– This play gains more traction to me if James Franklin ends up playing on Saturday. Mauk has been good to him, but Frankling and Washington had a really good thing going when he got hurt in that UGA game. Even with Mauk, Washington has a TD in every game but 2 this season. In the 4 games before Franklin’s injury (including UGA) Washington had 6 TDs on 21 catches and eclipsed 65 receiving yards in each game.

5. Allen Robinson Penn State $7,750– Robinson has been electric this season and especially lately. He is averaging the second most receiving yards per game on the season and has 6 TDs on the season. In his last 4 games, he has eclipsed 11 catches and 165 yards in each of them. Yea, you could say that’s impressive. Against Minnesota you’ll see a slower game, but that has never stopped Robinson. Even in a huge blowout against Ohio State he went for 12/173/1. He seems to be matchup proof these days.

6. Spencer Harris Illinois $3,500– Harris is one of my sneakiest plays on the day. He had 10 catches last game and has gone for double digits in each of his last 3 games. I’m sure nobody is talking about him, so make sure to roster him if you’re looking for an outside of the box play. Scheelhaase has to throw to someone against an Indiana team that is giving up 38 points per game. I suspect Harris will see a lot of targets on Saturday to make up for Lankford being injured.

7. Mike Evans Texas A&M $7,750– Evans is one of those guys that consistently scares the crap out of me when I use him. He was nonexistent basically in the first half against UTEP and then out of nowhere he catches a TD pass and then goes back into hibernation. He has the ability to go for a huge game as we have all seen, and against Mississippi State, I think TAMU will be challenged more than people think. The reason why I have him ranked this low is more because of the consistency of players that are priced around him than his potential or talent.

8. Paul Richardson Colorado $6,000– Richardson is a consistent target for Colorado’s QB and he has 22 catches in 3 games since Sefo was named the starting QB. He has a TD in each game and 2 big plays (75 and 60 yard catches). Washington is struggling in their last few weeks and Richardson is going to get plenty of looks. $6,000 is a nice discounted price for him and people are kind of off of him these days.

9. Jameon Lewis Mississippi State $5,000– Lewis has been getting consistent catches (7 catches in 3 of his last 4 games), but he’s not getting a lot of yardage. His production relies on red zone targets and the rushing attempts he gets each week. He has 8 carries in his last 3 games which isn’t too bad and against TAMU I suspect Mississippi State to do some funky things on offense. I think they’ll do pretty well offensively and Lewis has 30+ point potential with how bad TAMU’s defense can be.

10. Shane Wynn Indiana $4,750– Wynn is not a high catch guy (3 straight games of 4 catches), and he doesn’t get yardage so why is he listed here? Well, he has 3 TDs in his last two games and faces Illinois in a game that should have 80 points scored in it. Wynn has 16 fantasy points or more in each of his last 4 games and has found the end zone 5 times during that span. I like his ability to score in what should be such a high scoring game.

 

TEs

1. Jace Amaro Texas Tech $7,000– This guy is a beast. That is all.

2. Jacob Pederson Wisconsin $3,500– Pederson has 2 TDs since his return from injury 3 games ago. His price has run up a decent bit, but he’s still averaging just over 12 fantasy points per game since his return. He seems like a lock for 3 catches and 30 yards which isn’t much, but with all of those red zone targets he seems to get there’s a good chance for another TD Saturday.

3. Maxx Williams Minnesota $2,500– Williams has been great in 2 of his last 3 games and Nelson/Leidner are starting to look his way more. He is coming off one of his better games last weekend against Indiana where he put up a 4/78/1 stat line. Nelson looks to have taken over the starter role and the majority of snaps which is great for Williams because he’s the better passer.

Got something in mind you want to add to this College Football DFS Week 11 discussion?  Why not throw it up and bring it to the table in the most active DFS College Football Forum on planet Earth?  We want to hear from you!

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1 Comment

  1. Insider Fantasy

    November 7, 2013 at 10:45 am

    The Silas Redd/Allen situation is weird. Keep an eye on it, but for now it SEEMS like they are splitting carries (not that that’s THAT bad of a thing).

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