I got a little sad this morning thinking about week 12 of college football. It has nothing to do with the matchups or the games or the players available, but more about the season’s end now being in sight. This is no time to get sad though. This is a time to step up the research and to get focused on the goal at hand. For you small time rollers out there, dedicate these next two weeks to making enough profit to join the Big Score 2 and give yourself a shot at big money. For you high rollers out there, keep doing what you’re doing and capitalize while you can.
Enough for my poor attempt at an inspirational speech and let’s get to work!
I’m not going to sit here and tell you to play Johnny Football or Marcus Mariota each week because those are just obvious plays. Anyone could tell you that. I’m starting to look more at value plays and give you the guys I think with high upside. Think of my top 10s more as ten guys you need to take a deeper look at this week or are just too good to avoid no matter if they’ll be 75% owned. Variance can be your friend and finding those sneaky plays are what can help you have a big weekend.
**DraftKings pricing on all selections for DFS College Football Week 12
1. Jared Goff California $4,750– I will be crushing this game with my fantasy teams. I suspect this is a shootout among bad teams who look halfway decent when facing each other. Well, the most reliable player in my eyes is Goff. He has thrown 48+ times in 3 straight games with 8 TDs during those games. Colorado is giving up 40 points per game and has let every Pac 12 team they’ve faced score 44 points or more against them. Goff is hot and facing one of his best matchups of the season.
2. Sefo Liufau Colorado $4,000– So, I like Sefo because he’s been cheap and good for a TD in each of his starts this season, but I want more this weekend. He’s facing a Cal team that’s worse than them on defense. They allow a whopping 44.7 points per game on defense and it really isn’t as good as the paper looks. Yes, they are that bad. Well, Sefo has a dominant WR (Paul Richardson) and a game plan that allows for 25-30 passes per game. I’m willing to bet that in a higher scoring game Colorado throws more to keep up with Goff and Cal’s offense.
3. Baker Mayfield Texas Tech $4,500– I know Baylor has a very good defense, but Mayfield really intrigues me. It’s early in the week while I’m writing this, but if Mayfield starts it’s going to be hard to pass up on his price. He threw 44 times last weekend and didn’t even start. Don’t forget about his great start this season where he had 8 TDs in his first 3 games of his college career. At this price, you can’t go wrong with a great passing offense that will be a part of the highest scoring game of the night.
4. Sean Mannion Oregon State $7,500– Mannion hasn’t been this low in pricing since the early weeks of the season. He goes up against Arizona State and you’re telling me that defense is going to stop him? ASU gave up 42 points to Stanford and 37 points to Notre Dame. You’re telling me that ND’s offense is better than Mannion and 45 passes per game? His high volume passes with most of them headed towards one of the best WRs in the NCAA makes him a great play for me. I don’t have a problem with 2 poor performances from him against Stanford and USC.
5. Blake Bell Oklahoma $4,250– Usually I’m not a big fan of Blake Bell, but I know the Oklahoma offense will be rolling against Iowa State. He has performed well against the worst defense in the Big 12 like when he put up 17 fantasy points against Kansas and did well against Texas Tech who is starting to look worse by the week with 22 fantasy points against them. He’s passing it in the mid 20s and will get goal line carries as well. Before the Baylor game, Bell had 19 carries for 97 yards total against Texas Tech and Kansas.
6. Nick Marshall Auburn $7,250– Going into the Tennessee game, I kew the Auburn offense would roll all over them, but I didn’t realize Marshall would be leading the pack. Marshall only threw 7 times, but ran for 214 yards and 2 TDs against the Vols. I’m probably not going to spend big bucks on QBs, but if I did it’s between Mannion and Marshall. Their price won’t kill you, and their potential is in the 40s. The UGA defense will give up 4 TDs this weekend just like their average shows with their 28 points allowed per game. Tahj Boyd and Tyler Murphy accounted for 3 rushing TDs against UGA this season.
7. Connor Shaw South Carolina $6,000– Don’t look now, but Shaw has been pretty reliable this season. He has gone for 19+ points in 5 straight games and in 7 of 9 games this season. Florida is depleted on defense and gave up 4 rushing TDs this past weekend one of them to the opposing teams QB. Shaw has 9 total TDs in his last 3 games and is hot right now.
8. Paxton Lynch Memphis $3,500– Who is Paxton Lynch? Well, I didn’t know much about him until I faced him in a head to head game this past weekend and he had a solid game. He has 5 TDs in his last 3 games and honestly I wouldn’t consider him if he wasn’t facing South Florida this weekend. They are giving up 31 points per game this season and have been much worse at home where their best performance was 20 points allowed to Cincinnati. They have given up 53, 28, 49, 20, and 34 points in their home games this season.
9. Patton Robinette Vanderbilt $2,500– Robinette is not a guy I’m planning on using this weekend, but he’s not a bad minimum priced player. He has gone for 10+ points in 3 straight games, and if he continues to start this weekend and he should do even better against Kentucky who is giving up almost 30 points per game this season. The Kentucky defense is coming off one of their worst performances this season where they gave up 5 passing TDs to Maty Mauk.
10. Garrett Gilbert SMU $9,750– Gilbert is red hot lately and his fantasy stats are showing it right now. He has 18 total TDs in his last 4 games and doesn’t face a better defense than those games when they play UConn at home. UConn doesn’t have a win on the season and gives up 34 points per game this season. What I like about this matchup is that the SMU offense relies on Gilbert and the passing game, so you know going in that he is a safe play.
1. Tre Mason Auburn $7,250– Mason has been lights out this season averaging just under 24 fantasy points per game. In his last two games though, he has put up 75.5 total fantasy points. Nick Marshall had an amazing day at QB and Mason was still able to go HAM. Georgia has come out and said that they are really focusing on stopping the Auburn run. Smart plan Bulldawgs, I wonder why you would think that’s the only way to beat them. Well, I certainly don’t see UGA stopping Mason due to other RBs having great games against them earlier in the season (Seymour 19/75/2, M.Davis 16/149/1, and Neal 28/148/2).
2. Carlos Hyde $7,250– I had Hyde as one of if not my top play a few weeks against Purdue and even though he ran great, he didn’t help us fantasy folks much. He ran for 8/111/0, which is astonishing to me. How does OSU not hook a dude up with a TD? Well, against Illinois I suspect a lot of rushing yards out of the OSU backfield. Illinois has given up a 200 yard rusher in two straight games, and 4 times this season. They have also given up 100-yard performances to 7 different RBs this season. Did you read what I said? Illinois has given up 200+ yards to 4 different RBs this season!!
3. Jerron Seymour Vanderbilt $5,250– Seymour is a TD machine this season and it’s never been so obvious then that the last 3 games where he has 6 TDs. It all makes sense when you think of it though. Vanderbilt lost their QB, so to take pressure off of Robinette they have been running the ball more inside the red zone. This week against Kentucky I suspect a lot more of this. The Wildcats have given up insane stats to RBs like Henry Josey who went for 113 yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries last week or Senorice Perry who ran for 100 yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries. This will be the last week of Seymour being a value you can bet on that.
4. Malcolm Brown Texas $5,250– Brown doesn’t have the best matchup this weekend, but he does have a full load of carries waiting for him. He has 17+ fantasy points in 3 straight games and most of that is because of his 7 TDs in those 3 games. I don’t expect a ton of yardage out of Brown, but I do expect 1-2 TDs on Saturday. The Texas QB situation isn’t a good one and inside the red zone they know the best way for them to score and it isn’t by passing it.
5. Jeremy Langford Michigan State $5,750– Langford has become THE back for the Spartans and he has been great at it recently. He has recorded at least 22 carries in each of his last 4 games to go along with 100+ yards in each of them. He has played some soft defenses, but that’s not to say Nebraska isn’t soft. The Cornhuskers gave up huge games to Trayvon Green (19/149/3) and Josh Ferguson (19/114/1) earlier in the season.
6. Marion Grice Arizona State $7,500– Grice used to be a TD machine, but more recently he hasn’t found the end zone as often. Against Oregon State, he should be able to find pay dirt and go for big fantasy points. In what should be a very high scoring game, I see Grice as one of the best values as he hasn’t been this low in price in a long while. What I do like about Grice’s recent performances is that his yards per carry have been very good still (5.2 or better in 4 straight games).
7. Damien Williams Oklahoma $3,750– Williams is a total speculative play, but one that could pay off big. Williams didn’t get much run against Baylor, but that might have been due to the score and tempo of the game. Well, against Iowa State I expect Williams to get 15+ carries like he had done in the two games before Baylor. If that’s the case then Williams should capitalize on a run defense that is brutal. Iowa State has given up 3 TDs or more on the ground in 6 straight games. That’s not a typo. 6 straight games!
8.Dallas Crawford Miami $4,500– Crawford didn’t have the best of games last weekend against Virginia Tech, but not many do and his score ended up being pretty decent (16.8). He has been a TD machine this season getting 2 TDs in 4 straight games at one point. Miami will need to get back on track against Duke and it won’t be through the air. I don’t think Crawford breaks out for a crazy game, but he’s not as risky as Williams is.
9. Kelvin Taylor Florida $2,500– Taylor is a minimum priced option that shouldn’t kill you. Florida’s offense is struggling, but Taylor has still scored 2 TDs in his last 3 games. If Taylor can find the end zone this weekend against South Carolina then he’s almost guaranteed to hit value with the amount of carries he’s been getting. He has seen 46 carries in his last 3 games.
10. Kenneth Harper Temple $3,250– Harper doesn’t get the amount of carries to be a great option each week, but against UCF I’ve got a little bit of a feeling. Harper has 4 TDs in his last 2 games and has 11 total TDs on the season. He has caught at least one pass in every game and has been in double digits in every game but 1 this season. I’m not starting a lineup with Harper, but if he fits a lineup I love at the very end then I’m happy with him.
1. Paul Richardson Colorado $6,500– Surpise surprise, I have a WR that is facing Cal in my top 10. Well, every one and their sister will have Richardson on Saturday, but that’s fine. You can’t fade a WR who has a TD in 4 straight games, is the top target for his young QB, and is going to be part of a tight game that has a total over/under of 66.5 right now. I see 7/70/1 as the absolute worst he’ll do this weekend and honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes for 10/150/2 against Cal.
2. Antwan Goodley Baylor $7,250– Goodley is now the easy #1 target for Bryce Petty and that dynamic Baylor offense. The over/under in this one is in the 80s and Baylor is going to score 6 TDs at least against Texas Tech. His price is at a discount and Texas Tech has given up 139 points in their last 3 games. Their defense is imploding while the Baylor offense is rolling scoring 171 points in their last 3 games.
3. Deontay Greenberry Houston $7,000– Greenberry has been a standout WR this season and is the top targery for Houston QBs this season. He had a solid game against UCF, but didn’t’ find the end zone. Before that, he had 6 TDs in the 3 games before that. The Louisville defense has been very good this season, but look who they have played. They have absolutely shut down teams like Ohio, FIU, Temple, USF, and UConn, but they don’t impress me one bit. Those 5 teams have 10 total wins among them with 6 coming from Ohio. I don’t take their defensive numbers that seriously.
4. Quinshad Davis UNC $5,750– If you watched the UNC game this past weekend you saw that Davis is clearly the #1 target for Marquise Williams. I know he only caught 5 passes, but he looked that way early and often. Davis has gone for 20+ fantasy points in 5 of the last 6 games and seems like a bargain at this price. Notre Dame’s best WR went for 6/149/1 against Pitt last weekend, so I can easily see Davis having another 20+ point performance this weekend.
5. Levin Norwood Baylor $4,000– You can think @miggs721 for bringing this to my attention for the article this week. With so much going on this week I might not have seen this one, but he did for me so thank you sir! Norwood should fill in for Tevin Reese for the rest of the season and boy does he come at a bargain price. He’s probably going to be highly owned, but you can’t fade away from a player like this in this kind of offense in a high scoring offense. Norwood filled in nicely going for 4/78/1 in the Oklahoma game.
6. Jeremy Johnson SMU $7,500– Johnson has gone for double digit catches in 4 of his last 5 games this season and probably would have done well if he hadn’t been concussed against Temple 2 games ago. He’s a very consistent player who will rack up the catches, but probably won’t be scoring TDs each and every week. Against UConn, Johnson should be a very safe play. Against a bad UConn defense there’s always a chance for a long TD catch, so don’t count him out. He has big time potential like his 60 point performance against Rutgers.
7. Leonte Carroo Rutgers $4,250– Carroo is a high risk play, but he won’t kill you with his price. He has three different games of 2 TDs and 9 total TDs on the season. He had bad games against Houston and Louisville lately, but Cincinnati isn’t the same defense as those two. Although they’re only giving up only 19 points per game, they gave up 400 yards passing to SMU last weekend and 21 points two weeks ago to a bad Memphis offense. Don’t shy away from Carroo because of their numbers.
8. Tyler Boyd Pitt $5,000– Boyd had a pretty good game last week, but it would have been great if he had found the end zone for a third straight game. UNC poses a nice matchup for Boyd because they’re a worse defense than GT and Notre Dame who Boyd combined for 19 catches, 203 yards, and 1 TD against. I think Boyd will be pretty expensive pretty soon. There are no real defensive numbers to suggest strongly why, but it’s just a feeling I have.
9. Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss $3,500– Treadwell is a nice low priced option against Troy State this weekend. He is coming off a nice 8 catch game with a TD, but he only average 5 yards per catch. That’s a very low number, but Treadwell has the opportunity for longer catches against a Troy defense that gives up 35 points per game. Troy State has given up 90 points in their last 2 games and they were against UL Monroe and LA-Lafayette. There were 7 passing TDs total in those two games.
10. Richard Mullaney Oregon State $3,750– Mullaney is another low priced option who won’t go for a huge day like Treadwell possibly could, but he’s a safe 10-20 point player. Against Arizona State, I see Oregon State bouncing back big and Sean Mannion having a very nice day. It helps Mullaney to have a WR like Brandin Cooks on the other side because you know that every other team’s defense will be focusing on stopping him.
1. Devin Funchess Michigan $5,250– Funchess might be the only positive thing happening in Ann Arbor this season. It’s gotten so bad for Michigan that they are underdogs to a team that has lost 5 straight games. Funchess hasn’t been struggling though as he has 16 catches, 215 yards, and 1 TD in his last 3 games. He’s a mid priced TE, but Michigan’s offense is very easy to predict. They run it up the middle and throw to only two players (Gallon and Funchess). He’ll continue to get big target numbers against Northwestern this weekend.
2. Gerald Christian Louisville $2,750– Christian is a tough choice this weekend, but he’s about as low as I’ll go this weekend for this position. DraftKings has jumped up the prices on some players and now you almost have to be prepared for a punt. Christian is a solid target in the red zone (4 TDs) and has had a catch in every game (which is good I guess). He’s the TE I’ll be targeting a bunch against Houston this weekend in what should be a competitive game the whole way through.
3. Chris Coyle Arizona State $3,500– Coyle has a TD in 2 of his last 3 games and has 10 catches during that time. If I’m not going super cheap on TE on DraftKings then I’ll be going with Coyle as my next cheapest play. He goes up against Oregon State and their less than superb defense in what should be a high scoring game. Those few positives to Coyle is all we can ask for when looking at TEs at this price.
* Jace Amaro Texas Tech $8,250– Amaro is untouchable this weekend. His price is way too high for a player that got banged up pretty bad last weekend against Kansas State. Baylor has shown they deserve at least a little respect when it comes to their defense and Amaro would have to put up 30 points for me to be happy for his price. That’s a tough task for him right now.
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