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DFS College Football Week 14

DFS College Football Week 14
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Ahhh, Thanksgiving is here and gives us a great slate of games to sweat out all weekend long. The best part about this weekend isn’t the fact that many rivalries are being played, but the fact we have games on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Because of this, I will be including the games from each night in my top 10s.

Before I get into the best plays of the weekend I want to touch on the two biggest games in my personal life this weekend: VT/UVA and Michigan/Ohio State. As a Virginia Tech graduate I’ve never seen a loss to those “Zima drinking weenies” as Colin Cowherd would say it. And on Saturday, I expect that to not change. As a Michigan fan as a kid I haven’t seen enough wins over “Ohio”. I would usually take this time to look up the stats and be specific, but I’m scared to. It hurts too much to look at.

If you’re a UVA or Michigan fan then your season can be righted with one win. Both teams have struggled to reach expectations this season, but a surprising win over their hated rival could make it all better. Like in these two games, we as DFS players can make up for a bad season with one great weekend. You could be down a few hundred on the season, but there are enough games this weekend to make you forget about the first 13 weeks of the season.

Without further delay, here are the plays I’d throw my money on this Thanksgiving weekend.

**DraftKings pricing on all selections for DFS College Football Week 13

 

QBs

1.Jameis Winston FSU $7,750 – After this past weekend, there isn’t much doubt in anyone’s mind that FSU will beat Florida this weekend. I really don’t see how Florida stops FSU on offense and because of that I like a lot of players on the Seminoles. To me, it all starts with Jameis Winston. Florida has not had a hard time against the pass lately, but they’ve also faced a GSU team that threw 3 passes, a Vandy team that threw 12 times, and a South Carolina team who is not known for their pasing. I have faith in Jameis at this price to be a safe play. He has thrown 8 TDs in the last 3 games.

2.Braxton Miller Ohio State $9,750– If Braxton Miller was priced a little lower, I would have had him as my number 1 player on the board. As a Michigan fan, dual threat QBs against the Michigan defense haunt my dreams. Well, Braxton Miller has ran for over 300 yards in the last 2 games with 4 TDs on the ground. Miller has also added 150+ yards in those 2 games with 4 TDs through the air. In a big rivalry game for these two teams, I really see Ohio State blowing this one open and if that happens it’ll be starting with Miller.

3.CJ Brown Maryland $4,000– Brown is still marked down from his early season prices and rightfully so. He hasn’t been the same since the first few weeks of the season, but he has shown glimpses of greatness in the last two weeks. He has 5 TDs in the last two games, 3 of which were on the ground. Those are very nice numbers for a 4k option and going up against NC State, Brown should be heavily owned. NC State has given up 38 points in 3 straight games and is coming off a big loss to ECU who threw for 3 TDs on them. Brown is the Maryland offense right now, and I don’t think he leaves the field Saturday with at least 2 TDs (1 being rushing).

4.Marcus Mariota Oregon $8,000 (Friday) – Mariota is at the cheapest price you’ll ever see him and on Friday I think he’s going to be on all my rosters if I play. He possibly suffered a concussion in his last game, so make sure he’s starting when this game comes. Oregon State’s defense has been better since the beginning of the season, but Mariota and the Oregon offense are too good to just get blanked. Mariota ahs pass for 7 TDs in his last 3 games, but has done nothing on the ground lately. Mariota is a high upside play with little risk.

5.Cyler Miles Washington $2,500 (Friday)– Miles could see another start on Friday and if he does I’m really feeling him. He has thrown for 3 TDs in basically 6 quarters of play in the last two games. Washington probably won’t pass for a ton of yardage because of Sankey, but is the kind of safe 12-15 point QB in a big game this Friday against WSU. Miles does have the feet to be a running threat, but I doubt they’ll have him run much. WSU has given up 9 TDs in the last 3 games while giving up over 350 yards passing and 3 TDs to a guy in his first start last week for Utah.

6.Paul Millard West Virginia $2,500– I’m going to end the value QBs with Paul Millard who should still be the starting QB this weekend against Iowa State. He has played well enough to keep the spot over Clint Trickett, but make sure nothing funny happens come Saturday. Why do I like Millard? Well, Iowa State is one of the worst defenses out there, and ice won’t help them Saturday. Their recent performances are skewed due to facing bad passing teams, so I’m not afraid to roll out Millard at this price.

7.Connor Shaw South Carolina $5,000– Shaw needs to step up Saturday in the biggest game of their season, and I think he will. The running game is banged up while the passing game is getting moving a little bit. Clemson has been good lately due to facing bad teams or only running teams, but struggled against Maryland and FSU before that. I like Shaw for 3 total TDs in this big game and Mike Davis returning from injury should happen and benefit him.

8.Tajh Boyd Clemson $8,250– South Carolina is a very good team against the pass this season, but they haven’t faced a Tajh Boyd lately. He has gone for 32+ fantasy points and has combined for 14 total TDs during the last 3 games. Boyd is never going to be one of those players that has TDs vultured from him because they rely on him so much to do the scoring. They have so much faith in him that relying on anyone else is an unnecessary risk.

9.BJ Denker Arizona $7,500– Denker was highly efficient last weekend against the supposedly great Oregon defense. He ran for 100 yards and threw for another 178 while scoring twice. His completion percentage was ridiculously high (86%) and against ASU he’ll be called upon more by the coaches. Ka’Deem Carey is a great RB, but ASU will most assuredly be keying on him inside the red zone. I would expect some QB reads to be kept by Denker and a rushing TD to be added to a great stat line this weekend.

10.Baker Mayfield Texas Tech (Thursday)– If you’re playing on a site that has Thursday games then Mayfield is definitely a guy to consider. Mayfield had a huge game throwing for 314 yards and 4 TDs against Baylor 2 weeks ago. Now, Mayfield has had 2 weeks to prepare for Texas and get his timing refined with them. There is no stopping him as long as his top two pass catchers (Ward and Amaro) are healthy.

 

RBs

1.Charles Sims WVU $7,750– For the second week in a row, a Sims faces one of the worst run defenses in the Big 12: Iowa State. Charles Sims has been pretty safe lately going for 26, 36, and 37 in his last 3 games. Even with ice and a bad Kansas offense, Iowa State still gave up 4.5 yards per carry and almost 200 rushing yards on the day. Before that game the Cyclones had given up 3 rushing TDs in their last 7 games. You better believe that I’ll be owning Sims this weekend.

2.James White Wisconsin $8,250– White has taken over as the main RB for Wisconsin and against Penn State that’ll be even more evident. He has seen 20+ carries in 3 straight games and 69 carries total during that time. Melvin Gordon has only seen 44 carries in those 3 games. Penn State isn’t the greatest matchup, but there is no stopping the rushing juggernaut that is Wisconsin. It also doesn’t hurt to pick an RB who has put up 31+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.

3.Stephen Houston Indiana $4,750– Houston is most likely going to be starting again this week with Tevin Coleman doubtful for the Purdue game. Purdue is just terrible against the running giving up 26 rushing TDs and 5 yards per carry on the season. Against Penn State and Iowa (2 of the teams they’ve faced in the last 3 weeks) they gave up over 600 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Indiana is a spread out attack, but they have no problem running the ball which they showed against Illinois where they ran for 371 yards on 43 carries. Most of those carries in that game were from Houston and Coleman.

4.Carlos Hyde Ohio State $8,250– Hyde has been red hot lately scoring 6 TDs in his last 2 games and just doesn’t look to be stopped right now. Ohio State is a 14 point favorite going into this weekend and Hyde is a reason why. He has gone for 29.9 fantasy points or more in 5 of his last 6 games. Michigan has given up 9 rushing TDs in their last 6 games. They are pretty good against RBs and yardage, but when it comes to Ohio State I’m not sure there is any stopping them. They have rushed for 300+ yards in 4 straight games averaging at least 7 yards per carry in each game.

5.Tyler Gaffney Stanford $7,250– If I’m putting Tyler Gaffney on this list this weekend then you know he must have a good matchup. After getting burned by him this past weekend, it’s tough to even say his name, but against Notre Dame I’m really digging him. Stanford will most assuredly try to pound the run against the Fighting Irish who have given up over 4.1 yards per carry in 4 of their last 5 games. Before Gaffney’s 16 point performance last weekend, he had gone for 27+ fantasy points in 4 straight games.

6.Jeremy Langford Michigan State $7,000– Langford has been great in his last 4 weeks and it’s not surprise the MSU offense has excelled during that time as well. He has rushed for 8 TDs during that time to go along with over 100 yards in each game. Minnesota has struggled against the run lately giving up 5.25 yards per carry or more in 3 of their last 4 games. They did a decent job of stopping Wisconsin last weekend, but MSU’s offense should be able to wear them down Saturday.

7.Malcolm Brown Texas (Thursday)– Brown has seen a significant amount of carries in the last few games and although he hasn’t been that great with them, he is scoring TDs. He had a very nice 4 TD game 3 games ago and has scored in each game once since. He has 8 TDs in the last 4 weeks and against Texas Tech I like his matchup enough to roster him in each of my Thursday games. Texas Tech has given up 15 rushing TDs in their last 3 games. Wow that’s a lot of touchdowns. They’ve also been prone to giving up huge yardage giving up 277 yards or more in 4 straight games.

8.Henry Josey Missouri $5,500– Josey is not a typical featured back, but he has stood out well in Missouri’s last 2 games. He has gone for 58 fantasy points and 5 TDs in the last 2 games. Against Texas A&M Saturday, I really like him to continue being successful. He has seen 15 carries in 4 of the last 5 games and is facing a team that has given up just over 6 yards per carry in their last 2 games to go along with 4 TDs allowed.

9.Bishop Sankey Washington $9,250 (Friday)– Sankey had a monster game last week and has put himself back on the stage as a top 3 RB in college football overall. He has gone for 32+ in 3 of his last 4 games and has scored 7 TDs during that time. WSU has given up 11 TDs rushing in their last 4 games and now with Washington starting a young QB, Sankey has been thrusted into tbeing the main threat even more.

10.Dallas Crawford Miami $3,750 (Friday)– Crawford has taken over for Duke Johnson since his injury and done a decent job. His rushing yards haven’t been that impressive, but he is back to scoring TDs. He had 2 TDs last weekend against UVA and this weekend against Pitt should make for a few more TD chances. Pitt has given up 4.25 yards per carry or more in 2 of the last 3 games in matchups where RBs weren’t that great. Notre Dame and UNC have had pretty weak RB groups this season and Crawford should be able to do just as well against Pitt this weekend for a great price.

 

WRs

1.Sammy Watkins Clemson $8,000– Watkins has been red hot going for 30+ in 3 of his last 4 games and that 4th game was a 18 point performance in which Clemson’s starters weren’t in the entire game. He has scored 5 TDs in his last 3 games and Boyd is really feeling it right now. Against South Carolina, Watkins will be needed to break some big plays to keep their BCS bow game hopes alive. I fully expect him to gain 100 yards through the air like he has in 6 of his last 8.

2.Antwan Goodley Baylor $7,500– Goodley’s price went down even after going for 10/118/1 against Oklahoma State. He has a TD in every game but 1 this season which is amazing. I’m looking at Baylor to put up big points and Vegas has them scoring 38 points right now. Those are big numbers and there is no way Baylor scores that much without Goodley being a part of it.

3.Steve Hull Illinois $6,500– If for some reason you watched Illinois play Purdue last week then you saw that Scheelhaase looks for Hull non stop. He has gone for 40+ points in 2 of 3 his last 3 games and those are games that Illinois has put up big points. They should continue to do so this weekend and Hull will get his 9 catches like he has averaged in the last 3 weeks.

4.Rashad Greene FSU $4,250– Greene hasn’t done much lately, but in games where FSU is challenged then he really steps up his game and is used more often. If you look at a 3 game stretch for FSU where they played against Miami, NC State, and Clemson then you’ll know that Greene can really show up. In those games, Greene caught 22 passes for 366 yards and 3 TDs. I’m expecting the average of those 3 games which would be about 7 catches, 120 yards and a TD against Florida who FSU should crush.

5.Jaelen Strong ASU $3,750– Strong was a guy who just tore it up at the beginning of the season then took a big tumble after injuring his ankle. Well, 2 weeks ago he said he was healthy and let’s just say it’s certainly looking like it. He has combined for 13 catches and 197 yards while scoring a TD during those 2 games. His price is so low in a game that should be in the 60s or 70s that it’s hard to pass up on him. It’s also worth noting that Marion Grice is looking very questionable for the game which would mean possibly more touches for Strong.

6.Kenny Shaw FSU $3,750– While Greene has struggled in the last few weeks, Shaw has excelled. He has 12 catches, over 200 yards, and 2 TDs in his last 2 weeks. Those are great numbers, but against not the best quality of team. I’m interested to see if Shaw’s newfound chemistry with Jameis Winston sticks against Florida or if Greene steps up big again against a better team. It’s hard to say that Florida is a better team than the teams FSU has played recently, but with the rivalry there you never know.

7.Eric Ward Texas Tech (Thursday)– Ward has been red hot lately regaining chemistry with the Texas Tech QBs lately. He has 5 TDs in his last 4 games while catching at least 7 in each of them (35 catches in those 4 games). Those are big numbers and he’s seeing plenty of targets. He’ll probably have a higher price tag, but his performance lately has made him deserving of it.

8.Jarvis Landry LSU $6,500 (Friday)– Landry had a big game against TAMU last weekend in the bad weather catching 4 passes for 2 TDs and 87 yards. WRs have caught 50 passes and 5 TDs in the last 2 games against teams that aren’t necessarily known for their passing attack. Ole Miss is a very good passing offense, but Mississippi State is not, yet had success against Arkansas.

9.Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt $7,000– Matthews is back as a fantasy stud with the ACS being back at QB. Vanderbilt has rotated QBs kind of recently, but when they pass ACS is in and Matthews is the target. Matthews has an amazing 25 catches for 274 yards in his last two games against bad defense. Well, this week Vandy plays Wake Forest who will not be any better. Matthews should be a very safe play for 10 catches and 100 yards this weekend.

10.Deontay Greenberry Houston $7,750 (Friday)– Greenberry’s concussion that he was recovering from didn’t seem to matter last weekend as he went for 6/64/1 against Cincinnati. That makes at least 1 TD in 4 of his last 5 games (excluding the UL game where he didn’t play a full game). Before facing a brutal USF pass defense, SMU had given up 9 passing TDs in their last 3 games. They are susceptible to giving up big passing days like when they gave up 4 passing TDs to Texas Tech and Rutgers, or 5 passing TDs to Temple.

 

TEs

1.Jace Amaro Texas Tech (Thursday)– Amaro is a stud and there is no way around it. He faces off against in-state rival, Texas, on Thanksgiving day and although it’s not a great matchup for passers I still love this play. It’s tough to compare the Texas Tech offense against any other passing attack and because of that I don’t really take much stock in how Texas has done earlier this season. He has caught 9 passes in 7 of his last 9 games.

2.Jake Murphy Utah $3,750– Murphy came back from injury 2 weekends ago and has returned to prime form. He must have great chemistry with his QB because he had a huge game last weekend going for 5/102/2. Against Colorado this weekend I’m seeing a nice matchup and an opportunity to crush value against with a mid low to range price for TEs.

3.Eric Ebron UNC $3,500– Ebron has had a tough go since Marquise Williams took over at QB a few weeks ago, but this weekend against Duke I really think he’ll be needed to use more. I would rather use Amaro or Murphy this week, but Ebron isn’t a bad gut play. Duke has had plenty of trouble against the pass this season like when they played Pitt and gave up 6 TDs or when they faced Miami and gave up almost 400 yards passing and 2 TDs.

 

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1 Comment

  1. wilsons

    November 30, 2013 at 4:43 pm

    millard not the starter

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