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DFS College Football Week 15

DFS College Football Week 15
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily fantasy sports are a fickle thing. There are many theories out there about DFS, but there is one I swear by: When you don’t play much, your team does amazing. This past weekend I focused most of my money on the Big Score 2 (and barely missed out on cashing thanks to Antwan Goodley), but I did enter into the $11 GPP on DraftKings. Of course, my DraftKings team goes off for 7th place out of 400 when that is the only game I enter it with.

This is how fantasy sports are. The industry is just as much about numbers as it is about the psychology of sports. Who has the extra incentive to win? What player has the most to prove? I try not to base my picks off of myself playing doctor, but going into conference championship week, I can’t help but look at certain players and teams having an extra edge on the field because of psychological reasons.

This week, I’m posting the best 8 plays at each position – no matter the cost. I’m doing this straight up because there are only 9 games to choose from on DraftKings and there is no reason to beat around the bush. These players are obviously ranked by potential points scored compared to their price. We all want the best value we can get, right?

**DraftKings pricing on all selections for DFS College Football Week 15

QBs

1.James Franklin Missouri $7,750 Last week I was weary of the Missouri QB situation, but this week all those worries are gone. Frankling played great against TAMU going for 25 fantasy points (2 passing TDs and 80 rushing yards). Mauk only had 2 passes and 1 rushing attempt last weekend. Auburn has struggled against the pass recently giving up 400 yards and 2 TDs to Georgia and 275 yards and 3 TDs to Alabama. With Franklin’s weapons, I really like Franklin this weekend.

2.Clint Chelf Oklahoma State $8,750 Chelf is extremely hot and this weekend he has a good matchup against Oklahoma. He has gone for 35 fantasy points or more in 3 of the last 4 games with a 24 point performance being his worst game. He has 15 total TDs during that time, and Desmond Roland hasn’t been the key hog on the ground near the goal line. Oklahoma has given up 3 TDs in 3 of their last 4 games with the lone team not being able to do so being (Iowa State not surprisingly).

3.Bryce Petty Baylor $10,000 Petty faces a Texas team who just stopped Texas Tech from having a great offensive performance, so there is reason to not like Petty this weekend. This game is more of a hunch play for me and I really believe Baylor will step up their game more in their last regular season game. Texas did give up 300 yards to Texas Tech, and Baylor has been better at home. Petty has 26 total TDs at home, averaging just under 4 TDs per game.

4.Blake Bortles UCF $8,250 Bortles and the UCF offense struggled against USF last weekend, but I expect Bortles to be in prime form with a BCS bowl game birth on the line. SMU is just horrible defensively giving up 35 points per game and over 2 TDs through the air on the season. That doesn’t seem like much, but Montana State, Memphis, and South Florida only combined for 2 TDs against them. UCF is a much better passing team and it will show on Saturday.

5.Braxton Miller Ohio State $10,000 Braxton Miller went off last weekend against Michigan (just like I thought he would), but Saturday night against Michigan State he faces a much better defense. He has gone for 40+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 games and if he was facing anyone other than MSU, he’d probably be my top QB on the board. His ability to run the ball is unlike any QB that Michigan State has faced and for that reason I think he’ll be worth the risk. He has ran for over 140 yards in his last 3 games.

6.Jameis Winston Florida State $9,000 The Seminoles are 29.5 point favorites against Duke in the ACC championship game and Famous Jameis is the main reason why. He has 7 TDs in his last 2 games and although he never goes for a big point total, he is a very safe play especially this weekend.

7.Connor Cook Michigan State $4,000 Cook is about as cheap as I’ll go this weekend at the QB position. He doesn’t throw a ton of TDs (only 17 passing TDs this season), but he does face a really bad defense that just got tore up by Michigan. Ohio State has given up at least 2 TDs per game 9 times this season. With this pick, I feel pretty safe about projecting 3-4x his price for his total this weekend.

8.Case McCoy Texas $6,000 McCoy has had 2 great games in his past 3, but it’s his bad one that makes me rank him at this slot. I think the upside is there for the decent cost and it’s not like Baylor’s defense has been great lately. Baylor has given up 38, 49, and 34 points in their last 3 games and Texas seems to be rolling. They have allowed 11 TDs in the last 3 games including a TCU football team that has only 14 on the season.

*Nick Marshall’s matchup plus the fact that he is mainly just a rushing threat makes me think he isn’t worth his price.

 

RBs

1.Devonta Freeman Florida State $7,000 It is time to play doctor on this matchup. I really think Duke being 29 point underdogs is a joke. I see them losing by about 14-17 points and because of that I don’t think there’s any way that FSU refuses to run it with Freeman. These other 2 RBs get carries because the games always seem to be out of hand, but with a closer game Freeman should easily get more than 13 carries. He has a TD in 8 games while getting limited carries. Freeman is at a great price with some very good upside.

2.Jeremy Langford Michigan State $8,250 Surprisingly Ohio State isn’t that bad against the run, but I still like Langford. MSU will be in the game and it’ll be because of ball control and Langford. He gets 20+ carries each and every week it seems (7 straight weeks) and is the main threat in the red zone (17 TDs on the season). He is starting to catch passes out of the backfield, which adds nice value to him in PPR leagues.

3.Tre Mason Auburn $8,750 If Mason was a little bit lower in price this weekend he might be my number 1 RB this weekend. Mason has really turned it up lately for Auburn scoring at least 1 TD in 4 straight games while rushing for 115 or more in those games. He put up 29/164/1 against Alabama, so I highly doubt any defense can hold Mason to a bad game. Mason will cost you, but should be a safe play Saturday.

4.Marcus Shaw USF $3,000 Yes, I have a player on my top RB list that hasn’t eclipsed 70 yards rushing since week 5. With the tough pricing at the QB position, I think it’s a must to have a player punted on your roster and I think Shaw is the perfect option. He is going up against a Rutgers defense that gave up 2 TDs to a UConn RB whose season high for rushing yards is 62. There is plenty of upside with this pick at this price on Saturday.

5.Tyler Gaffney Stanford $9,000 Gaffney came back from his clunker with a big game against Notre Dame. Hindsight is 20/20, but after seeing what Stanford’s strategy against the very good teams, I really think that’s how they’re going to roll the rest of the way. I expect Gaffney to get at worst 22 carries (he’s done so in 5 of last 6 games) and extend his TD streak to 9 games. Ka’Deem Carey just had a monster game against ASU as Arizona ran for 3 TDs and 249 yards against them last weekend. Earlier in the season, Gaffney ran for 2 TDs and put up over 20 fantasy points against ASU.

6.Lache Seastrunk Baylor $6,000 Seastrunk ran 24 times for 94 yards in their game against TCU and it was evident they wanted to run run run. I think we’ll see more of the same against Texas, but it doesn’t mean they’ll be successful. I love the upside with 20+ carries looking like a huge possibility, but Texas hasn’t given up a ton of yardage to RBs lately. Texas has given up 8 TDs on the ground in their last 4 though. Put all of this together and I think at $6,000 he’s going to be worth a play this weekend.

7.Storm Johnson UCF $5,750 Johnson is a very talented back, but was slowed down against USF last weekend. This weekend against SMU he faces a run defense that hasn’t given up 21 rushing TDs on the season and over 150 yards on the ground in 6 games this season. Johnson is a PPR style back averaging over 2 catches per game and has been very consistent this season. He has put up 16 fantasy points or more in every game, but 2 this season. He fumbled twice last game, so make sure UCF doesn’t pull a fast one on us and start someone else.

8. Paul James Rutgers $5,750 James had a decent day last weekend in terms of yards per carry and I think he gets a full load this weekend. It’s a somewhat risky play because of Justin Goodwin, but Rutgers needs the win to get bowl eligible and James is their top guy. He has had 3 weeks to get healthy and now faces USF who has been bad against McNeese State, Miami, UCONN, and Memphis.

*I had to leave some good RBs off the board, but guys like Hyde and Grice/Foster (depending on who starts) are unplayable due to price and matchup.

 

WRs

1.L’Damian Washington Missouri $4,500 Washington has gone for double digits in every game, but 1 this season and is primed for a huge game against Auburn who gave up monster stats to Amari Cooper who was hibernating for the first 3 months of the season. Washington has had some of his biggest games with Franklin at QB (21, 18, 18, 23, and 33 in 5 of Franklins starts). I’m very high on LDW this weekend and he will find himself on all of my rosters.

2.Kevlin Benjamin FSU $7,000 Benjamin blew up last weekend against Florida catching 9 passes for 212 yards and 3 TDs, so there’s no reason why he can’t have a 30 fantasy point game against Duke. He has become a heavily targeted WR for FSU lately especially in the red zone catching 7 TDs in his last 4 games. Benjamin has a TD in 7 of his last 8 games. Duke hasn’t been that bad against the pass on the season, but got tore up by Pitt, Troy, and Miami. Those teams don’t have the same talent as FSU.

3.Levi Norwood Baylor $7,500 Norwood is the WR I would go for this weekend especially after Goodley burned me bad last weekend. He has gone for 17+ points in 4 straight games and has been big since being the #2 WR. In those 3 games as the #2 starter, Norwood has caught 20 passes for 322 yards and 4 TDs. Baylor is a 15 point favorite against Texas, and they’re projected to score about 44 points. They don’t score 44 points without some sort of production out of Norwood.

4.Jaelen Strong Arizona State $6,750 It’s not ideal for me to pick players against Stanford, but I’m really digging Strong on Saturday. He has had 3 great games in a row and is primed for another considering his huge game against them earlier this season (12/168/1). He’s fully healthy as seen by his previous 3 games and Taylor Kelly will have to lean on Strong considering Marion Grice is likely out again on Saturday.

5.Jeremy Johnson SMU $6,000 If Gilbert is back at QB then move this play up the list to #2. Johnson is a PPR machine with 108 catches on the year and 6 games of 10 catches or more. With Burcham at QB, Johnson went for 8/75/0 which isn’t bad, but not worth the price that he was last week. At 6k, he is discounted a little bit and could be worth the risk as SMU will be throwing a ton and have no reason to sit their best players.

6.Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri $5,750 DGB has been a big time boom or bust player this season and he’s currently been pretty hot. He has caught 7 passes in 2 of his last 3 games. In those 7 catch games, he has 193 yards and 5 TDs. He has sprinkled in some single digit games this season, but he was decently successful with Franklin as the starter.

7.Mike Davis Texas $6,250 Davis has gone for 18+ in 3 straight games and has really helped McCoy become a successful QB in recent weeks. It has to be noted that Davis is the main target for Texas and Baylor has been giving up points and passing TDs lately as I stated earlier in this article. Davis is priced pretty nicely and if you like McCoy then I would definitely grab Davis. Those two will lie and die by each other’s talents this weekend.

8.Andre Davis USF $5,000 Davis has been great with the freshman QB under center and his stats have shown. In his last 4 games he has put up 15 or more fantasy points every time. In those games, he has 28 catches for 444 yards, but only 1 TD. I would have Davis ranked much higher if he could find the end zone more, but I’m afraid that’s not likely to happen. Rutgers has given up 300+ yards through the air 8 times this season which is a good sign for Davis.

*If you think that I would rank Antwan Goodley after what he did to me this past weekend then you don’t know me.

**Many good WRs off this list, but again, guys like Crowder and Montgomery were left off the list due to price and/or matchup.

 

TEs

1.De’Marieya Nelson Arizona State $3,500 Nelson doesn’t do much in terms of pass catching, but he is the goal line RB for ASU. Last weekend against Arizona, he ran 8 times for 35 yards and 2 TDs. With Marion Grice likely out again this weekend, Nelson has big value on DraftKings because of his TE eligibility. He has had a catch in each of his last 2 games, so there is a little bit of value there as well. This is a very solid play considering the rest of the TE options are not stellar considering Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, and Devin Funchess do not play this weekend.

2.Braxton Deaver Duke $2,500 I think Deaver is the only real punt option in my opinion this weekend. He’s been steady each week with 5 double-digit games this season. He had a nice game catching 7 passes for 65 yards against UNC. This weekend against Duke they will either be feeding him the ball more due to Crowder being double covered or because they are getting killed and they just dump off passes to him.

3.Tyler Kroft Rutgers $3,750 If you have some extra money laying around then Kroft might be your guy this weekend. He has gone for 15 fantasy points in two straight games and has a 28 point performance on his resume this season. USF isn’t a great defense by any means and he has 12 catches in his last 2 games.

4.Jeff Heuerman Ohio State $3,250 Heuerman has been pretty dang good recently, but his TDs are a lot of the reason why. He has 2 in his last 3 games, but only has 9 catches during that time. Against Michigan State, Ohio State will have to be a little more balanced which should mean more passes. With no star WR on the Buckeyes, Heuerman might sneak in and be the guy Saturday.

 

Twitter Requests:

Garrett Gilbert SMU $10,000 I’ll talk about Gilbert more in my Youtube video below, but I like him this weekend if he plays. UCF is a tough pass defense, but they have had bad games against Temple and Louisville. They aren’t going to stop the all passing attack of SMU and SMU will need to pass well to their great WRs to be successful against UCF.

Taylor Kelly Arizona State $7,500 Kelly has bounced back nicely since his bad game against Oregon State. He has gone for 28 and 20 in his last 2 games and now faces Stanford who he had a solid game against earlier this season. He threw for 367 and 3 TDs against them in week 4 and with the way they are rolling and Jaelen Strong back, I don’t mind this pick at all.

Rashad Greene Florida State $6,000 Greene has struggled lately and I decided to roll with him last week, but it didn’t work out for me. He went for 4/25/0 against Florida while Kelvin Benjamin had a huge game. I have a hard time paying for Greene at this price when Benjamin has been better lately and is only 1k more on DraftKings. If you look at his game log it really doesn’t seem like the smart option although with Jameis Winston at QB you never can feel certain that a WR of his will be a dud.

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9 Comments

  1. ruckdaddy

    December 5, 2013 at 8:56 pm

    wow great article dude

  2. mattbell21

    December 5, 2013 at 9:00 pm

    excellent article!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. ndirish416

    December 6, 2013 at 2:09 am

    great stuff as always! i would add justin goodwin at 4k as a high-upside play in the event paul james sits (seems about 50/50), he has shown the potential for some huge games and USF is flat out awful

    • Insider Fantasy

      December 6, 2013 at 10:16 am

      I’m seeing James as probably for the game.. You are right though. If for some reason he can’t go, then that would make Goodwin a very solid option.

    • Insider Fantasy

      December 7, 2013 at 10:18 am

      Looks like James is questionable now. Keep an eye on this if you’re rolling him out there!

  4. Lu

    December 6, 2013 at 7:05 am

    Really great work

  5. wilsons

    December 7, 2013 at 9:19 am

    Top notch stuff

  6. Smoke22

    December 7, 2013 at 10:03 am

    Great stuff, thanks!

  7. steve8364

    December 8, 2013 at 1:09 am

    Great article well done. I am a small stakes DFS player I actually made $10 today on CFB with the help of your great player research. I Love the 50 cent idea. keep up the good work.

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