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Who Won’t Break Hearts in Week 4?

Who Won’t Break Hearts in Week 4?
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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I find myself at a crossroads between giving out easy to read good information that might be a bore to read and trying to entertain while keeping the information relevant. For the first two weeks, I’ve stuck to the basic list of top plays and value plays, but now, you’re about to get hit in the head with a brand new style.

In high school I didn’t win any senior superlatives – that’s not surprising considering the vote was rigged. I had “Best Smile” all wrapped up, dammit! Well, it’s payback time and I’m doing my own superlatives, plus some major headlines, only this time for something that actually matters in life: Daily Fantasy College Football.

To make this easier on my peeps, you’ll see these superlatives and major headlines broken up into positions – you’ll also find studs and value plays mixed in.  So, without further ado, let’s break you back into those high school days.

**DraftKings pricing on all selections

QB

Most likely to never break your heart: If you’re not sure of what I’m going for with this, just think about how Teddy Bridgewater owners felt at the end of the Louisville game last weekend. Whatever you’re thinking, C.J. Brown ($6,250) is most likely the complete opposite of that feeling. The guy is a major threat through the air and on the ground. Against UConn, I was scared the pace of play would hurt him, but boy did he prove me wrong. He didn’t score as much as usual, but he still put up 35+ fantasy points because of his 100 yards rushing. He’s consistent, and has a good matchup against West Virginia who gave up 42 yards rushing on seven carries to Oklahoma’s dual threat, Trevor Knight. 

Best Kept Secret: Brendon Kay ($6,500) is not a guy you would have ever considered in daily fantasy, and especially not at his price, but this is the time to use him. Kay has one hell of a last name, and an even better arm. Against Northwestern State, he was 12 of 14 throwing with four TDs. Cincinnati faces off against in-state rival Miami (OH) who has given up eight TDs through the air already this season. Against Kentucky, they made Maxwell Smith a relevant fantasy option. That in itself is impressive and I love the Bearcats offense period against the Redhawks. 

Most likely to be partying with you after winning your GPP: No surprise here, Johnny Football ($12,000) is back on the list and he’s brought his own alcohol. Texas A&M has to rebound from a big loss to Alabama and does so by facing SMU. SMU’s offense is good enough to do damage against the TAMU defense, which can only mean one thing: binge drinking. Johnny Football ran for 98 yards against Bama and threw for 464 and five touchdowns. There’s no reason not to think that Football continues to be the head of the offense and is worthy of his max salary.

Most likely to be in every CFB article this season: The guy that just can’t seem to find his way off of these articles is Sean Mannion ($6,750). At first Mannion came in as a value play, but his recent performance has vaulted him to high prices. The new passing leader of the free world has combined for 12 TDs this season and goes up against lowly San Diego State. He has thrown 43 or more times in each game so far this season and it won’t stop as long as he’s playing. Opponents have thrown for five touchdowns and just one interception in two games so far this season against SDSU.

Most likely to repeat his last week’s performance: If I would have asked you if you knew who Connor Halliday ($6,250) was last week there’s a good chance you would have had no idea. Well, after a 350 yard and five TD performance last weekend against Southern Utah, you need to know his name. He has thrown for 300+ yards in two of three games so far this season. Idaho’s pass defense has given up nine passing touchdowns in three games which is probably why they’re giving up 42+ points per game on the year.

Most likely to impress Rex Ryan the most this weekend: Ok, corny superlative I know, but Rex Ryan loves feet and Travis Wilson ($6,250) has been on a tear recently using his feet. He has five rushing TDs in his last two games combining for over 230 yards. He’s going to be up against a solid defense on the road, but BYU doesn’t scare me now that Ziggy Ansah is gone. If Wilson puts up at least four total TDs against BYU (like he has in two straight games) you’ll be a bigger fan of Wilson than Rex Ryan.

Most random QB that should do well Saturday: If you didn’t watch the Auburn and Mississippi State game last Saturday than you missed a great performance by Dak Prescott ($6,750). The Bulldogs put the team on his back and fell just short of a solid road win. His passing game isn’t much to be desired for, but he ran for 133 yards and two TDs against Auburn. Troy comes into town Saturday and brings with them some deceiving defensive numbers. Their team defense has given up an average of only 25 points, but against FBS teams they have gone up 37.5 points (to UAB and Arkansas State). Troy has given up four passing TDs to zero interceptions against FBS teams this season.

Best value QB Saturday: Just because you’re the best at something doesn’t make you good and that is certainly the case for Connor Cook ($2,500). The Michigan State vs Notre Dame is going to be extremely low scoring for college standards as the over under total is somewhere in the low 40s right now. Cook did show off his arm last weekend against Youngstown State throwing for four TDs, but just over 200 yards. The Notre Dame defense isn’t as good as it was last season and has been beat multiple times through the air as Michigan and Purdue QBs have totaled seven TDs to only two interceptions. Connor Cook might surprise us all Saturday and prove he’s worthy of a higher salary.

 

RB 

Safest RB play of the weekend: Remember when Lache Seastrunk ($8,250) said he was going to win the Heisman in 2013? Yea, I’m kind of in his corner right now after how he has started the season. In two games, he has 28 carries and 261 yards rushing to go along with five TDs. The guy is averaging over nine yards a carry! He hasn’t faced stiff competition yet this season, but that’s fine considering LA-Monroe isn’t a powerhouse defense by any means.

Most likely to be forgotten until he runs for 100+ yards in mop up time: I’m guessing you already know who I’m talking about and if so I’m glad we’re on the same page. Corey Clement ($3,500) is the king of mop up stats and it has shown as he has run for 249 yards and three TDs in the two big Wisconsin wins. Last season against Purdue, the Badger ran for 467 yards and put up 38 points. Yes, please! Purdue is also coming off a tough loss to in-state rival Notre Dame. This game screams blowout to me with Purdue being on the road. Clement should see plenty of carries in this one.

Most likely pick(s) to make you think I’m insane: So, I just told you about how bad Purdue is and how they’re going to get crushed against Wisconsin. Do I need to spell it out any further for you? Melvin Gordon ($6,750) and James White ($5,500) are about to go HAM on the Boilermakers. If you have to pick just one Badgers RB then it’s clearly going to be Gordon, but if you’re trying to play it safe in a 50/50 type game then going both is smart. These two will most likely continue the sharing of the rock that have they been doing this season and who knows which one will get the ball inside the five or break the huge run. I do know that Wisconsin will continue their boring ways and just run run run until the fat lady sings.

Most likely to do his best Ron Dayne impression: Zach Zwinak ($5,250) will no longer be a guy I yell at Saturday, but one I root for instead. He has a great matchup against Kent State and is coming off his best game this season. This YAC monster has scored five times in his last two games and should see the end zone two more times if my logic holds true. Last Saturday, Kent State gave up 300 yards rushing to LSU and three TDs on the ground. LSU’s starting RB is very similar to Zwinak and I think we’re going to see a lot of Ron Dayne like runs against KSU.

Risky value play of the day: Hosey Williams ($3,000) is not a household name, but with the injury to Munchie Legaux, Williams will have to be a big time player for the Bearcats. In their last game, we saw the Bearcats use Kay sparingly, 14 passes, while letting Williams and fellow RB Ralph Abernathy run 20 times total. These two were very effective as both of them averaged over nine yards per carry. Williams is risky though because he shares time with Abernathy. Both will receive plenty of carries, but who is to know which one finds the end zone.

Reliable value play of the day: While Hosey Williams is a risky play, Tre Madden ($4,500) is a very reliable one this weekend against Utah State. I would make sure Silas Redd is still out or placed behind Madden on the depth charts before using Madden, but Madden should be great against Utah State. Madden has 66 carries on the season and is the clear #1 RB for the Trojans with Redd out. He has also run for over 100 yards in each of the three games so far this season. We all know USC has had trouble at the QB position, but it does seem to be working itself out. Jump on Madden now before it’s too late to take advantage of his best value.

Best kept secret: They say the first step to recovery is to admit whats going on. Well, I’ll admit it. I have a huge man crush on Tevin Coleman ($5,500). He has been electric for the Hoosiers and is a big reason why they are averaging 50 points per game so far this season. That number won’t last, but Coleman’s production should. In two of his three games this season, Coleman has rushed for over 125 yards and against Missouri I’m predicting at least another 100-yard game. He has five TDs on the season.

 

WR

Best play of the day: Brandin Cooks ($8,750) makes me do something I like to call “The Happy Dance” every time I pick him. This season he has caught 29 passes for 498 yards and seven TDs. Some would say those three games are enough to make him a must play every week and I would agree with them when his price is under 9k. He is extremely affordable for a guy that is the favorite target of the passing leader of the free world (Mannion).

Football’s favorite target: Johnny Football has one target that he feels safe throwing to at the most important times. Mike Evans ($7,000) is clearly the best WR on the same team as Football and it shows by his stats. He has three TDs on the season and in his last game against Alabama he could not be stopped. If Evans put up half the stats of his last game (7/279/1) I would be a happy man on Saturday.

Most consistent: Allen Robinson ($6,500) is about as consistent as they come and there are no signs of slowing down. With other plays there is always a risk of an off day, but not with Mr. Robinson. He has caught seven or more passes in all three games this season. He has put up 125 or more yards receiving in each game and has added exactly one TD in each game. Hackenberg, the freshman QB for Penn State, is smart and will keep going to his best WR against Kent State, a team who gave up three passing TDs last weekend to LSU.

Best value WR of the day: There are a few super value plays I like at this position, but I’m really starting to like Nelson Agholor ($2,500) again. He disappointed m in week two, but came back with a few catches last weekend. This weekend he gets to face Utah State and with the USC QBs playing better Agholor regains solid value.

Most likely to break a record Saturday: Michael Campanaro ($8,250) tied an ACC record for most catches in a game (16) and is as good of choice as any to break that record before season’s end. Campanaro has put up big number of catches before putting up 16, 13, and 12 catches last season. He is the clear #1 for Wake Forest and going up against Army the Demon Deacons are in for a tougher challenge than most people think. This game will stay close due to Army’s running ability, and Campanaro will have to be used a lot to get Wake Forest the win.

Most likely to make you say “Who?”: Shakim Phillips ($4,000) is a super sleeper for me this weekend and it’s because I really don’t think people will consider him. He has put up two great games going for two TDs against Towson, and going HUGE against Maryland for 10/178/1. Those are monster numbers out of a mid to low level priced player. Looking at his matchup, Michigan doesn’t scare me. They had a tough time with Akron last weekend and gave up over 300 yards passing and two TDs to their QB. UConn will be at home and the more I look at this guy the more I like him.  That said, Phillips was injured in his last game and as of right now he is considered questionable. Be sure to keep this in mind when considering him. Also check twitter for updates on his situation.

Guy with lowest ceiling, but a double-digit floor: I hate taking guys in terrible offenses (Florida I’m looking at you), but Trey Burton ($2,500) is a guy to seriously consider due to his price. Burton has caught five and six passes in his two games this season and is obviously a reliable option for Driskel. The problem with Burton is that his ceiling is very low as the best case scenario for him is 5/60/1 which is only 17 fantasy points. If he gets in the end zone that’s great, but for you to play him this weekend you’ll have to be happy with 11-12 points. I do feel the potential for a better Florida offense against Tennessee, so hopefully we see a touchdown out of Burton.

 

TE 

The only tight end to spend money on this weekend: This past weekend showed you all why I say to never pay for tight ends. Guys like Bolser, Seferian-Jenkins, Vitale, and Coyle all were huge duds for their prices. This weekend the only guy I’d consider spending money on (and I wouldn’t’ in the end) is Jace Amaro ($5,000). He played one half against SMU and only had three catches for 42 yards, but since then he has gone for 8/142/1 and 9/97. Those numbers are great for a tight end and one of those games was against Stephen F. Austin. That might seem irrelevant, but I like to see how guys play against weaker teams when they’re playing another weaker team that weekend. Amaro goes up against Texas State and should see plenty of targets.

The best of the rest: After Amaro I really don’t see anyone worth spending top dollar money on. Some guys I would consider though are Gerald Christian ($3,000), Devin Funchess ($3,000), and Troy Niklas ($2,750). These three are not minimum price, but are close and have some pros to using them. Christian has been solid in that Louisville offense and against FIU I think Bridgewater will really want to have a big bounce back game through the air. Funchess finally found the end zone last weekend, but didn’t do much else besides that. Michigan’s WRs other than Jeremy Gallon though haven’t been impressive enough though to garner all of Devin Garner’s looks. Troy Niklas seems to be a big play guy with decent bust potential. Against MSU he already has his hands full, but I like his upside. Tommy Rees never really felt comfortable and Niklas was hurt the most by it. I expect Rees to throw more than just screens and quick passes against MSU this weekend.

Best value play at tight end: This really feels like throwing darts at a list of players to figure out what minimum priced guy to go with. There isn’t much to go with considering I can’t watch every game, but what I can do is look at numbers and matchups. Justin Sinz ($2,500) has caught a pass in every game and was very good against Notre Dame in primetime last Saturday. He went for a very nice 6/45/1 and should be deserving of a few more looks against Wisconsin.

Risky “why not” tight end play: Xavier Grimble ($2,500) hasn’t done much this season as he has been hampered by bad QB play, but last week we saw some better passes from USC QBs. Grimble only has six catches on the season, but there is reason to think he’ll eventually have a big game. He caught five TDs last season, so he has to eventually get one this season right?

Got something in mind you want to add?  Why not throw it up and bring it to the table in the most active DFS College Football Forum on planet Earth?  We want to hear from you!

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4 Comments

  1. LHitch09

    September 17, 2013 at 3:55 pm

    great content as always IF. also great style, loved it.

  2. RonPaul2012

    September 18, 2013 at 11:39 am

    ugh I wasnt going to play any CFB this week and just focus on NFL but reading this makes me want to dive right in! Good stuff as always

    • Lu

      September 18, 2013 at 11:53 am

      IF is definitely the man. Guy gets it done.

  3. mattbell21

    September 20, 2013 at 9:35 am

    By far your best work bro…. Keep it up

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