Going All In: DFS High-Priced Pitching Not Doing Well
As a reminder, this Thursday piece is a continuing examination of the merits of spending on DFS high-priced pitching. (You can always look back here for the introduction.) This entire season, I’ll be tracking lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyAces. There will be two competiting lineups on each site, one using the highest-priced pitchers and another avoiding the those. As a FYI, “highest-priced” means the Top 1-3 guys on most days. In addition, many of the hitters will remain the same to get a decent lineup-to-lineup comparison with the saved money used at 1-3 spots to improve the hitting choices.
For the method in choosing pitchers, it’s not arbitrary. I am using rankings, which are nearly identical to the ones you can find in DailyRoto’s daily lineup spreadsheets. I’ll never take the highest-priced pitcher if he’s not even a recommended play, and I won’t use a cheap pitcher that should be avoided. For example, on April 10, Gio Gonzalez was heavily recommended industry wide and No. 1 or 2 price wise. Drew Pomeranz and Mike Fiers were lower priced but highly recommended too. For the comparative lineups, I used Gio and Pomeranz in one and Fiers and Pomeranz in the other on DraftKings. On FanDuel that day, one lineup had Gio and the other Pomeranz. Make sense? Good.
Before anyone asks, when you see skipped days, that could be for various reasons: too many weather concerns, small slate to get a fair comparison, wasn’t home for enough research (happens often on Sundays). Hey, we still have lives too. It’s not a good start to 2015 for the pro-spending method:
DraftKings: Gio and Pomeranz 117.80, Fiers and Pomeranz 132.40 (-14.60)
FanDuel: Gio 38.33, Pomeranz 45.00 (-6.67)
DraftKings: Sale and Greinke 119.65, Greinke and Hahn 116.80 (+2.85)
DraftKings: Lester and Cashner 113.20, Pineda and Cashner 145.55 (-32.35)
FanDuel: Lester 25.25, Cashner 38.25 (-13.00)
DraftKings: Harvey and Arrieta 72.50, Burnett and Greene 152.80 (-80.30)
FanDuel: Harvey 23.00, Greene 22.00 (+1.00)
FantasyAces: Harvey and Arrieta 48.00, Quintana and Greene 56.75 (-8.75)
DraftKings: Lynn and McHugh 125.20, Morrow and Pomeranz 115.00 (+10.20)
FanDuel: Lynn 41.25, Niese 43.83 (-2.58)
DraftKings tracking -97.75 or -19.55 FPPC (Fantasy Points Per Contest), and yes, I can hear you saying April 14 is affecting that heavily. So, as disclaimer, DK is at -17.45/-2.91 without it.
FanDuel: -15.59 and -3.90 FPPC
FantasyAces: -11.50 and -5.75 FPPC
There have only been three instances of the high-priced pitcher method performing better so far. There is still plenty of time, but early going has the second/third tier pitching method performing better.