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DFS NASCAR: Quaker State 400 Preview

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DFS NASCAR: Quaker State 400 Preview
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There is only one 1.5-mile track left before the playoffs begin and It’s Kentucky Speedway which hosts the Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts. The track layout is comparable to other 1.5 mile tracks like Texas, Charlotte, and Atlanta. Drivers that have succeeded at 1.5 mile tracks earlier in the season will continue their success and be the best picks.

TOP PRICED PICKS

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 on DraftKings) has never won at Kentucky, but will be one of the very best picks considering his performance on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Truex has finished eighth or better at all 1.5-mile tracks in 2017.  In six starts at the site, Truex has three Top 10 finishes, the sixth-best Average Running Position of 12.2, the fifth-most Fastest Laps at 76, and the seventh-best Driver Rating of 91.3. Truex starts second and was second in both practice sessions. Watch for Truex to compete for the win and lead a lot of laps.

Kyle Busch ($10,200) is one of only three drivers to have won at Kentucky in the past. In six starts at KS, Kyle Busch has two wins, the second-most Laps Led at 437, the best ARP of 4.9, the most Laps in the Top 15 at 1,524, and the best DR of 125.6. Kyle Busch will start first and was fifth in both practice sessions. Because of his starting position, Kyle Busch can lead a solid number of laps and will finish in the Top 5.

Brad Keselowski ($10,100) has won three times at Kentucky, the most of active drivers. In six starts at Kentucky, Keselowski has five Top 10 finishes, the most Laps Led at 483, the third-best Average Finishing Position of 8.2, and the second-best DR of 119.2. Keselowski has finished sixth or better in four of the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks. Keselowski starts 10th and had the third-best 10 Consecutive Lap Average in final practice. As indicated by practice speeds and history, Keselowski will finish above his starting position.

Kyle Larson ($10,000) is one of the best drivers on 1.5 mile tracks this season and is a must-start this week. In three starts at Kentucky, Larson’s best finish is 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. Larson has finished in the Top 5 in three of the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks. Larson will start last after failing pre-qualifying inspection and was fastest of final practice. Larson will finish in the Top 5, delivering more points from Place Differential than any other driver.

Kevin Harvick ($9,800) has finished in the Top 10 in five of the last seven races in 2017. Harvick also finished in the Top 10 in four out of five race at 1.5 mile tracks in 2017. In six starts at Kentucky, Harvick has four Top 10 finishes, as well as an ARP of 8.8, 128 Laps Led, and a DR of 102.8, which is fourth of active drivers. Harvick starts seventh. Based on history and recent momentum this season, he will finish around his starting position.

Kentucky is one of only a few active tracks where Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) does not have a victory. In six starts at KS, Johnson has five Top 10 finishes, the third-most Laps Led at 203, the fifth-best ARP of 11.3, and the fifth-best DR of 102.1. Johnson starts eighth and was sixth in final practice. Johnson will finish around his starting position as marked by his practice speeds.

Chase Elliott ($9,500) has been solid in the last five races by finishing eighth or better four times. In his only start at Kentucky, Elliott started eighth and finished 31st, 57 laps down. Elliott starts 12th and was third in final practice. Elliott will improve upon his unfavorable history by finishing inside the Top 10 as denoted by recent performance this season and his practice speeds.

Denny Hamlin’s ($9,200) performance on 1.5-mile tracks this season has been mixed. Hamlin has two Top 10 finishes, but three finishes outside the Top 20. In six starts at Kentucky, Hamlin has two Top 10 finishes, the eighth-most Fastest Laps at 54, the fifth-most Laps Led at 76, and the ninth-best DR of 89.1. Hamlin starts fifth and was 14th in final practice. Because of his high starting position and inconsistency, Hamlin is an unfavorable pick.

Matt Kenseth ($9,100) is the only driver to have finished in the Top 10 in every race at Kentucky. In six starts at the site, Kenseth has the second-best ARP of 8.2, the fourth-most Fastest Laps at 92, and the third-best DR of 107.9. Kenseth starts third and was seventh in final practice. Kenseth will finish in the Top 10, slightly behind his starting position.

Joey Logano ($9,000) has nine Top 10 finishes in 2017, but only one of them was in the last eight races. In six starts at Kentucky, Logano has three Top 10 finishes, the seventh-best ARP of 13.4, the eighth-most Laps in the Top 15 at 984, and the sixth-best DR of 94.5. During final practice, Logano was 10th in the 10 Consecutive Lap Average, and will start 11th. Logano will finish around his starting position based on recent performance at KS and his practice speeds.

MID-RANGE PRICED PICKS

Clint Bowyer ($8,400) is the best bet for owners looking for PD in the $8,000 price range. Bowyer has finished 14th or better in all races on 1.5-mile tracks this season. In six starts at Kentucky, Bowyer has one Top 10 finish. Bowyer starts 16th and was 10th in final practice. Bowyer will finish ahead of his starting position and inside the Top 10 as designated by his practice speeds.

Clint Bowyer’s Stewart Haas-Racing teammate Kurt Busch ($8,100) is another driver to recommend in the $8,000 price range as a favorable choice. In six starts at Kentucky, Kurt Busch has four Top 10 finishes, the fourth-best AFP of 10.0, the 10th most Laps in the Top 15 at 964, and a DR of 88.4, which is 11th of active drivers. Kurt Busch starts 15th and had the ninth-best 10 Consecutive Lap Average in final practice. Kurt Busch will finish inside the Top 10 and score a small amount of points from PD as signaled by history and practice speeds.

Erik Jones ($7,900) will be making his Cup Series debut at Kentucky. In four Xfinity Series starts at the site, Jones has three Top 10 finishes. Jones starts 14th and was 11th in final practice. Watch for Jones to sneak into the Top 10, a few spots ahead of his starting position.

Austin Dillon ($7,600) will be a solid driver to choose this week. In four starts at Kentucky, Austin Dillon has two Top 20 finishes. Austin Dillon starts 25th and was 22nd in final practice. Austin Dillon will finish inside the Top 20 as showcased by practice speeds and procure additional points based on PD.

Last week’s Daytona winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400) has finished in the Top 15 in four of five races at 1.5 mile tracks in 2017. Stenhouse will finish in that range again at Kentucky, ahead of his starting position. In four starts at Kentucky, Stenhouse’s best finish is 11th. Stenhouse starts 18th and was 12th in final practice.

BARGAIN VALUES

One of the more consistent drivers for his value is Trevor Bayne ($6,900) who has finished 16th or better at all 1.5 mile tracks in 2017. Bayne starts 19th and was 16th in final practice. In two starts at Kentucky, Bayne has the seventh-best AFP of 12.0, and he finished with a positive PD. Bayne will finish in the Top 15 once again as signified by practice speeds and his recent performance at 1.5 mile tracks.

Ty Dillon ($6,700) has been exceptional for his value this season and he will continue to be a strong value play at Kentucky. Ty Dillon has finished with both a positive PD and in the Top 20 three times at 1.5 mile tracks in 2017. Ty Dillon starts 27th and was 27th in final practice. Ty Dillon will finish ahead of his starting position based on his momentum and performance on 1.5 tracks this season.

David Ragan ($5,400) secured his best finish of sixth in 2017 last week at Daytona. In six starts at Kentucky, Ragan has two Top 20 finishes. Ragan starts 26th and was 20th in final practice. Ragan’s practice speeds indicate a Top 20 finish, allowing him to collect a couple points from PD.

TOP DRIVERS IN EACH PRICE RANGE FOR QUAKER STATE 400 PRESENTED BY ADVANCE AUTO PARTS – BASED ON COMBINATION OF PROJECTED PERFORMANCE AND VALUE

$10,000 – Plus Range

1: Kyle Larson ($10,000) – Larson starts in the last position and was fastest of final practice. He will collect more points from PD than any other driver.

2: Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400) – Truex starts second and was second in both practice sessions. Truex has a fast car and will lead a lot of laps while competing for the win.

3: Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – Keselowski starts 10th and had the third-best 10 Consecutive Lap Average in final practice. Keselowski’s practice speeds and history imply that he will finish in the Top 10, above his starting position.

$9,000 – Plus Range

1: Chase Elliott ($9,500) – Elliott starts the furthest back of all drivers in this price range in 12th. Elliott was third in final practice and has finished eighth or better four times in the last five races this season. Elliott will be a very good pick for this price range based on practice and recent momentum.

2: Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) – Johnson starts eighth and was sixth in final practice. Johnson’s practice speeds suggest that he will finish slightly ahead of his starting position.

3: Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – Harvick starts seventh and has favorable history at Kentucky. He will finish around his starting position as suggested by history and recent momentum this season.

$8,000 – Plus Range

1: Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – Bowyer starts the furthest back of all drivers in this price range in 16th. Bowyer was 10th in final practice and has finished 14th or better in all races on 1.5 Mile tracks in 2017.

2: Kurt Busch ($8,100) – Kurt Busch starts 15th and had the ninth-best 10 Consecutive Lap Average in final practice. Kurt Busch will finish in the Top 10 and capture points based on PD.

3: Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – Blaney starts sixth and was fourth in both practice sessions. Blaney’s practice speeds suggest that he finishes around his starting position.

$7,000 – Plus Range

1: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400) – Stenhouse starts 18th and was 12th in final practice. Considering how he has finished in the Top 15 four times at 1.5 mile tracks this season and his practice speeds, he will finish there once again.

2: Austin Dillon ($7,600) – Austin Dillon starts 25th and was 22nd in final practice. He will secure a couple of points based on PD as he will finish in the Top 20 as indicated by practice speeds.

3: Erik Jones ($7,900) – Jones starts 14th and was 11th in final practice. Jones has been successful at Kentucky in the Xfinity Series and has practice speeds that suggest a finish in the Top 10.

Below $7,000 Range

1: David Ragan ($5,400) – Ragan starts 26th and was 20th in final practice. Ragan will move several spots up from his starting position to finish in the Top 20 based on practice speeds.

2: Trevor Bayne ($6,900) – Bayne starts 19th and has finished 16th or better in all 1.5 mile races this season. Bayne will continue to finish that well this week as he was 16th in final practice.

3: Ty Dillon ($6,700) – Ty Dillon starts 27th and had finished in the Top 20 in three races at 1.5 mile tracks this season. He will finish in the Top 20 based on his performances this season.