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Dobish’s Top NCAA Bets for 9/16

David Richard - AP
Dobish’s Top NCAA Bets for 9/16
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Editor’s note: This article is part of a 4-week series being done with MyBookie.Ag

 

It’s hard to believe, but we’re already heading into our third full weekend of college football. It’s the fourth weekend for some teams. When you’re having a great time it goes by so very quickly, which explains why mowing the lawn or going to the dentist always seems like it takes forever. I know the novelty has long since worn off on mowing our back forty, which seems like way more than a half-acre. Together, we’ll make enough money to pay someone else to do the work. NCAA bets! Let’s go!

UCLA (-3 1/2) at Memphis

I locked this in at 2 1/2 earlier in the week, but I’d be willing to take the Bruins giving up to a touchdown. That’s how confident I am in Josh Rosen’s ability to move the ball against Memphis. The Tigers were outgained by Louisiana-Monroe in their opener, 425 to 416 in total yards, while barely squeaking out a 37-29 win as four-touchdown favorites. ULM let it fly for 7.5 yards per pass play, and if not for three fumbles lost and four total turnovers, the Warhawks might have come away with the straight-up win.

We all remember UCLA’s miraculous comeback against Texas A&M on opening weekend, down 44-10, only to bounce back and win 45-44. It’s a bit alarming that they have yielded 33.5 PPG in two outings, but they are also averaging 50.5 PPG on offense. A Memphis team that couldn’t even stop a mediocre Sun Belt squad isn’t going to offer much resistance against a Heisman Trophy candidate and his merry band of men. Unless former Memphis (State) greats Paxton Lynch, DeAngelo Williams and Isaac Bruce suit up, look for the Bruins to overcome in a shootout, pulling away in the second half for a comfortable cover.

Central Michigan (+10) at Syracuse

We were all over the Chippewas of CMU last week in Kansas, and they’re catching double digits this weekend in Syracuse. That’s an Orange side which is 0-2 ATS so far and lost to Middle Tennessee last weekend that is laying double digits, by the way.

The Chippewas easily covered last weekend against the Jayhawks, led by MAC Offensive Player of the Week Shane Morris. The graduate transfer from Michigan tossed five touchdowns while throwing for 467 yards, third-most in school history. Syracuse had difficulty containing MT’s Brent Stockstill last weekend, allowing three passing scores and a total of 363 yards to the Blue Raiders offense. The Chips should do even more damage against a very forgiving D. Central Michigan may or may not win, but 10 or more points makes them an awfully attractive ‘dog. Fire up, Chips!

Oregon at Wyoming (over 59 1/2)

The Oregon offense might not officially be back to their Marcus Mariota-type numbers, but they looked awfully impressive against Power 5 foe Nebraska last weekend, at least for a half. Oregon rolled up 566 total yards of offense in their 42-35 win against Nebraska, even though they were scoreless in the second half. Royce Freeman is a handful out of the backfield, gashing Big Red for 153 yards and two scores last week, and Charles Nelson (no relation to the old Match Game guy) posted 117 yards with a score, and is a threat to house it every time he touches the ball on special teams.

For Wyoming, they have gotten off to a bit of a sluggish start offensively, and the ‘under’ has hit in each of their first two games. But all the scouts are wetting themselves over Cowboys QB Josh Allen and his potential at the next level. He should find plenty of wide open spaces to throw this weekend against a Ducks defense that allowed 6.1 yards per pass play to Nebraska, and 5.5 yards per pass play to FCS Southern Utah. This line seems awfully low given the oodles of NFL-caliber offensive talent on the field, and you could be holding a winning ticket as early as the middle of the second half.

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