MLB DFS GPP Recap: The Red Sea
On a night where LeBron James might have had you screaming “YES!,” it was actually the word “NO” that made all the money.
Chris Heston kept the Mets from getting any hits. Yep, he threw a NO-NO.
Reds’ Brass had NO fun opening their texts from Joey Votto last night. They were littered with middle finger emojis in reference to Votto’s walk-too-often approach at the plate.
And last but not least, Giancarlo Stanton made NO friends in Canada. Who needs em, eh?
Below I’ve compiled a table of some of the night’s best performers. Without any exposure to them, you won NO money.
|Player||Stat Line||DK Points||FD Points|
|Chris Heston||3HBP, 1W, 11K, 9 IP, 1CG, 1CGSO, 1NH||54.5||24|
|Joey Votto||4R, 3H, 3HR, 4RBI, 1BB||48||20.75|
|Giancarlo Stanton||2R,2H,2HR,2RBI, 1BB||30||12.75|
|Todd Frazier||2R, 3H, 1HR, 1RBI||22||8.5|
|Anibal Sanchez||1W, 7K, 7.2IP, 2BB, 6HA||30.45||18.66|
All of the names above have a couple things in common:
- You’ll find all of them in the lineups at the top of leaderboards around the DFS industry.
- You probably didn’t own them, because their collective ownership was very small.
The biggest takeaway of the night is point number two – the fact that ownership levels were particularly low for all of the table above, with the exception of Giancarlo Stanton. It made sense to me that there was smaller exposure to Heston on the road against the Mets, and Sanchez, who hasn’t been very good this year, but I did not expect to see such low ownership on Joey Votto and Todd Frazier against Aaron Harang at Great American Ballpark.
In fact, the ownership levels were so shocking, that I made sure to include their ownership percentages separately below the winning lineups for each of the big tournaments around the industry. I think it will surprise you as well.
$250K Super Rally, $5 Entry, $20,000 to First Place
Lineup: Chris Heston, Yan Gomes, Joey Votto, Chase Utley, Todd Frazier, Jhonny Peralta, Jay Bruce, Kole Calhoun and Giancarlo Stanton
Ownership Levels: Heston 1.6%, Votto 6.8%, Frazier 4.6%
$150K Monster, $300 Entry, $20,000 to First Place
Lineup: Anibal Sanchez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joey Votto, Neil Walker, Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Giancarlo Stanton, George Springer, Jay Bruce
Ownership Levels: Sanchez 3.6%, Votto 6.1%, Frazier 5.6%
$175K Grand Slam, $25 Entry, $15,000 to First Place
Lineup: Chris Heston, Matt Wieters, Joey Votto, Neil Walker, Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton, Starling Marte
Ownership Levels: Heston 1.9%, Votto 5.9%, Frazier 4.9%
First off, congrats to all the big winners over at FanDuel, especially chipotleaddict who now will have the opportunity to buy himself a Chipotle franchise. That sounds like it might be a dream come true, but I’m still Team Qdoba. Editor’s Note: Logan has been reprimanded for being on anything other than Team Chipotle.
Notice that all of these teams had essentially the same line of thought – Cincinnati Reds Stack. Every big winner on FanDuel used three or four Cincinnati Reds, and all three used the combination of Todd Frazier, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Bruce was ejected from the game, but think what could have been if he had a few more at-bats. The Reds were a team of opportunity last night, getting a nice matchup with a fly ball oriented pitcher in a great ballpark for home runs. They made sense, I guess that is why it is so hard for me to believe that the ownership levels on Votto and Frazier were so low.
This leads me to think that maybe sometimes we’re paying for external factors like Coors Field too often, instead of capitalizing on the best available matchups.
$250K Clean Up, $44 Entry, $25,000 to First Place
Lineup: Chris Heston, Corey Kluber, Yan Gomes, Joey Votto, DJ LeMahieu, Joey Gallo, Zack Cozart, Jose Bautista, Yoenis Cespedes, Giancarlo Stanton
Ownership Levels: Heston 5.2%, Kluber 56.9%, Votto 7.4%
$150K Grand Slam, $444 Entry, $25,000 to First Place
Lineup: Sonny Gray, Carlos Rodon, Brayan Pena, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Jay Bruce, Josh Reddick, Giancarlo Stanton
Ownership Levels: Votto 5.3%, Frazier 7.5%
$100K Cycle, $4 Entry, $10,000 to First Place
Lineup: Chris Heston, Anibal Sanchez, Yan Gomes, Joey Votto, Dee Gordon, Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton
Ownership Levels: Heston 3.1%, Sanchez 5.8%, Votto 6.1%, Frazier 6.8%
$4M Fantasy Baseball World Championship Q, $1,000 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to First Place
Lineup: Anthony DeScalafini, Sonny Gray, Brayan Pena, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Jay Bruce, Rajai Davis, Justin Upton
Ownership Levels: Votto 14.3%, Frazier 12.7%
$60K Gold Glove, $1,060 Entry, $20,000 to First Place
Lineup: Sonny Gray, Matt Shoemaker, Stephen Vogt, Joey Votto, Jeff Baker, Martin Prado, Zack Cozart, Rajai Davis, Josh Reddick, Giancarlo Stanton
Ownership Levels: Votto 11.7%
Again, much like FanDuel’s top players, DraftKings leaderboard were inundated with Cincinnati Reds players, namely Joey Votto and Todd Frazier, with a sprinkling of Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart.
As compared to FanDuel, Heston’s ownership levels were a bit higher, but I’m guessing that is as a result of the need for two starting pitchers, as well as the extreme salary relief Heston brought to the table.
Using Heston paired with a second pitcher allowed for the players to reach up for expensive, but necessary players like Votto, Frazier and Giancarlo Stanton.
Like I mentioned above, this was one of those nights where it paid to be “contrarian.” Rather than spending on the bats in Coors Field, the winning approach was to essentially avoid the game, and fire out the Big Red Machine. Notice that of the winning players from either site, only two used players from Coors Field, and each winner, only used one player each, Jhonny Peralta and DJ LeMahieu (some of the only standouts from last night’s game).
It paid to say NO last night.